Covid19

keepit wrote:Apparently Covid 19 may have mutated into a virus that is not necessarily more lethal (maybe even less lethal) but quite a bit more contagious.

keepit wrote: It could be that Harvey, ITN, IBD, and gfm will be right in the end and covid19 will become nothing more than another carona virus "cold".

keepit wrote:
Apparently Covid 19 may have mutated into a virus that is not necessarily more lethal (maybe even less lethal) but quite a bit more contagious. That would make it more lethal in a sense because more people will become infected.

keepit wrote:
It could be that Harvey, ITN, IBD, and gfm will be right in the end and covid19 will become nothing more than another carona virus "cold". A lot of people will die on the way to that eventuality IF that does happen.

keepit wrote:
Apparently Covid 19 may have mutated into a virus that is not necessarily more lethal (maybe even less lethal) but quite a bit more contagious. That would make it more lethal in a sense because more people will become infected.
It could be that Harvey, ITN, IBD, and gfm will be right in the end and covid19 will become nothing more than another carona virus "cold". A lot of people will die on the way to that eventuality IF that does happen.

keepit wrote:
IBD,
Just some paranoid ramblings.

ITN,
C'mon ITN. You can make that calculation.

keepit wrote:
gfm,
As i understand it covid19 stands for corona virus December 2019. The part that mutated (not sure) is one or more of the spikes on the outside and that makes it more contagious but yes, it is still the same, approximately, virus.

keepit wrote:
From what i heard the mutation makes it more contagious and less lethal but these are preliminary findings fro what i heard.
Why are you so argumentative?

keepit wrote:
You're more trouble than you're worth but i'll answer it anyway.

keepit wrote:
To start with those little sprouts on the outside of the virus are what the virus uses to gain entry into the cell.

keepit wrote:
The genetic material that is injected through the sprouts is what causes the illness.

keepit wrote:
As i understand it the sprouts have mutated making them capable of doing a more efficient job at gaining entry (more contagious).

keepit wrote:
Also as i understand it the genetic material may be becoming less efficient at causing illness.

keepit wrote:
So, if, for example, the genetic material becomes, let's say 90% less effective at causing serious disease and the sprouts become, let's say 50% more effective at transmitting disease (more contagious), then there will be a lot more people sick and more people dying (in a sense more lethal).

keepit wrote:
You're more trouble than you're worth but i'll answer it anyway.
To start with those little sprouts on the outside of the virus are what the virus uses to gain entry into the cell. The genetic material that is injected through the sprouts is what causes the illness. As i understand it the sprouts have mutated making them capable of doing a more efficient job at gaining entry (more contagious). Also as i understand it the genetic material may be becoming less efficient at causing illness.
So, if, for example, the genetic material becomes, let's say 90% less effective at causing serious disease and the sprouts become, let's say 50% more effective at transmitting disease (more contagious), then there will be a lot more people sick and more people dying (in a sense more lethal).

HarveyH55 wrote:

keepit wrote:
You're more trouble than you're worth but i'll answer it anyway.
To start with those little sprouts on the outside of the virus are what the virus uses to gain entry into the cell. The genetic material that is injected through the sprouts is what causes the illness. As i understand it the sprouts have mutated making them capable of doing a more efficient job at gaining entry (more contagious). Also as i understand it the genetic material may be becoming less efficient at causing illness.
So, if, for example, the genetic material becomes, let's say 90% less effective at causing serious disease and the sprouts become, let's say 50% more effective at transmitting disease (more contagious), then there will be a lot more people sick and more people dying (in a sense more lethal).

All a virus does is carry enough genic code to make more copies of itself. The 'illness', is simply the host's immune response to the infection. There are a lot of different types of cells, each with different functions, which require different structure. Tissues and organs are made up of specific cells, attach to each other. Cells aren't a sealed container, and they interact with other kinds of cells. They need to breath, feed, and excrete. Viruses need a 'key' to get into a cell, which is a genetic code. The virus that has a valid code, gets to reproduce a lot of copies of itself, before the infected cell is destroyed. Some of the copies infect nearby cells, some are ejected from the host (cough/sneeze).

Antibodies, are basically tags, and keyed to a specific infection. Once they successfully attach, white blood cells can destroy the source, quickly. Antibodies don't do anything, until you get infected with the same virus. The difference is that the virus doesn't get enough time to reproduce enough copies, to trigger the usual immune responses, like a fever, cough, sneezing...

It's the aggressive immune response that kills people, usually already weakened by other medical issues. This is also why it takes a long time to develop safe and effective vaccines. They need to determine the minimal dose, that still triggers the production of antibodies. An excessively large dose, will trigger a very aggressive immune response, even in healthy volunteers, and could be deadly. A normal infection takes days to create enough copies, to trigger an immune response. A vaccination shoves that amount in your arm, in a second, not days.

It's the aggressive immune response that kills people, usually already weakened by other medical issues.

Xadoman wrote:
Paradoxically the healthier the person the more aggressive the immune response. Hispanic flu in 1918 took mostly young and healthy.
Corona takes old people with many preexisting conditions. Their immune response in not aggressive.

Xadoman wrote:

It's the aggressive immune response that kills people, usually already weakened by other medical issues.

Paradoxically the healthier the person the more aggressive the immune response. Hispanic flu in 1918 took mostly young and healthy.
Corona takes old people with many preexisting conditions. Their immune response in not aggressive.

keepit wrote:
Too subtle for you ITN.

keepit wrote:
Duncan,
No, but i have 5 risk factors. If i get it, i won't even have time to make it to the hospital.

Xadoman wrote:

It's the aggressive immune response that kills people, usually already weakened by other medical issues.

Paradoxically the healthier the person the more aggressive the immune response. Hispanic flu in 1918 took mostly young and healthy.
Corona takes old people with many preexisting conditions. Their immune response in not aggressive.

keepit wrote:
Duncan,
No, but i have 5 risk factors. If i get it, i won't even have time to make it to the hospital.

keepit wrote:
ITN,
I made a misprint. Maybe that's what threw you off. Sorry.
I'll rephrase: Let's say the virus, after mutation, only kills 90% as many infected people as it did before mutation. But since it has become more contagious, twice as many people will get infected..
Therefore, more people will die even though the mortality rate per
infection is less. For example, !0% mortality rate x 50 infections is less deaths than 9% mortality rate x 100 infections. "In a sense" this is what i'm calling "more lethal" even though it isn't the classic way of using the phrase "more lethal". Words and phrases can have more than one meaning.
If you say you don't follow this, i call baloney on you.

keepit wrote:
Think of it this way gfm. You buy a new chevy car and put a motorola radio in it. Then you decide to put a blaupunkt radio in it. Is it a different car or is it still a chevy?
The radio is analogous to the covid spikes.

gfm7175 wrote:

keepit wrote:
Think of it this way gfm. You buy a new chevy car and put a motorola radio in it. Then you decide to put a blaupunkt radio in it. Is it a different car or is it still a chevy?
The radio is analogous to the covid spikes.

Radios are not diseases, nor are they cars.

There's a lot of game playing going on in order to keep infection numbers up, such as classifying "potential cases" as "cases". Then, the media can keep referring to "spikes" and "doubling" and "increases" and other likewise lingo... It's just fear mongering, and you're falling for it.

keepit wrote:
ITN,
I made a misprint. Maybe that's what threw you off. Sorry.

keepit wrote:
I'll rephrase: Let's say the virus, after mutation, only kills 90% as many infected people as it did before mutation. But since it has become more contagious, twice as many people will get infected..

keepit wrote:
Therefore, more people will die even though the mortality rate per
infection is less. For example, !0% mortality rate x 50 infections is less deaths than 9% mortality rate x 100 infections. "In a sense" this is what i'm calling "more lethal" even though it isn't the classic way of using the phrase "more lethal". Words and phrases can have more than one meaning.

keepit wrote:
If you say you don't follow this, i call baloney on you.

keepit wrote:
Think of it this way gfm. You buy a new chevy car and put a motorola radio in it. Then you decide to put a blaupunkt radio in it. Is it a different car or is it still a chevy?
The radio is analogous to the covid spikes.

keepit wrote:
Think of it this way gfm. You buy a new chevy car and put a motorola radio in it. Then you decide to put a blaupunkt radio in it. Is it a different car or is it still a chevy?
The radio is analogous to the covid spikes.

keepit wrote: Think of it this way gfm. You buy a new chevy car and put a motorola radio in it. Then you decide to put a blaupunkt radio in it. Is it a different car or is it still a chevy? The radio is analogous to the covid spikes.

IBdaMann wrote:

keepit wrote: Think of it this way gfm. You buy a new chevy car and put a motorola radio in it. Then you decide to put a blaupunkt radio in it. Is it a different car or is it still a chevy? The radio is analogous to the covid spikes.

Think of it this way, keepit. You own a Chevy with no radio. One year, during flu season you install a used Motorola radio in your Chevy and discover that its performance is weak and doesn't work well. The following flu season you buy a highly-touted, over-hyped Blaupunkt radio manufactured in Wuhan, China. It gives a truly weak performance for a couple of days and dies. Nonetheless all of your neighbors exclaim "You got Blaupunkt!" when they find out. They flood the internet and social media with photos of your Blaupunkt. News of your Blaupunk go viral and you can't figure out why. You try to tell everyone you meet that your Blaupunkt doesn't even work! ... but they all give you funny stares like you are a conspiracy theorist nutcase. People change their entire lives because of your Blaupunkt. Schools are closed. Businesses shut. The economy starts to suffer. The very word "stereo" is replaced with "Blaupunkt." This whole thing is absurd. The world has gone nuts. The MSM runs stories on the awesome power of your Blaupunkt 24/7 and how it has altered governments and international arrangements. Travel has been altered globally.

Yep, it's still a Chevy.

.

keepit wrote:
James,
I like texas. It's too hot though in the summer.

IBD,
If you keep spreading bull too much and too long, you'll start to like it and believe it.

keepit wrote:
James,
I like texas. It's too hot though in the summer.
I met my Polish, Jewish wife in texas. She divorced me though but she still likes me.

IBD,
If you keep spreading bull too much and too long, you'll start to like it and believe it.