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What exactly is the evidence that AGW is happening or


What exactly is the evidence that AGW is happening or06-01-2019 22:37
Zloppino
☆☆☆☆☆
(17)
is a threat to the Earth or humanity. I mean other than everybody says so, which conveys zero evidence
06-01-2019 23:03
HarveyH55
★★★★☆
(1006)
There is no actual evidence to support anything unnatural is going, since we haven't experienced anything like this before, in any recorded history. It's our first recovery from a full ice age, and nobody really knows what is normal, or what to expect. We'll find out when it happens...

The science is computer simulations of possible scenarios, 'what if'... Then they look for ways the scary ones might work for real. They can sound convincing, but it's just a computer game out of control...
07-01-2019 05:21
still learning
★★☆☆☆
(244)
What exactly is the evidence that AGW is happening or
Zloppino wrote:
is a threat to the Earth or humanity. I mean other than everybody says so, which conveys zero evidence


The evidence that there is global warming now?
Two main lines of evidence, increasing temperatures and rising sealevel. Some other evidence such as retreating mountain glaciers.

For temperature, see http://berkeleyearth.org/summary-of-findings/
The surface temperature anomaly is almost a degree (C) so far. So far, not a big deal. Sea level rise also no big deal so far, some slight flooding some places at highest tides.

Evidence from lots of ordinary temperature and sealevel measurements collected over decades by multiple agencies.

The evidence is there that there has been a little warming, though some deny it.

Know that is is caused by humans though? That's harder to understand. Really helps to remember some physics. A little chemistry maybe too. Kind of have to try to understand what affects temperatures and then figure out what has changed. The most obvious candidates, a change in the Sun's energy output or a change in the Earth-Sun distance have been looked at and ruled out. Beyond that you get into what is usually called the "greenhouse effect." Not an especially accurate name but it is used. Find some online explanations for the greenhouse effect. The Wikipedia entry might be a good place to start. There are explanations online that are oversimplified to the point of being wrong though. If you want to go deeper, try the textbook Principles of Planetary Climate by R Pierrehumbert.

A threat to the Earth or humanity if global warming continues, even accelerates? People do exaggerate.
In a million years the Earth itself won't seem any more different because of AGW.
Humanity: Not a threat to the existence of our species that I can tell, but maybe harm to individuals. Depends on how far things go and how fast. A meter of sealevel rise can be handled. Enough sealevel rise and seaports will have to move. Move New York and London and Shanghai and Tokyo to where? Temperatures affect agriculture, when to plant and what crop varieties to plant for best yields. Small changes can be handled. Large changes, not so easy, especially in some third-world countries. Possible famine, eventually, some places. I won't see that, but grandchildren might.
07-01-2019 11:06
HarveyH55
★★★★☆
(1006)
The IPCC seems to quickly rule out many things, and just focuses always on man-made CO2. I've a strong suspicion that when you put all these discarded forces together, we'd find that there is more to the story. Total amount of CO2 is only about 0.04% of the atmosphere, about 400 ppm. It's just not a vastly significant amount of anything, to produce such a horrific effect, to discount everything else.

Sea levels have always changed, high tide and low tide is different pretty much daily. Beach erosion, another natural process, has some effect on measurements as well. Tough to get any real measurement of a huge body of moving water.

The 'warming' has been going on for a long time, 10,000-20,000 years. It's doubtful we will see a whole lot of new weather cycles, just more of what we already had in the past. Keep in mind that all these doomsday predictions, are really just scenarios, run through a computer simulation (climate models), based on a very short, limited, data base. Based on the how the parameters are tweaked, the results for each scenario, can range from mild-wild. We've had many years of drought/famine, and many years of flooding, many years with harsh winters as well.
07-01-2019 19:47
Into the Night
★★★★★
(8694)
still learning wrote:
What exactly is the evidence that AGW is happening or
Zloppino wrote:
is a threat to the Earth or humanity. I mean other than everybody says so, which conveys zero evidence


The evidence that there is global warming now?
Two main lines of evidence, increasing temperatures and rising sealevel.

There isn't any evidence of increasing temperature. It is not possible to measure the temperature of the Earth, even with all of our thermometers.
still learning wrote:
Some other evidence such as retreating mountain glaciers.

What about the advancing mountain glaciers?
still learning wrote:

For temperature, see ...deleted Holy Link...
The surface temperature anomaly is almost a degree (C) so far. So far, not a big deal.

It is not possible to measure the temperature of the Earth.
still learning wrote:
Sea level rise also no big deal so far, some slight flooding some places at highest tides.

It is not possible to measure the global sea level. There is no valid reference point.
still learning wrote:

Evidence from lots of ordinary temperature and sealevel measurements collected over decades by multiple agencies.

How many thermometers are used by these agencies to measure global temperature? Yes...you need to know this number to calculate the margin of error.
still learning wrote:

The evidence is there that there has been a little warming, though some deny it.

I completely deny it. It is not possible to measure it.
still learning wrote:

Know that is is caused by humans though? That's harder to understand. Really helps to remember some physics. A little chemistry maybe too. Kind of have to try to understand what affects temperatures and then figure out what has changed. The most obvious candidates, a change in the Sun's energy output or a change in the Earth-Sun distance have been looked at and ruled out.

The only significant source of energy the Earth has is the Sun. Ruling out the Sun's effect on the Earth's temperature is ridiculous.
still learning wrote:

Beyond that you get into what is usually called the "greenhouse effect." Not an especially accurate name but it is used. Find some online explanations for the greenhouse effect. The Wikipedia entry might be a good place to start. There are explanations online that are oversimplified to the point of being wrong though. If you want to go deeper, try the textbook Principles of Planetary Climate by R Pierrehumbert.

This textbook is wrong. It ignores the 1st and 2nd law of thermodynamics and the Stefan-Boltzmann law. Magick Holy Gas like CO2 have NO effect on the temperature of the Earth. They are not an energy source. No gas or vapor has the capability to change Earth's temperature.
still learning wrote:

A threat to the Earth or humanity if global warming continues, even accelerates? People do exaggerate.

Indeed they do. People also try to control others.
still learning wrote:

In a million years the Earth itself won't seem any more different because of AGW.
Humanity: Not a threat to the existence of our species that I can tell, but maybe harm to individuals.

None. Meaningless buzzwords are not a threat to anyone. The phrase 'global warming' has no meaning other than itself.
still learning wrote:
Depends on how far things go and how fast. A meter of sealevel rise can be handled. Enough sealevel rise and seaports will have to move. Move New York and London and Shanghai and Tokyo to where?

No need to move them anywhere.
still learning wrote:
Temperatures affect agriculture,
Nope. Plants are not sensitive to temperature. They are sensitive to light available and water and soil resources available.
still learning wrote:
when to plant and what crop varieties to plant for best yields.

You can plant anything anywhere, so long as the light is provided, the plant is protected from freezing (for some varieties), and water and soil nutrients are available. People grow oranges in Alaska, for example.
still learning wrote:
Small changes can be handled. Large changes, not so easy, especially in some third-world countries.

What changes? We can't measure them!
still learning wrote:
Possible famine, eventually, some places. I won't see that, but grandchildren might.

What about the famines now? They are caused by things like wars and poor farming practices. Improved farming practices around the world is improving, not getting worse.


The Parrot Killer
09-01-2019 04:17
Zloppino
☆☆☆☆☆
(17)
still learning wrote:
What exactly is the evidence that AGW is happening or
Zloppino wrote:
is a threat to the Earth or humanity. I mean other than everybody says so, which conveys zero evidence


The evidence that there is global warming now?
Two main lines of evidence, increasing temperatures and rising sealevel. Some other evidence such as retreating mountain glaciers.

For temperature, see http://berkeleyearth.org/summary-of-findings/
The surface temperature anomaly is almost a degree (C) so far. So far, not a big deal. Sea level rise also no big deal so far, some slight flooding some places at highest tides.

Evidence from lots of ordinary temperature and sealevel measurements collected over decades by multiple agencies.

The evidence is there that there has been a little warming, though some deny it.

Know that is is caused by humans though? That's harder to understand. Really helps to remember some physics. A little chemistry maybe too. Kind of have to try to understand what affects temperatures and then figure out what has changed. The most obvious candidates, a change in the Sun's energy output or a change in the Earth-Sun distance have been looked at and ruled out. Beyond that you get into what is usually called the "greenhouse effect." Not an especially accurate name but it is used. Find some online explanations for the greenhouse effect. The Wikipedia entry might be a good place to start. There are explanations online that are oversimplified to the point of being wrong though. If you want to go deeper, try the textbook Principles of Planetary Climate by R Pierrehumbert.

A threat to the Earth or humanity if global warming continues, even accelerates? People do exaggerate.
In a million years the Earth itself won't seem any more different because of AGW.
Humanity: Not a threat to the existence of our species that I can tell, but maybe harm to individuals. Depends on how far things go and how fast. A meter of sealevel rise can be handled. Enough sealevel rise and seaports will have to move. Move New York and London and Shanghai and Tokyo to where? Temperatures affect agriculture, when to plant and what crop varieties to plant for best yields. Small changes can be handled. Large changes, not so easy, especially in some third-world countries. Possible famine, eventually, some places. I won't see that, but grandchildren might.


The current global warming began 20000 years ago at the height of the ice age. No human caused this, now grow up
09-01-2019 10:33
HarveyH55
★★★★☆
(1006)
Obviously, it was really cold during the Ice Age, so naturally, we would see warming after it ended. The sticky point is how would anyone know what the "normal" temperature was before the Ice Age, and when we reach it. We still have a lot of remnants of the Ice Age, frozen mammoths are still being discovered, still a lot of glaciers. Most of the plant life seems to prefer a warmer climate, and higher CO2 levels. Even the IPCC claim that the warming is releasing more natural CO2. Before declaring a surface temperature anomaly, they would need to establish what was normal, pre-Ice Age. As good as the Climatologist like to believe there are, they can't make a guess-estimate, accurate to 1 C degrees.

I really haven't seen any evidence presented, that proved that the warming ever ended from the Ice Age, or what was consider normal temperature rise from it.

How CO2 got involved as the primary driving factor, is still a mystery to me. I just don't have the patience to read through hundreds of scientific papers, many seem a little thin on significance, barely related. The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere seems really tiny, to have such a huge impact, all by itself. But it isn't just any CO2, just the man-made part of the 0.04%. The warming trend started well before the burning. I could buy that CO2 could contribute a tiny part, but not the lead actor. A few degrees increase over a couple of centuries just doesn't seem unusual, alarming, or even bad for the environment. As for the catastrophic weather events... Well, I live in Florida, a place know for some very violent weather, which has been mild for more than a decade. Hurricanes are still bad, but we use to have violent thunderstorms, almost daily, tornadoes often during our rainy season(summer). We rarely get a thunderstorm at all, tornadoes even less frequent. You'd think that as we move closer to doomsday, the weather would be getting worse, year after year, not milder.
13-04-2019 19:20
paramount99
☆☆☆☆☆
(39)
still learning wrote:
What exactly is the evidence that AGW is happening or
Zloppino wrote:
is a threat to the Earth or humanity. I mean other than everybody says so, which conveys zero evidence


The evidence that there is global warming now?
Two main lines of evidence, increasing temperatures and rising sealevel. Some other evidence such as retreating mountain glaciers.

For temperature, see http://berkeleyearth.org/summary-of-findings/
The surface temperature anomaly is almost a degree (C) so far. So far, not a big deal. Sea level rise also no big deal so far, some slight flooding some places at highest tides.

Evidence from lots of ordinary temperature and sealevel measurements collected over decades by multiple agencies.

The evidence is there that there has been a little warming, though some deny it.

Know that is is caused by humans though? That's harder to understand. Really helps to remember some physics. A little chemistry maybe too. Kind of have to try to understand what affects temperatures and then figure out what has changed. The most obvious candidates, a change in the Sun's energy output or a change in the Earth-Sun distance have been looked at and ruled out. Beyond that you get into what is usually called the "greenhouse effect." Not an especially accurate name but it is used. Find some online explanations for the greenhouse effect. The Wikipedia entry might be a good place to start. There are explanations online that are oversimplified to the point of being wrong though. If you want to go deeper, try the textbook Principles of Planetary Climate by R Pierrehumbert.

A threat to the Earth or humanity if global warming continues, even accelerates? People do exaggerate.
In a million years the Earth itself won't seem any more different because of AGW.
Humanity: Not a threat to the existence of our species that I can tell, but maybe harm to individuals. Depends on how far things go and how fast. A meter of sealevel rise can be handled. Enough sealevel rise and seaports will have to move. Move New York and London and Shanghai and Tokyo to where? Temperatures affect agriculture, when to plant and what crop varieties to plant for best yields. Small changes can be handled. Large changes, not so easy, especially in some third-world countries. Possible famine, eventually, some places. I won't see that, but grandchildren might.


In 874AD the Vikings set off to colonise Iceland - some years later, with continued very hot weather they moved to Greenland also, as the weather heated up yet again. They grew crops in these places that today you can not grow - because it is too cold to do so. This Viking fun went on for nearly 400 years... In 1203AD, things changed, suddenly. Bad weather (VERY BAD) and low-lying countries almost vanished before the waves. This naughty weather continued until mid-to-late 19th century.
It has been steadily warming ever since. Get the big picture yet?!?
What did the amazing Mr Trump once say: "It's only weather!"
He's right you know...
13-04-2019 20:36
Into the Night
★★★★★
(8694)
paramount99 wrote:
still learning wrote:
What exactly is the evidence that AGW is happening or
Zloppino wrote:
is a threat to the Earth or humanity. I mean other than everybody says so, which conveys zero evidence


The evidence that there is global warming now?
Two main lines of evidence, increasing temperatures and rising sealevel. Some other evidence such as retreating mountain glaciers.

For temperature, see http://berkeleyearth.org/summary-of-findings/
The surface temperature anomaly is almost a degree (C) so far. So far, not a big deal. Sea level rise also no big deal so far, some slight flooding some places at highest tides.

Evidence from lots of ordinary temperature and sealevel measurements collected over decades by multiple agencies.

The evidence is there that there has been a little warming, though some deny it.

Know that is is caused by humans though? That's harder to understand. Really helps to remember some physics. A little chemistry maybe too. Kind of have to try to understand what affects temperatures and then figure out what has changed. The most obvious candidates, a change in the Sun's energy output or a change in the Earth-Sun distance have been looked at and ruled out. Beyond that you get into what is usually called the "greenhouse effect." Not an especially accurate name but it is used. Find some online explanations for the greenhouse effect. The Wikipedia entry might be a good place to start. There are explanations online that are oversimplified to the point of being wrong though. If you want to go deeper, try the textbook Principles of Planetary Climate by R Pierrehumbert.

A threat to the Earth or humanity if global warming continues, even accelerates? People do exaggerate.
In a million years the Earth itself won't seem any more different because of AGW.
Humanity: Not a threat to the existence of our species that I can tell, but maybe harm to individuals. Depends on how far things go and how fast. A meter of sealevel rise can be handled. Enough sealevel rise and seaports will have to move. Move New York and London and Shanghai and Tokyo to where? Temperatures affect agriculture, when to plant and what crop varieties to plant for best yields. Small changes can be handled. Large changes, not so easy, especially in some third-world countries. Possible famine, eventually, some places. I won't see that, but grandchildren might.


In 874AD the Vikings set off to colonise Iceland - some years later, with continued very hot weather they moved to Greenland also, as the weather heated up yet again. They grew crops in these places that today you can not grow - because it is too cold to do so. This Viking fun went on for nearly 400 years... In 1203AD, things changed, suddenly. Bad weather (VERY BAD) and low-lying countries almost vanished before the waves. This naughty weather continued until mid-to-late 19th century.
It has been steadily warming ever since. Get the big picture yet?!?
What did the amazing Mr Trump once say: "It's only weather!"
He's right you know...


Those Vikings are still there. They still grow vegetables and such. Most of their economy is on fishing and trade. It always was.


The Parrot Killer
13-04-2019 23:40
IBdaMann
★★★★★
(4312)
What exactly is the evidence that AGW is happening or not


Zloppino wrote:
is a threat to the Earth or humanity. I mean other than everybody says so, which conveys zero evidence


Why was the question framed around the evidence supporting Global Warming as opposed to the science supporting Global Warming? Is it already understood that there is no science supporting Global Warming?


Global Warming: The preferred religion of the scientifically illiterate.

Ceist - I couldn't agree with you more. But when money and religion are involved, and there are people who value them above all else, then the lies begin. - trafn

You are completely misunderstanding their use of the word "accumulation"! - Climate Scientist.

The Stefan-Boltzman equation doesn't come up with the correct temperature if greenhouse gases are not considered - Hank

:*sigh* Not the "raw data" crap. - Leafsdude

IB STILL hasn't explained what Planck's Law means. Just more hand waving that it applies to everything and more asserting that the greenhouse effect 'violates' it.- Ceist
14-04-2019 13:33
paramount99
☆☆☆☆☆
(39)
Into the Night wrote:
paramount99 wrote:
still learning wrote:
What exactly is the evidence that AGW is happening or
Zloppino wrote:
is a threat to the Earth or humanity. I mean other than everybody says so, which conveys zero evidence


The evidence that there is global warming now?
Two main lines of evidence, increasing temperatures and rising sealevel. Some other evidence such as retreating mountain glaciers.

For temperature, see http://berkeleyearth.org/summary-of-findings/
The surface temperature anomaly is almost a degree (C) so far. So far, not a big deal. Sea level rise also no big deal so far, some slight flooding some places at highest tides.

Evidence from lots of ordinary temperature and sealevel measurements collected over decades by multiple agencies.

The evidence is there that there has been a little warming, though some deny it.

Know that is is caused by humans though? That's harder to understand. Really helps to remember some physics. A little chemistry maybe too. Kind of have to try to understand what affects temperatures and then figure out what has changed. The most obvious candidates, a change in the Sun's energy output or a change in the Earth-Sun distance have been looked at and ruled out. Beyond that you get into what is usually called the "greenhouse effect." Not an especially accurate name but it is used. Find some online explanations for the greenhouse effect. The Wikipedia entry might be a good place to start. There are explanations online that are oversimplified to the point of being wrong though. If you want to go deeper, try the textbook Principles of Planetary Climate by R Pierrehumbert.

A threat to the Earth or humanity if global warming continues, even accelerates? People do exaggerate.
In a million years the Earth itself won't seem any more different because of AGW.
Humanity: Not a threat to the existence of our species that I can tell, but maybe harm to individuals. Depends on how far things go and how fast. A meter of sealevel rise can be handled. Enough sealevel rise and seaports will have to move. Move New York and London and Shanghai and Tokyo to where? Temperatures affect agriculture, when to plant and what crop varieties to plant for best yields. Small changes can be handled. Large changes, not so easy, especially in some third-world countries. Possible famine, eventually, some places. I won't see that, but grandchildren might.


In 874AD the Vikings set off to colonise Iceland - some years later, with continued very hot weather they moved to Greenland also, as the weather heated up yet again. They grew crops in these places that today you can not grow - because it is too cold to do so. This Viking fun went on for nearly 400 years... In 1203AD, things changed, suddenly. Bad weather (VERY BAD) and low-lying countries almost vanished before the waves. This naughty weather continued until mid-to-late 19th century.
It has been steadily warming ever since. Get the big picture yet?!?
What did the amazing Mr Trump once say: "It's only weather!"
He's right you know...


Those Vikings are still there. They still grow vegetables and such. Most of their economy is on fishing and trade. It always was.


I guess my point was that the weather is an ever changing beast of 'natural' cause/effect. We (humans) haven't changed it that much, if at all. Ice cores and tree-rings amongst others give us all the evidence we need to fully debunk such wild, fear mongering, chaos fearing loony global warming types.




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