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Meteorologists are getting better at forecasting "extreme weather events"


Meteorologists are getting better at forecasting "extreme weather events"29-09-2014 15:14
James_S
☆☆☆☆☆
(5)
In October 1987, UK weather forecaster Michael Fish famously dismissed fears that a hurricane was on the way, only to be proved disastrously wrong just hours later.

While technically not a hurricane, the storm that battered southern England was the worst for nearly 300 years, causing 18 deaths and £2bn worth of damage.

But such forecasting catastrophes are now a thing of the past, meteorologists would have us believe.

The UK's Met Office says its four-day forecast is now as accurate as its one-day forecast was 30 years ago.

And Louis Uccellini, director of the National Weather Service, part of the US government's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, says: "We can now predict extreme weather events five to seven days in advance.

"Twenty years ago we would only have been able to look one day ahead."

These improvements have only come about after investing billions in better satellites, weather stations and supercomputers.

But with more than a third of the world's total economic output affected by weather, according to US data specialists Weather Analytics, such investment was essential.

Read more:
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-29256322
http://www.scienceclarified.com/Ca-Ch/Carbon-Dioxide.html
http://www.theguardian.com/world/natural-disasters
30-09-2014 19:55
HappySikalengo
☆☆☆☆☆
(2)
Hi James, found this very interesting.
03-12-2019 21:28
Ewynne
☆☆☆☆☆
(1)
Hi James,
I am currently studying extreme weather due to climate change and would like to know if you could direct me to a good website on the topic.
03-12-2019 23:03
James___
★★★★☆
(1825)
James_S wrote:
In October 1987, UK weather forecaster Michael Fish famously dismissed fears that a hurricane was on the way, only to be proved disastrously wrong just hours later.

While technically not a hurricane, the storm that battered southern England was the worst for nearly 300 years, causing 18 deaths and £2bn worth of damage.

But such forecasting catastrophes are now a thing of the past, meteorologists would have us believe.

The UK's Met Office says its four-day forecast is now as accurate as its one-day forecast was 30 years ago.

And Louis Uccellini, director of the National Weather Service, part of the US government's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, says: "We can now predict extreme weather events five to seven days in advance.

"Twenty years ago we would only have been able to look one day ahead."

These improvements have only come about after investing billions in better satellites, weather stations and supercomputers.

But with more than a third of the world's total economic output affected by weather, according to US data specialists Weather Analytics, such investment was essential.

Read more:
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-29256322
http://www.scienceclarified.com/Ca-Ch/Carbon-Dioxide.html
http://www.theguardian.com/world/natural-disasters



One subject I plan on researching is short term (3 - 5 year) weather patterns. From France to Norway I think I've observed a possible trend and it's cause.
04-12-2019 23:11
HarveyH55
★★★★☆
(1507)
Wow, wish they would send some of the advance equipment to Florida. Two days, with fair confidence around here. Three days and more is wishful thinking. They predict severe thunder storms, and we get a light rain. Of course, during the rainy season, it can go either way. During hurricane season, they can track a storm, and predict a path, but you still have to watch constantly, landfall can still change by the hour, even turn and ride the coast a while longer. We can't predict whether a storm is going to form or not, until it does. We had 18 named storms, but only 6 hurricanes, 3 major.
05-12-2019 02:42
James___
★★★★☆
(1825)
HarveyH55 wrote:
Wow, wish they would send some of the advance equipment to Florida. Two days, with fair confidence around here. Three days and more is wishful thinking. They predict severe thunder storms, and we get a light rain. Of course, during the rainy season, it can go either way. During hurricane season, they can track a storm, and predict a path, but you still have to watch constantly, landfall can still change by the hour, even turn and ride the coast a while longer. We can't predict whether a storm is going to form or not, until it does. We had 18 named storms, but only 6 hurricanes, 3 major.



What I plan on researching could actually have an effect on this. I guess with having lived in both Norway and Florida, I am aware of what affects their weather.
And as it happens, that also affects Europe's weather.

edited to add: it will rain in Seattle tomorrow. And in Olympia, it will be foggy.
Of course it always rains in Seattle and is always foggy in Olympia. Predicting the weather there is like getting up in the morning. Did you set your alarm clock?
Edited on 05-12-2019 03:01
05-12-2019 18:33
Into the NightProfile picture★★★★★
(10166)
James___ wrote:
HarveyH55 wrote:
Wow, wish they would send some of the advance equipment to Florida. Two days, with fair confidence around here. Three days and more is wishful thinking. They predict severe thunder storms, and we get a light rain. Of course, during the rainy season, it can go either way. During hurricane season, they can track a storm, and predict a path, but you still have to watch constantly, landfall can still change by the hour, even turn and ride the coast a while longer. We can't predict whether a storm is going to form or not, until it does. We had 18 named storms, but only 6 hurricanes, 3 major.



What I plan on researching could actually have an effect on this. I guess with having lived in both Norway and Florida, I am aware of what affects their weather.
And as it happens, that also affects Europe's weather.

edited to add: it will rain in Seattle tomorrow. And in Olympia, it will be foggy.

Your forecast is wrong. It is foggy in Seattle today while Olympia is reporting overcast at 1800ft and light rain.
James___ wrote:
Of course it always rains in Seattle and is always foggy in Olympia.

Not today!
James___ wrote:
Predicting the weather there is like getting up in the morning.
Did you set your alarm clock?

You missed. Must've slept through your alarm.



The Parrot Killer
05-12-2019 19:42
IBdaMannProfile picture★★★★★
(5190)
James___ wrote: One subject I plan on researching is short term (3 - 5 year) weather patterns. From France to Norway I think I've observed a possible trend and it's cause.


James__, you know that I don't want to be a wet blanket. You know that I would never tell you to not research and to not learn.

Please pursue your passions. When this particular research project of yours fails miserably, as is inevitable, and you are scratching your head as to why, the answer is in your above statement.

There is no such thing as a weather "pattern" or "trend." As such, you might as well research weather "gremlins" or "leprechauns." There can be no success at the end of that road. Otherwise, good luck and I hope your endeavors generate interesting offshoots that prove worthwhile.


.


Global Warming: The preferred religion of the scientifically illiterate.

Printing dollars to pay debt doesn't increase the number of dollars. - keepit

When the alt-physics birds sing about "indivisible bodies," we've got pure BS. - VernerHornung

Ah the "Valid Data" myth of ITN/IBD. - tmiddles

Ceist - I couldn't agree with you more. But when money and religion are involved, and there are people who value them above all else, then the lies begin. - trafn

You are completely misunderstanding their use of the word "accumulation"! - Climate Scientist.

The Stefan-Boltzman equation doesn't come up with the correct temperature if greenhouse gases are not considered - Hank

:*sigh* Not the "raw data" crap. - Leafsdude

IB STILL hasn't explained what Planck's Law means. Just more hand waving that it applies to everything and more asserting that the greenhouse effect 'violates' it.- Ceist
06-12-2019 01:58
GasGuzzler
★★★★☆
(1518)
IBdaMann wrote:
There is no such thing as a weather "pattern"


Thank you!! Yes, "changing weather patterns'' is becoming quite the buzz word phrase and soon it will need a seat at the right hand of the great godess Climate.

IBdaMann, could we get a link to the Manual please?
Edited on 06-12-2019 02:01
06-12-2019 02:20
James___
★★★★☆
(1825)
GasGuzzler wrote:
IBdaMann wrote:
There is no such thing as a weather "pattern"


Thank you!! Yes, "changing weather patterns'' is becoming quite the buzz word phrase and soon it will need a seat at the right hand of the great godess Climate.

IBdaMann, could we get a link to the Manual please?



In the northern hemisphere it is well known that the jet stream influences weather patterns. It also can direct warm air from the Gulf Stream to England.
It is interesting because if the jet stream follows the Gulf Stream north then the likelihood of an extreme weather event in England increases.

https://www.livescience.com/50998-jet-stream-controls-atlantic-climate-cycles.html
06-12-2019 04:16
IBdaMannProfile picture★★★★★
(5190)
GasGuzzler wrote:
IBdaMann wrote:
There is no such thing as a weather "pattern"


Thank you!! Yes, "changing weather patterns'' is becoming quite the buzz word phrase and soon it will need a seat at the right hand of the great godess Climate.

IBdaMann, could we get a link to the Manual please?


Ask and ye shall receive.

From The MANUAL:

Weather Trend: noun
The belief among Climate Scientists that since Climate has assumed the role of Chief Central Administrator for all weather on earth that weather is somehow no longer a random event and can therefore have trends. This leaves weather open to "correlation analysis" and the discovery of teleconnections. Otherwise there can be no trends in weather because weather is a series of random events, which precludes any causal relationships and thus cannot have trends. This belief falls under Settled Science.

.


Global Warming: The preferred religion of the scientifically illiterate.

Printing dollars to pay debt doesn't increase the number of dollars. - keepit

When the alt-physics birds sing about "indivisible bodies," we've got pure BS. - VernerHornung

Ah the "Valid Data" myth of ITN/IBD. - tmiddles

Ceist - I couldn't agree with you more. But when money and religion are involved, and there are people who value them above all else, then the lies begin. - trafn

You are completely misunderstanding their use of the word "accumulation"! - Climate Scientist.

The Stefan-Boltzman equation doesn't come up with the correct temperature if greenhouse gases are not considered - Hank

:*sigh* Not the "raw data" crap. - Leafsdude

IB STILL hasn't explained what Planck's Law means. Just more hand waving that it applies to everything and more asserting that the greenhouse effect 'violates' it.- Ceist
06-12-2019 05:06
GasGuzzler
★★★★☆
(1518)
IBdaMann wrote:
GasGuzzler wrote:
IBdaMann wrote:
There is no such thing as a weather "pattern"


Thank you!! Yes, "changing weather patterns'' is becoming quite the buzz word phrase and soon it will need a seat at the right hand of the great godess Climate.

IBdaMann, could we get a link to the Manual please?


Ask and ye shall receive.

Thank you sir! AAHHH, ain't she a beauty?


spot-
Into the Night is also has delusions of comptance
Attached image:

06-12-2019 15:38
IBdaMannProfile picture★★★★★
(5190)
James___ wrote: In the northern hemisphere it is well known that the jet stream influences weather patterns. It also can direct warm air from the Gulf Stream to England.

Sure. All roads lead to Rome but all Climate leads to England. I hope you weren't expecting Climate to somehow wander into Scotland to cause haggis forcings and bagpipe feedbacks.

James___ wrote: It is interesting because if the jet stream follows the Gulf Stream north then the likelihood of an extreme weather event in England increases.

The article you cited doesn't mention "extreme weather." I was hoping the article would have defined that.

.


Global Warming: The preferred religion of the scientifically illiterate.

Printing dollars to pay debt doesn't increase the number of dollars. - keepit

When the alt-physics birds sing about "indivisible bodies," we've got pure BS. - VernerHornung

Ah the "Valid Data" myth of ITN/IBD. - tmiddles

Ceist - I couldn't agree with you more. But when money and religion are involved, and there are people who value them above all else, then the lies begin. - trafn

You are completely misunderstanding their use of the word "accumulation"! - Climate Scientist.

The Stefan-Boltzman equation doesn't come up with the correct temperature if greenhouse gases are not considered - Hank

:*sigh* Not the "raw data" crap. - Leafsdude

IB STILL hasn't explained what Planck's Law means. Just more hand waving that it applies to everything and more asserting that the greenhouse effect 'violates' it.- Ceist
06-12-2019 17:33
James___
★★★★☆
(1825)
IBdaMann wrote:
James___ wrote: In the northern hemisphere it is well known that the jet stream influences weather patterns. It also can direct warm air from the Gulf Stream to England.

Sure. All roads lead to Rome but all Climate leads to England. I hope you weren't expecting Climate to somehow wander into Scotland to cause haggis forcings and bagpipe feedbacks.

James___ wrote: It is interesting because if the jet stream follows the Gulf Stream north then the likelihood of an extreme weather event in England increases.

The article you cited doesn't mention "extreme weather." I was hoping the article would have defined that.

.



Your post demonstrates the need for you to draw attention to yourself. If you would've said "fake news" then you'd be showing yourself for being a true Republican. Party before country, right?




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