Hurricane Dorian, sign of Global Warming?

Climate-Debate.com > Discussion Forum > Climate debate in general > Hurricane Dorian, sign of Global Warming?

Page 1 of 2

Hurricane Dorian, sign of Global Warming?07-09-2019 01:30
HarveyH55★★★★★ (5197)	Really? Think it's in poor taste to use this for politics, it has even dissipated, yet. Several thousand people are still missing in the Bahamas, many will probably never be found. True, this store was different in many ways, from past storms. I've got about 35 years or so experience, living in Florida. Slow moving storms, do tend to stall, when they make landfall, nothing unusual there. Dorian spun up pretty quick, from a maybe, to a major storm in days. It didn't have a lot of forward speed though, predicting a track was difficult, the stall over the Bahamas, and duration was unique though. Doubt it had anything to do with climate change, hurricanes don't drive themselves, just spin. Upper atmosphere winds move the storm. A lot of rising sea level talk, but should the seas have risen, before the storm surge? Would the islands been complaining about losing land, long before this storm? Powerful storms push a lot of water, lot of coastal flooding. Usually what causes most of the storm damage. There were claims that most of the Cat 5 storms have happened in the past 20 years... We've only had the tools to measure the storms consistently for about twenty years. Past few years, the started naming sub-tropical storms, and we still don't run through the 22 names each year. We are getting fewer named storms. They send planes into the storms, hurricane-hunters, which take measurements, which seems odd, with all the radar, weather satellites, and other tools, people have to go thrill-seeking on the taxpayer dollar(s). Maybe it's the man-made CO2 from those planes, that are boosting these storms... Apparently, Trump has been catching hell over a hurricane tracking map, he Sharpied in part of Alabama, early Sunday morning, saying they could get some serious damage. Dorian was stalled until Tuesday, could have gone anywhere north and west, when it start moving again. Computer models were still predicting Florida landfall (messing up my work scheduled), almost had to risk breaking a curfew in place (lifted late Tuesday night). Alabama could have gotten tropical storm winds, had Dorian made landfall in Florida, and cut through the middle of the state, as some of the models suggested, on Sunday. Could have been worse for all the Gulf states, had it crossed the state, and fueled up in the Gulf. Blank hurricane tracking maps use to be popular, readily available, and people were encouraged to do the tracking themselves. Think mostly, to get people to pay attention to the progress and track, and prepare as needed. Past decade or so, it's been a lot of media hype, get out and buy lots of storm supplies. I'm not sure how useful a generator is during the storm, since you'd want that to run outdoors, in the wind and driving rain (not ideal). I can see some areas, where it typically takes a day or two, to get power restored. But mostly, I think it encourages people to fire them up in garages, or other enclosed areas, risking carbon monoxide poisoning. Hurricane season is about a week away from the peak, 8 named storms, out of 22, just this on major hurricane, so far. Been a very light season so far, but only half way done, maybe it'll pick up, 'at an alarming rate', to mis-quote Al Gore, slightly...
07-09-2019 01:47
IBdaMann★★★★★ (14417)	HarveyH55 wrote: A lot of rising sea level talk, but should the seas have risen, before the storm surge? Would the islands been complaining about losing land, long before this storm? Back in 1949 there was no talk about "rising sea level" when the Brits began planning a military base on an atoll in the Indian Ocean. When the construction was completed in 1951 the highest point was less that two meters above the sea level. The base is still there and no perceptible rise in sea level has occurred. It takes a special kind of gullible to believe that the ocean is catastrophically rising. . I don't think i can [define it]. I just kind of get a feel for the phrase. - keepit A Spaghetti strainer with the faucet running, retains water- tmiddles Clouds don't trap heat. Clouds block cold. - Spongy Iris Printing dollars to pay debt doesn't increase the number of dollars. - keepit If Venus were a black body it would have a much much lower temperature than what we found there.- tmiddles Ah the "Valid Data" myth of ITN/IBD. - tmiddles Ceist - I couldn't agree with you more. But when money and religion are involved, and there are people who value them above all else, then the lies begin. - trafn You are completely misunderstanding their use of the word "accumulation"! - Climate Scientist. The Stefan-Boltzman equation doesn't come up with the correct temperature if greenhouse gases are not considered - Hank :sigh* Not the "raw data" crap.* - Leafsdude IB STILL hasn't explained what Planck's Law means. Just more hand waving that it applies to everything and more asserting that the greenhouse effect 'violates' it.- Ceist
07-09-2019 03:26
Into the Night★★★★★ (21600)	IBdaMann wrote: HarveyH55 wrote: A lot of rising sea level talk, but should the seas have risen, before the storm surge? Would the islands been complaining about losing land, long before this storm? Back in 1949 there was no talk about "rising sea level" when the Brits began planning a military base on an atoll in the Indian Ocean. When the construction was completed in 1951 the highest point was less that two meters above the sea level. The base is still there and no perceptible rise in sea level has occurred. It takes a special kind of gullible to believe that the ocean is catastrophically rising. . In 1851, the City of Seattle was founded. Other than the Denny Regrade area, the waterfront in Seattle is the same (just built up more). No perceptible rise in Puget Sound (which is connected to the sea) has occurred in all that time. The Parrot Killer Debunked in my sig. - tmiddles Google keeps track of paranoid talk and i'm not on their list. I've been evaluated and certified. - keepit nuclear powered ships do not require nuclear fuel. - Swan While it is true that fossils do not burn it is also true that fossil fuels burn very well - Swan
07-09-2019 03:35
HarveyH55★★★★★ (5197)	Florida is surrounded by ocean, we get beach erosion, like the past few days, from the storms, but no other 'sinking' problems. Most of the tourist beaches have sea walls, since there are hundreds of vacation homes just on the other side of the street. If we were losing beach, or the rising seas were causing great storm surge, it would have been very obvious, and a lot of media coverage (rich folk complain the loudest). None of the climate change crap was true, other than Dorian stalling out over an island for so long. Each storm is a little different, we get surprises sometimes, it's nature, in all it's glory. We got super lucky on this one.
07-09-2019 05:54
tmiddles★★★★★ (3979)	HarveyH55 wrote: There were claims that most of the Cat 5 storms have happened in the past 20 years... Consider this a good idiot detector issue. projected total increases by 2100 of about 2-11% for tropical cyclone intensity That's from the noaa and it's for 2100! 2% by 2100. So yeah. Nonissue.

07-09-2019 07:35
HarveyH55★★★★★ (5197)	tmiddles wrote: HarveyH55 wrote: There were claims that most of the Cat 5 storms have happened in the past 20 years... Consider this a good idiot detector issue. projected total increases by 2100 of about 2-11% for tropical cyclone intensity That's from the noaa and it's for 2100! 2% by 2100. So yeah. Nonissue. The Dorian models didn't work out all that well. We were getting wind and rain, before the models kept it offshore. It came within 90 miles of making landfall. They can't predict a few days, with confidence, how do they figure eighty years from now? They still have to wait until a storm forms, get organized, computer never predicts that. They've been working on hurricane models a lot longer than climate change models, and we are to believe they are better? There are a lot of people that will believe anything though. Store shelves are emptied every storm that could hit Florida, even this far inland. But, if it's bad enough you could use all that stuff, likely you will have to evacuate. Can't take all that with you. The rest of the time, it might be a day or two, at most, before most roads are clear, enough power restored, and some stores open again. Usually there is bottled water, ice, some food available through FEMA or Red Cross. Never had to do either, in 35 years, quite a few storms.
07-09-2019 09:02
Into the Night★★★★★ (21600)	HarveyH55 wrote: Florida is surrounded by ocean, we get beach erosion, like the past few days, from the storms, but no other 'sinking' problems. Most of the tourist beaches have sea walls, since there are hundreds of vacation homes just on the other side of the street. If we were losing beach, or the rising seas were causing great storm surge, it would have been very obvious, and a lot of media coverage (rich folk complain the loudest). None of the climate change crap was true, other than Dorian stalling out over an island for so long. Each storm is a little different, we get surprises sometimes, it's nature, in all it's glory. We got super lucky on this one. Unfortunately the Bahamas didn't get so lucky. It really got smashed with this one. It's gonna take quite awhile to pick up the mess and get things back to some kind of normalcy. The Parrot Killer Debunked in my sig. - tmiddles Google keeps track of paranoid talk and i'm not on their list. I've been evaluated and certified. - keepit nuclear powered ships do not require nuclear fuel. - Swan While it is true that fossils do not burn it is also true that fossil fuels burn very well - Swan
07-09-2019 09:03
Into the Night★★★★★ (21600)	tmiddles wrote: HarveyH55 wrote: There were claims that most of the Cat 5 storms have happened in the past 20 years... Consider this a good idiot detector issue. projected total increases by 2100 of about 2-11% for tropical cyclone intensity That's from the noaa and it's for 2100! 2% by 2100. So yeah. Nonissue. Believing in NOAA's Holy Entrails, eh? The Parrot Killer Debunked in my sig. - tmiddles Google keeps track of paranoid talk and i'm not on their list. I've been evaluated and certified. - keepit nuclear powered ships do not require nuclear fuel. - Swan While it is true that fossils do not burn it is also true that fossil fuels burn very well - Swan
07-09-2019 09:22
tmiddles★★★★★ (3979)	Into the Night wrote: Believing in NOAA'... You don't believe data is ever valid. Also you didn't read my post. I said according to their own data. You're so used to insisting nothing can be debated.
07-09-2019 18:13
HarveyH55★★★★★ (5197)	https://www.wftv.com/news/national-news/ap-top-news/agency-reverses-course-on-trumps-alabama-hurricane-claim/983599577 NOAA still doesn't want to admit to the politics, but realize that their own data, isn't going away, and to late to alter it. The model paths aren't gospel either, though I'm sure they have a lot of confidence in them. Also sort of guess, that the President does have a little bit to say in their funding, and their forecast models predict another 4 years of Trump. We really didn't get to see all the forecast models, there were a couple hundred, before they stop giving access to the full sets. They pick only about a dozen to share with the public. I was nice to look at the full picture, and see where the bulk of them were going, but there were also several other trends with dozens of models going different directions, some just went wild. Alabama wasn't likely to be in Dorian's direct path, but it was a big storm, and could easily have gotten tropical storm conditions. All the models become less reliable on landfall. Tropical storms aren't too bad, but you still need to take precautions. Alabama should have simply acknowledge there was some potential. Trump probably shouldn't have sent anything their way, or really been concerned, not our first storm. The disturbing part, is these agencies using a tragedy for politics, an opportunity to bash Trump. He was just giving a heads up, based on experience, and the information tossed on his desk, the media. Information thrown out to the general public, who aren't meteorologists, and fortunately, not 'climatologists'. Caution isn't a bad thing with strong storms, if there is some chance, it's best to know you need to keep close watch. The media over-hypes the threat anyway, why hold the president to a different standard. He was trying to be helpful, not doing thing bad at all. Maybe less informed, or even misinformed, but he had good intentions, and they should have left it at that. Early on, before it hit the Bahamas, the forecast path was directly heading toward my house, direct hit. It wasn't a Cat 5 then, nor was it predicted to be a major storm either, a maybe Cat 3. Regardless, it was a bad storm, lot of damage to be dealt with, they all should just let the bickering go, and focus on the recovery efforts. We still have half the hurricane season to go, really more pressing matters for all of them to focus on right now. The Bahamas are a British Territory, but oddly enough, I've not read or heard anything from the UK, on what they are doing to send aid, or assist in any way. I realize that it takes a while for a boat to get across the ocean, but they can still make a statement, make use of resources nearby... Guess they only care about the taxes being collected, and just leave their people to fend for themselves. I have a lot of confidence in the island folks, very resourceful people, not afraid of work either. A lot of the mess will get reused, rather than thrown in the landfill, or shoved into the ocean, like here in America. They still need a lot of help though, and supplies, and a little luck, still could be more storms this year. I'm sure the cruise ship industry will be helping quite a bit as well, lot of island, relatively close by, is great business for them. Lot of people like the short cruise experience.
07-09-2019 20:00
Into the Night★★★★★ (21600)	tmiddles wrote: Into the Night wrote: Believing in NOAA'... You don't believe data is ever valid. Also you didn't read my post. I said according to their own data. You're so used to insisting nothing can be debated. Contextomy fallacy. Redirection fallacy. The Parrot Killer Debunked in my sig. - tmiddles Google keeps track of paranoid talk and i'm not on their list. I've been evaluated and certified. - keepit nuclear powered ships do not require nuclear fuel. - Swan While it is true that fossils do not burn it is also true that fossil fuels burn very well - Swan
07-09-2019 20:04
Into the Night★★★★★ (21600)	HarveyH55 wrote: https://www.wftv.com/news/national-news/ap-top-news/agency-reverses-course-on-trumps-alabama-hurricane-claim/983599577 NOAA still doesn't want to admit to the politics, but realize that their own data, isn't going away, and to late to alter it. The model paths aren't gospel either, though I'm sure they have a lot of confidence in them. Also sort of guess, that the President does have a little bit to say in their funding, and their forecast models predict another 4 years of Trump. We really didn't get to see all the forecast models, there were a couple hundred, before they stop giving access to the full sets. They pick only about a dozen to share with the public. I was nice to look at the full picture, and see where the bulk of them were going, but there were also several other trends with dozens of models going different directions, some just went wild. Alabama wasn't likely to be in Dorian's direct path, but it was a big storm, and could easily have gotten tropical storm conditions. All the models become less reliable on landfall. Tropical storms aren't too bad, but you still need to take precautions. Alabama should have simply acknowledge there was some potential. Trump probably shouldn't have sent anything their way, or really been concerned, not our first storm. The disturbing part, is these agencies using a tragedy for politics, an opportunity to bash Trump. He was just giving a heads up, based on experience, and the information tossed on his desk, the media. Information thrown out to the general public, who aren't meteorologists, and fortunately, not 'climatologists'. Caution isn't a bad thing with strong storms, if there is some chance, it's best to know you need to keep close watch. The media over-hypes the threat anyway, why hold the president to a different standard. He was trying to be helpful, not doing thing bad at all. Maybe less informed, or even misinformed, but he had good intentions, and they should have left it at that. Early on, before it hit the Bahamas, the forecast path was directly heading toward my house, direct hit. It wasn't a Cat 5 then, nor was it predicted to be a major storm either, a maybe Cat 3. Regardless, it was a bad storm, lot of damage to be dealt with, they all should just let the bickering go, and focus on the recovery efforts. We still have half the hurricane season to go, really more pressing matters for all of them to focus on right now. The Bahamas are a British Territory, but oddly enough, I've not read or heard anything from the UK, on what they are doing to send aid, or assist in any way. I realize that it takes a while for a boat to get across the ocean, but they can still make a statement, make use of resources nearby... Guess they only care about the taxes being collected, and just leave their people to fend for themselves. I have a lot of confidence in the island folks, very resourceful people, not afraid of work either. A lot of the mess will get reused, rather than thrown in the landfill, or shoved into the ocean, like here in America. They still need a lot of help though, and supplies, and a little luck, still could be more storms this year. I'm sure the cruise ship industry will be helping quite a bit as well, lot of island, relatively close by, is great business for them. Lot of people like the short cruise experience. The U.S. is trying to help, but it's difficult with no functioning airbase. Aid from the U.S. is coming in the form of ships and in cargo planes dropping in hopefully enough supplies to help out and get an airbase functioning again. Freeport airport last reported being under five feet of water before it went off the air from the hurricane. There's not much left of it. The Parrot Killer Debunked in my sig. - tmiddles Google keeps track of paranoid talk and i'm not on their list. I've been evaluated and certified. - keepit nuclear powered ships do not require nuclear fuel. - Swan While it is true that fossils do not burn it is also true that fossil fuels burn very well - Swan
07-09-2019 22:03
keepit ★★★★★ (3060)	With the predicted increase in intensity of hurricanes, should rebuilding be reconsidered? My sympathy to those who lost their lives, relatives, homes and businesses, i'm just thinking they might be better off starting where the hurricanes don't hit. Edited on 07-09-2019 22:05
07-09-2019 22:48
IBdaMann★★★★★ (14417)	keepit wrote: With the predicted increase in intensity of hurricanes, should rebuilding be reconsidered? My sympathy to those who lost their lives, relatives, homes and businesses, i'm just thinking they might be better off starting where the hurricanes don't hit. Weather cannot be predicted beyond a few days. . I don't think i can [define it]. I just kind of get a feel for the phrase. - keepit A Spaghetti strainer with the faucet running, retains water- tmiddles Clouds don't trap heat. Clouds block cold. - Spongy Iris Printing dollars to pay debt doesn't increase the number of dollars. - keepit If Venus were a black body it would have a much much lower temperature than what we found there.- tmiddles Ah the "Valid Data" myth of ITN/IBD. - tmiddles Ceist - I couldn't agree with you more. But when money and religion are involved, and there are people who value them above all else, then the lies begin. - trafn You are completely misunderstanding their use of the word "accumulation"! - Climate Scientist. The Stefan-Boltzman equation doesn't come up with the correct temperature if greenhouse gases are not considered - Hank :sigh* Not the "raw data" crap.* - Leafsdude IB STILL hasn't explained what Planck's Law means. Just more hand waving that it applies to everything and more asserting that the greenhouse effect 'violates' it.- Ceist
07-09-2019 23:22
HarveyH55★★★★★ (5197)	keepit wrote: With the predicted increase in intensity of hurricanes, should rebuilding be reconsidered? My sympathy to those who lost their lives, relatives, homes and businesses, i'm just thinking they might be better off starting where the hurricanes don't hit. Climate Change predictions are BS, more like prophesies. They don't have a very good track record, doubt they will improve. Hurricanes in the tropics, aren't new, and pre-date global warming by a century or two, least as long as the white man has been sailing ships this way. We've got plenty of proof on the sea floor. Really no way of knowing when or where the major damage will occur, large area. Life is hard, where ever you root. You work to live the best you can. The people living on the islands, like the life they have there, sometimes it's a lot of work, deadly, but most of the time, it's a good life. Dorian did some damage all the way up the eastern coast, up into Canada. Should all those people consider not rebuild as well? We all get hit occasionally by these storms, some can be pretty bad, but it's not all that often. Been almost 15 years in central Florida, since a storm ripped directly through. We have had hurricane force winds, and damage. The storms are around 200 miles wide...

08-09-2019 06:53
tmiddles★★★★★ (3979)	IBdaMann wrote: Weather cannot be predicted beyond a few days. IBD, just always wrong "A seven-day forecast can accurately predict the weather about 80 percent of the time and a five-day forecast can accurately predict the weather approximately 90 percent of the time." I can also predict winter will be cooler than summer. But I forgot your mantra: No data is ever use-able
08-09-2019 07:10
HarveyH55★★★★★ (5197)	Maybe you get 90% in your area, it's a coin toss around here. Just stepping outside, and looking at the clouds, is usually just as accurate as the weather report. Even with all the meteorologists and the focus on Dorian, who promised us inches of rain, and tropical storm winds as it passed (same day, live updates), we didn't get much rain or wind, inland anyway. Even much of the Florida cost didn't suffer much. Mostly bitching about beach erosion and sea turtle nests. Mathew followed a similar track a couple years ago, knocked down part of my fence... The thing with the 5-day forecast, is that the adjust that everyday, and don't usually remember the previous day's forecasts, usually similar, or close enough no to make use think. I remembered this weekend was suppose to be wet, but it's been dry, and should stay that way through Monday, after we already started the weekend, expecting rain. Figure it'll rain on Monday...
08-09-2019 09:14
Into the Night★★★★★ (21600)	keepit wrote: With the predicted increase in intensity of hurricanes, should rebuilding be reconsidered? My sympathy to those who lost their lives, relatives, homes and businesses, i'm just thinking they might be better off starting where the hurricanes don't hit. You cannot predict hurricanes. There also is no increase in the frequency or intensify of hurricanes. See the historic data at the National Hurricane Center. The Parrot Killer Debunked in my sig. - tmiddles Google keeps track of paranoid talk and i'm not on their list. I've been evaluated and certified. - keepit nuclear powered ships do not require nuclear fuel. - Swan While it is true that fossils do not burn it is also true that fossil fuels burn very well - Swan
08-09-2019 09:18
Into the Night★★★★★ (21600)	tmiddles wrote: IBdaMann wrote: Weather cannot be predicted beyond a few days. IBD, just always wrong "A seven-day forecast can accurately predict the weather about 80 percent of the time and a five-day forecast can accurately predict the weather approximately 90 percent of the time." I can also predict winter will be cooler than summer. But I forgot your mantra: No data is ever use-able Nope. Accurate weather can only be predicted about 24 hours out. It is not so much a prediction, it is like watching waves come in off the sea. The air masses and weather fronts have already formed. A generic outlook can be obtained for about 7-10 days, by looking at larger patterns in the weather that are already there. You cannot predict next month's hurricanes. As usual, you are trying to redirect from the subject. The Parrot Killer Debunked in my sig. - tmiddles Google keeps track of paranoid talk and i'm not on their list. I've been evaluated and certified. - keepit nuclear powered ships do not require nuclear fuel. - Swan While it is true that fossils do not burn it is also true that fossil fuels burn very well - Swan
08-09-2019 09:31
tmiddles★★★★★ (3979)	Into the Night wrote: tmiddles wrote: "A ...five-day forecast ...90 percent of the time." ...Accurate weather can only be predicted about 24 hours out... Where'd you get that? 90% isn't accurate?
08-09-2019 10:52
Into the Night★★★★★ (21600)	tmiddles wrote: Into the Night wrote: tmiddles wrote: "A ...five-day forecast ...90 percent of the time." ...Accurate weather can only be predicted about 24 hours out... Where'd you get that? 90% isn't accurate? 90% is a randU number. The Parrot Killer Debunked in my sig. - tmiddles Google keeps track of paranoid talk and i'm not on their list. I've been evaluated and certified. - keepit nuclear powered ships do not require nuclear fuel. - Swan While it is true that fossils do not burn it is also true that fossil fuels burn very well - Swan
08-09-2019 15:47
IBdaMann★★★★★ (14417)	tmiddles wrote:IBD, just always wrong We have long-since established that you are so desperate for me to be wrong, about something, anything, that you are more than willing to delude yourself into believing that I am wrong about everything. tmiddles wrote:"A seven-day forecast can accurately predict the weather about 80 percent of the time and a five-day forecast can accurately predict the weather approximately 90 percent of the time." Would you classify seven days as a few days? How about eight? Also, you are making the common error of confusing the word "predict" with "guess" and "speculate." There is no one that can predict what the weather will be ten days from now in Missoula, Montana but everyone can guess and everyone can speculate. ... and genius, I was contrasting "a few days" against a few years. tmiddles wrote:II can also predict winter will be cooler than summer. ... and yet you cannot predict the weather more than a few days out. tmiddles, always wrong and preaching it. . I don't think i can [define it]. I just kind of get a feel for the phrase. - keepit A Spaghetti strainer with the faucet running, retains water- tmiddles Clouds don't trap heat. Clouds block cold. - Spongy Iris Printing dollars to pay debt doesn't increase the number of dollars. - keepit If Venus were a black body it would have a much much lower temperature than what we found there.- tmiddles Ah the "Valid Data" myth of ITN/IBD. - tmiddles Ceist - I couldn't agree with you more. But when money and religion are involved, and there are people who value them above all else, then the lies begin. - trafn You are completely misunderstanding their use of the word "accumulation"! - Climate Scientist. The Stefan-Boltzman equation doesn't come up with the correct temperature if greenhouse gases are not considered - Hank :sigh* Not the "raw data" crap.* - Leafsdude IB STILL hasn't explained what Planck's Law means. Just more hand waving that it applies to everything and more asserting that the greenhouse effect 'violates' it.- Ceist
08-09-2019 19:58
HarveyH55★★★★★ (5197)	Last update on Dorian, was that it was offshore of Canada, and still a hurricane. I don't think this has anything to do with CO2, but it was an unusual storm. Other than the Bahamas and Carolina s, it did quite the damage it could have. I really expect a lot more rain, since it stay over water. I don't think the major storms are getting more frequent, and a little skeptical about increased intensity as well. Think they just have better tools, and can measure the rotational speed at the eye more accurately. Have noticed they aren't moving as fast lately, tend to weaken and stall quicker over land. Basically, where they make landfall, gets the worst damage. Sort of wonder if there a lot of things, we think are getting worse, simply because we have better tools to measure with, or changed the method of measurement. We most definitely aren't getting more storms. They have a list of 22 names for storms each year, which were assigned to storm that reached Tropical Storm status. Even with the new tools to measure, we still don't use half the list. Few years ago, they start naming sub-tropical storms, which don't always develop further. Not all severe weather in the tropics, are hurricanes in the making, we see plenty, just that it never lasts long, moves through fast. Just stands to reason, that in many fields, the tools and instruments have greatly improved over the past 50 years. We've also developed better methods, and computers are involved in most everything, automating a lot of stuff we did with pencil and paper, and manually entered into a computer. Maybe we just never knew exactly how things were, now we can see a lot better, and it only appears some things are getting worse. I paid close attention to Dorian, since I was in the early path, which change daily, but still close enough for most of it, as it passed Florida. They really hyped the speed of the eye wall, but I also notice the outer bands weren't all that bad. It was a large storm, about 200 miles wide at times. Guess it's just the first storm, I noticed the new numbers. Well have to pay more attention in the future.
08-09-2019 20:18
Into the Night★★★★★ (21600)	HarveyH55 wrote: Last update on Dorian, was that it was offshore of Canada, and still a hurricane. I don't think this has anything to do with CO2, but it was an unusual storm. Other than the Bahamas and Carolina s, it did quite the damage it could have. I really expect a lot more rain, since it stay over water. I don't think the major storms are getting more frequent, and a little skeptical about increased intensity as well. Think they just have better tools, and can measure the rotational speed at the eye more accurately. Have noticed they aren't moving as fast lately, tend to weaken and stall quicker over land. Basically, where they make landfall, gets the worst damage. Sort of wonder if there a lot of things, we think are getting worse, simply because we have better tools to measure with, or changed the method of measurement. We most definitely aren't getting more storms. They have a list of 22 names for storms each year, which were assigned to storm that reached Tropical Storm status. Even with the new tools to measure, we still don't use half the list. Few years ago, they start naming sub-tropical storms, which don't always develop further. Not all severe weather in the tropics, are hurricanes in the making, we see plenty, just that it never lasts long, moves through fast. Just stands to reason, that in many fields, the tools and instruments have greatly improved over the past 50 years. We've also developed better methods, and computers are involved in most everything, automating a lot of stuff we did with pencil and paper, and manually entered into a computer. Maybe we just never knew exactly how things were, now we can see a lot better, and it only appears some things are getting worse. I paid close attention to Dorian, since I was in the early path, which change daily, but still close enough for most of it, as it passed Florida. They really hyped the speed of the eye wall, but I also notice the outer bands weren't all that bad. It was a large storm, about 200 miles wide at times. Guess it's just the first storm, I noticed the new numbers. Well have to pay more attention in the future. It was an unusual one. It came with such speed toward Florida the early predictions were that it would pass over Florida and finally turn north into Alabama. When it slowed and stalled over the Bahamas, that prediction was garbage, and Florida was spared the brunt of the storm at the expense of Bahama. It turned north offshore, and wandered into the Carolinas instead. What a mess it left in Bahama. The Parrot Killer Debunked in my sig. - tmiddles Google keeps track of paranoid talk and i'm not on their list. I've been evaluated and certified. - keepit nuclear powered ships do not require nuclear fuel. - Swan While it is true that fossils do not burn it is also true that fossil fuels burn very well - Swan
08-09-2019 20:36
keepit ★★★★★ (3060)	I haven't been back to Biloxi since Katrina but every thing i've read and heard and seen says it still hasn't totally recovered. It's kind of like the Amazon fires, the damage to the ongoing production is still a loss even though the process can be renewed. If you don't think such things are a loss, ask the Bahamians in a few years if Dorian was a loss.
08-09-2019 21:02
IBdaMann★★★★★ (14417)	keepit wrote: I haven't been back to Biloxi since Katrina but every thing i've read and heard and seen says it still hasn't totally recovered. It's kind of like the Amazon fires, the damage to the ongoing production is still a loss even though the process can be renewed. If you don't think such things are a loss, ask the Bahamians in a few years if Dorian was a loss. I have been back to Biloxi. Not only has it recovered but the construction has accelerated. In fact, Katrina motivated lawmakers to allow the "over water only" casinos to relocate to terra firma. When you do return, don't be surprised if you don't recognize the place. ... and make sure you get over to one place that isn't changing, The Shed, for some mighty fine Mississippi barbeque (The Shed -- 7501 HWY 57 Ocean Springs, MS. 39565, USA I don't think i can [define it]. I just kind of get a feel for the phrase. - keepit A Spaghetti strainer with the faucet running, retains water- tmiddles Clouds don't trap heat. Clouds block cold. - Spongy Iris Printing dollars to pay debt doesn't increase the number of dollars. - keepit If Venus were a black body it would have a much much lower temperature than what we found there.- tmiddles Ah the "Valid Data" myth of ITN/IBD. - tmiddles Ceist - I couldn't agree with you more. But when money and religion are involved, and there are people who value them above all else, then the lies begin. - trafn You are completely misunderstanding their use of the word "accumulation"! - Climate Scientist. The Stefan-Boltzman equation doesn't come up with the correct temperature if greenhouse gases are not considered - Hank :sigh* Not the "raw data" crap.* - Leafsdude IB STILL hasn't explained what Planck's Law means. Just more hand waving that it applies to everything and more asserting that the greenhouse effect 'violates' it.- Ceist
08-09-2019 21:11
keepit ★★★★★ (3060)	IBDM, Sounds good but 14 years of loss is a lot of loss. Just for the sake of argument, will that loss ever be recovered?
08-09-2019 21:23
Into the Night★★★★★ (21600)	keepit wrote: I haven't been back to Biloxi since Katrina but every thing i've read and heard and seen says it still hasn't totally recovered. Go see for yourself. It's a bit different looking, but it's recovered. Don't believe the news. keepit wrote: It's kind of like the Amazon fires, the damage to the ongoing production is still a loss even though the process can be renewed. Of course it's a loss. But we can rebuild quicker than the Amazon can grow back, and we often do. keepit wrote: If you don't think such things are a loss, ask the Bahamians in a few years if Dorian was a loss. No need. You can ask Houston. They suffered a hurricane too, but they are a fully functioning city again. Yes, they call the damage a loss. A loss does not mean abandoning the area to the loss. You can sit there and whine, like New Orleans and Puerto Rico did, or you can pick up the pieces, rebuild, and get on with your life, like Houston and Biloxi did, and like the Bahamas will likely do. The Parrot Killer Debunked in my sig. - tmiddles Google keeps track of paranoid talk and i'm not on their list. I've been evaluated and certified. - keepit nuclear powered ships do not require nuclear fuel. - Swan While it is true that fossils do not burn it is also true that fossil fuels burn very well - Swan Edited on 08-09-2019 21:26
08-09-2019 21:28
keepit ★★★★★ (3060)	Just for the sake of argument - rebuilding after recurring loss is kind of like Einstein saying "doing the same thing time and again and hoping for a different outcome is a definition of insanity". I know, i know, there are always exceptions.
08-09-2019 21:35
IBdaMann★★★★★ (14417)	keepit wrote: IBDM, Sounds good but 14 years of loss is a lot of loss. Just for the sake of argument, will that loss ever be recovered? I disagree with your assessment. How would Biloxi appear had there not been any Katrina? It would likely have been less developed than it is today. People rebuild, and when they do, they rebuild bigger, better and more modern than what was there previously. Like I said, some of the casinos that you remember are now moved to solid land ... and with that, they have taken the opportunity to leverage the freedom from restrictions to build bigger, better and more modern than what they had. In short, were you and I in Biloxi (or Gulfport) you would not be able to point to anything and say "that's a loss." To the contrary, it looks just as if there had been no Katrina. ... and McElroy's is still there serving up the big stacks of blueberry pancakes asking "what hurricane?" . I don't think i can [define it]. I just kind of get a feel for the phrase. - keepit A Spaghetti strainer with the faucet running, retains water- tmiddles Clouds don't trap heat. Clouds block cold. - Spongy Iris Printing dollars to pay debt doesn't increase the number of dollars. - keepit If Venus were a black body it would have a much much lower temperature than what we found there.- tmiddles Ah the "Valid Data" myth of ITN/IBD. - tmiddles Ceist - I couldn't agree with you more. But when money and religion are involved, and there are people who value them above all else, then the lies begin. - trafn You are completely misunderstanding their use of the word "accumulation"! - Climate Scientist. The Stefan-Boltzman equation doesn't come up with the correct temperature if greenhouse gases are not considered - Hank :sigh* Not the "raw data" crap.* - Leafsdude IB STILL hasn't explained what Planck's Law means. Just more hand waving that it applies to everything and more asserting that the greenhouse effect 'violates' it.- Ceist

08-09-2019 21:39
keepit ★★★★★ (3060)	There was lot of hardship in the meantime! It took a lot of extra work and CO2 production to rebuild, regardless of where they rebuilt. That's great about the bar-b-que - really! But i make it a point to not pay too much attention to anecdotal info. Edited on 08-09-2019 21:43
08-09-2019 22:46
Into the Night★★★★★ (21600)	keepit wrote: Just for the sake of argument - rebuilding after recurring loss is kind of like Einstein saying "doing the same thing time and again and hoping for a different outcome is a definition of insanity". I know, i know, there are always exceptions. Then no one should build! Everywhere you go there is something that is prevalent about the area that causes destruction. The West Coast gets a lot of earthquakes and volcanoes. The Northwest not only get earthquakes, we get volcanoes and mudslides. The deserts of the Western Interior get lots of fires. The Plains get lots of tornadoes, damaging hail, etc. (I'm currently fixing the last hail damage from when I was over there...it's tedious work). The Gulf and southeastern States get hurricanes. The Northeast gets devastating snow, so thick it can crush houses. The Upper Midwest gets harsh cold temperatures, causing many automotive accidents, exposure, frozen pipes, and death. Hawaii gets tidal waves and volcanoes. Alaska gets extreme earthquakes, and has limited transportation, as well as cold and exposure risks, possibly causing death. Mexico has roving gangs and bandits, that have no problem destroying your house to 'make a point', as well as fires, hurricanes, and earthquakes. Canada is just a colder version of what the U.S. is, but without good transportation over much of it. Where are you gonna go? The Parrot Killer Debunked in my sig. - tmiddles Google keeps track of paranoid talk and i'm not on their list. I've been evaluated and certified. - keepit nuclear powered ships do not require nuclear fuel. - Swan While it is true that fossils do not burn it is also true that fossil fuels burn very well - Swan
08-09-2019 22:49
Into the Night★★★★★ (21600)	keepit wrote: There was lot of hardship in the meantime! Are you trying to eliminate hardship??? Guess what? You can't. keepit wrote: It took a lot of extra work and CO2 production to rebuild, regardless of where they rebuilt. But they rebuilt. keepit wrote: That's great about the bar-b-que - really! But i make it a point to not pay too much attention to anecdotal info. No, I've eaten at the Shed. It's GREAT barb-b-que! The Parrot Killer Debunked in my sig. - tmiddles Google keeps track of paranoid talk and i'm not on their list. I've been evaluated and certified. - keepit nuclear powered ships do not require nuclear fuel. - Swan While it is true that fossils do not burn it is also true that fossil fuels burn very well - Swan Edited on 08-09-2019 22:50
08-09-2019 22:56
keepit ★★★★★ (3060)	Anticipate stronger hurricanes, rebuild in smarter places. Don't give up. Greenland might be a good place to go - after it melts. Edited on 08-09-2019 22:58
08-09-2019 23:13
IBdaMann★★★★★ (14417)	keepit wrote: Anticipate stronger hurricanes, rebuild in smarter places. Don't give up. Greenland might be a good place to go - after it melts. Please share ... what magick power do you believe CO2 has over the weather? Anticipate the next century to be virtually identical to this past century but with the weather occurring in an excellent random order and locationally well within standard statistical deviation. There is no Global Warming. There is no global Climate and hence, no Climate Change. By the way, on a personal note, you can't officially be a Christian and still have other gods, e.g. Climate, Global Warming, Greenhouse Effect, Feedback Fairies, etc... It's a violation of your commandments. I just wanted to bring that to your attention. . . I don't think i can [define it]. I just kind of get a feel for the phrase. - keepit A Spaghetti strainer with the faucet running, retains water- tmiddles Clouds don't trap heat. Clouds block cold. - Spongy Iris Printing dollars to pay debt doesn't increase the number of dollars. - keepit If Venus were a black body it would have a much much lower temperature than what we found there.- tmiddles Ah the "Valid Data" myth of ITN/IBD. - tmiddles Ceist - I couldn't agree with you more. But when money and religion are involved, and there are people who value them above all else, then the lies begin. - trafn You are completely misunderstanding their use of the word "accumulation"! - Climate Scientist. The Stefan-Boltzman equation doesn't come up with the correct temperature if greenhouse gases are not considered - Hank :sigh* Not the "raw data" crap.* - Leafsdude IB STILL hasn't explained what Planck's Law means. Just more hand waving that it applies to everything and more asserting that the greenhouse effect 'violates' it.- Ceist
08-09-2019 23:21
keepit ★★★★★ (3060)	IBDM, I'm officially a Christian.
09-09-2019 00:13
IBdaMann★★★★★ (14417)	keepit wrote: IBDM, I'm officially a Christian. You have certainly declared yourself a Christian. Do you obey the commands: "to abstain from the things polluted by idols"? "Thou shalt have no other gods before me."? Do you flee from idolatry? Should children keep themselves from idols? You have to admit, you have been doing a lot of preaching of the great flood and extreme weather that Global Warming will be unleashing ... as if the Christian God is powerless to stop it, even though the Christian God has promised to not let that happen again. You have implied that the Climate goddess is more powerful than the Christian God when it comes to the weather. I'm sure you can understand Christians perhaps not really considering you to be a fellow Christian despite what you declare. Personally, I don't care. I'm not a Christian. In fact, I can use you as an example of a Christian who does, in fact, have other gods before the Christian God. If anyone tries to tell me that someone cannot be a Christian under those circumstances, I'll just point to you. If they try to argue a "no true Scotsman" fallacy, I'll be prepared. . I don't think i can [define it]. I just kind of get a feel for the phrase. - keepit A Spaghetti strainer with the faucet running, retains water- tmiddles Clouds don't trap heat. Clouds block cold. - Spongy Iris Printing dollars to pay debt doesn't increase the number of dollars. - keepit If Venus were a black body it would have a much much lower temperature than what we found there.- tmiddles Ah the "Valid Data" myth of ITN/IBD. - tmiddles Ceist - I couldn't agree with you more. But when money and religion are involved, and there are people who value them above all else, then the lies begin. - trafn You are completely misunderstanding their use of the word "accumulation"! - Climate Scientist. The Stefan-Boltzman equation doesn't come up with the correct temperature if greenhouse gases are not considered - Hank :sigh* Not the "raw data" crap.* - Leafsdude IB STILL hasn't explained what Planck's Law means. Just more hand waving that it applies to everything and more asserting that the greenhouse effect 'violates' it.- Ceist
09-09-2019 00:19
keepit ★★★★★ (3060)	Just more false accusations IBDM.
09-09-2019 00:21
IBdaMann★★★★★ (14417)	keepit wrote: Just more false accusations IBDM. From whom? You? The Bible? What are you talking about? . I don't think i can [define it]. I just kind of get a feel for the phrase. - keepit A Spaghetti strainer with the faucet running, retains water- tmiddles Clouds don't trap heat. Clouds block cold. - Spongy Iris Printing dollars to pay debt doesn't increase the number of dollars. - keepit If Venus were a black body it would have a much much lower temperature than what we found there.- tmiddles Ah the "Valid Data" myth of ITN/IBD. - tmiddles Ceist - I couldn't agree with you more. But when money and religion are involved, and there are people who value them above all else, then the lies begin. - trafn You are completely misunderstanding their use of the word "accumulation"! - Climate Scientist. The Stefan-Boltzman equation doesn't come up with the correct temperature if greenhouse gases are not considered - Hank :sigh* Not the "raw data" crap.* - Leafsdude IB STILL hasn't explained what Planck's Law means. Just more hand waving that it applies to everything and more asserting that the greenhouse effect 'violates' it.- Ceist
09-09-2019 00:23
keepit ★★★★★ (3060)	From you.

Page 1 of 2

Join the debate Hurricane Dorian, sign of Global Warming?:

Threads	Replies	Last post
Climate Change Hurricane Idalia	18	03-09-2023 13:58
30,000 SCIENTISTS SIGN PETITION ON GLOBAL WARMING, CLAIMING THAT THERE IS NO SETTLED SCIENCE	2	02-11-2022 23:15
Apocalyptic Hurricane to Make Landfall	27	30-08-2020 22:11
Hurricane season coming. Lockdown end?	5	23-04-2020 19:37
Climate Change, Sign from the Book of Revelations!	0	25-01-2020 19:27