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Great Question (Re: El Nino)


Great Question (Re: El Nino)28-11-2015 18:18
IBdaMannProfile picture★★★★★
(4640)
Madison wrote:
So how do we measure if this El Nino gets stronger than the 1998 El Nino? Which graph to use?

The graph in the first post is updated, BTW. Last week higher again.


You raise a great question that deserves its own discussion.

What, exactly, is an "el nin~o" and what is a "la nin~a" and how do we measure them?

If I were to compare two "el nin~o" s (shouldn't that be two "los nin~os"?) would I be looking to see if one is "stonger" than the other? What do I look for? Should I check to see if one is warmer than the other, or maybe taller than the other, or faster, or what? What is important about an "el nin~o" or a "la nin~a"?

...and of course, how do we measure it and why do we care?


.


Global Warming: The preferred religion of the scientifically illiterate.

Printing dollars to pay debt doesn't increase the number of dollars. - keepit

Ah the "Valid Data" myth of ITN/IBD. - tmiddles

Ceist - I couldn't agree with you more. But when money and religion are involved, and there are people who value them above all else, then the lies begin. - trafn

You are completely misunderstanding their use of the word "accumulation"! - Climate Scientist.

The Stefan-Boltzman equation doesn't come up with the correct temperature if greenhouse gases are not considered - Hank

:*sigh* Not the "raw data" crap. - Leafsdude

IB STILL hasn't explained what Planck's Law means. Just more hand waving that it applies to everything and more asserting that the greenhouse effect 'violates' it.- Ceist
28-11-2015 21:14
Into the Night
★★★★★
(9286)
IBdaMann wrote:
Madison wrote:
So how do we measure if this El Nino gets stronger than the 1998 El Nino? Which graph to use?

The graph in the first post is updated, BTW. Last week higher again.


You raise a great question that deserves its own discussion.

What, exactly, is an "el nin~o" and what is a "la nin~a" and how do we measure them?

If I were to compare two "el nin~o" s (shouldn't that be two "los nin~os"?) would I be looking to see if one is "stonger" than the other? What do I look for? Should I check to see if one is warmer than the other, or maybe taller than the other, or faster, or what? What is important about an "el nin~o" or a "la nin~a"?

...and of course, how do we measure it and why do we care?


.

Although we use the Spanish term for El Nino, we typically don't use the Spanish pronoun!
Ah...English. Instead we typically use the term El Ninos when talking about multiple events.

An El Nino (or La Nina) is nothing more than warmer surface ocean water moving east or west, respectively. Nothing is warming in the ocean during the event. It is just warm water moving from one place to another. NOAA has temperature buoys anchored in the path of this movement of water, so it can watch where it is. It is these temperature buoys that produce the data mentioned in the other thread. The collection of this data can be observed in graphical or tabular form since the placement of these buoys at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center's website. Despite the small dataset and NOAA holding it, they so far haven't felt the need to manipulate it like they do with their combined temperature graph.

Since El Nino is active this year, we'll talk about that.

Warm water vs cold water determines weather pattern changes. Since these events are strongest during the northern winter, the weather pattern that changes is our winter pattern. One common aspect that is noted is the splitting of the jet stream into two streams as they cross the Americas. The first takes a more northerly route through lower Canada than usual, the second crosses the United States just north of Los Angeles. The jet stream later rejoins as it gets further away from the Pacific ocean.

One effect of this change in the jet stream is to move hurricane activity from the Atlantic to the Pacific. The Atlantic get their tops cut off before they fully form, and the Pacific storms ride the modified jet stream right across all that warm water near the west coast. Los Angeles typically gets the rain that usually goes into Seattle, but because the L.A. area is desert with just a few clumps of grass to hold it together, flooding and mudflows there become a problem.

If the El Nino is a strong one, the rain can be pushed up into northern California as well, falling as heavy snow in the mountains. The infamous Donner Pass incident was caused by a late wagon train entering the Sierra Nevada mountains during an El Nino year and getting stuck.

El Nino years are good for California's water supply, dropping moisture all up and down the Sierra Nevadas and the Rockies beyond (feeding the Colorado river).

Storms are more common in general across the southern United States. Deprived of it's usual warm water storms (hurricanes) entering Florida, that state can actually suffer an occasional frost. The oranges and peaches grown in Georgia and Florida can suffer as a result.

This particular El Nino is a strong one, but not as strong as previously recorded in 1998, according to the NOAA dataset. We care about them because farmers and city planners care about them. It can affect crop yield and preparations in cities for snow removal budgets or flood mitigation budgets. It affects the water supply available in California, especially since it is so mismanaged there. It affects ski seasons, where they will be good and where they will have a short year. Although they are part of the natural variability of the United States weather, we can plan for their effects, and do.

El Ninos (especially strong ones) can affect the Internet too. Because of the weird storm track one of these can cause, a lot of network traffic becomes filled with talk about the end of the world and 'proof' of global warming. The media tends to concentrate on these things also, adding to the load. It might be an interesting study to measure the total data load imposed on the Internet spine during one of these years.


The Parrot Killer
29-11-2015 01:38
IBdaMannProfile picture★★★★★
(4640)
@ Into the Night - great post! I didn't know any of that. Thanks.

Into the Night wrote:An El Nino (or La Nina) is nothing more than warmer surface ocean water moving east or west, respectively.

What effect does a strong La Niña have as opposed to a strong El Niño?

Into the Night wrote: Nothing is warming in the ocean during the event. It is just warm water moving from one place to another.

So it is a current, yes? Would it be accurate to describe both El Niño and La Niña as anticipated eastward/westward warm currents that are verified by temperature buoys?

If so, would we measure the "strength" of the El Niño/La Niña by the temperature of the water, by the speed of the current, or by a combination of the two?

Into the Night wrote: Despite the small dataset and NOAA holding it, they so far haven't felt the need to manipulate it like they do with their combined temperature graph.


Let's speculate for a moment about this. Let's presume NOAA is intent on "proving" the dogma of "climate change" and will not hesitate to modify/manipulate/tweak/adjust/change/alter/cook/fudge/stretch/twist/fold/spindle/mutilate any data for that purpose.

Let's further presume that NOAA's preferred method to go about this is to screw with data from prior years to make the present appear to "prove" that everything claimed about "climate change" is happening before our eyes.

Further presuming that nothing out of the ordinary happens this year, what would you suspect would be NOAA's target data for change and in what way? For what data would NOAA be most hopeful? What data would be the "low-hanging fruit" that we might want to monitor for "corrections" of convenience in the future?

Into the Night wrote: El Ninos (especially strong ones) can affect the Internet too. Because of the weird storm track one of these can cause, a lot of network traffic becomes filled with talk about the end of the world and 'proof' of global warming. The media tends to concentrate on these things also, adding to the load. It might be an interesting study to measure the total data load imposed on the Internet spine during one of these years.


Absolutely. On the one hand they need to shout from the highest mountain and flood the internet with the "News" of proof that Global Warming is real and active in our lives and then to flood the internet with the proof of the reason it is happening, i.e. El Niño / La Niña.


.


Global Warming: The preferred religion of the scientifically illiterate.

Printing dollars to pay debt doesn't increase the number of dollars. - keepit

Ah the "Valid Data" myth of ITN/IBD. - tmiddles

Ceist - I couldn't agree with you more. But when money and religion are involved, and there are people who value them above all else, then the lies begin. - trafn

You are completely misunderstanding their use of the word "accumulation"! - Climate Scientist.

The Stefan-Boltzman equation doesn't come up with the correct temperature if greenhouse gases are not considered - Hank

:*sigh* Not the "raw data" crap. - Leafsdude

IB STILL hasn't explained what Planck's Law means. Just more hand waving that it applies to everything and more asserting that the greenhouse effect 'violates' it.- Ceist
29-11-2015 03:21
Into the Night
★★★★★
(9286)
IBdaMann wrote:
@ Into the Night - great post! I didn't know any of that. Thanks.
Certainly. glad I could enlighten someone.
IBdaMann wrote:
Into the Night wrote:An El Nino (or La Nina) is nothing more than warmer surface ocean water moving east or west, respectively.

What effect does a strong La Niña have as opposed to a strong El Niño?
At bottom of post. This is a long text!

IBdaMann wrote:
Into the Night wrote: Nothing is warming in the ocean during the event. It is just warm water moving from one place to another.

So it is a current, yes? Would it be accurate to describe both El Niño and La Niña as anticipated eastward/westward warm currents that are verified by temperature buoys?

Almost. It's a shift in current that takes place around the equator.
IBdaMann wrote:
If so, would we measure the "strength" of the El Niño/La Niña by the temperature of the water, by the speed of the current, or by a combination of the two?

Since the effects caused by El Nino or La Nina are ocean water temperature related, it's cheapest and most convenient to simply measure the changing temperature of the water. That gives us good enough info.
IBdaMann wrote:
Into the Night wrote: Despite the small dataset and NOAA holding it, they so far haven't felt the need to manipulate it like they do with their combined temperature graph.


Let's speculate for a moment about this. Let's presume NOAA is intent on "proving" the dogma of "climate change" and will not hesitate to modify/manipulate/tweak/adjust/change/alter/cook/fudge/stretch/twist/fold/spindle/mutilate any data for that purpose.
They've certainly given us reason to suspect them!

IBdaMann wrote:
Let's further presume that NOAA's preferred method to go about this is to screw with data from prior years to make the present appear to "prove" that everything claimed about "climate change" is happening before our eyes.

Further presuming that nothing out of the ordinary happens this year, what would you suspect would be NOAA's target data for change and in what way? For what data would NOAA be most hopeful? What data would be the "low-hanging fruit" that we might want to monitor for "corrections" of convenience in the future?

I would imaging they would want to fudge the data to look like stronger and stronger El Nino or La Nina events. It's kinda hard to do though, since the effects of those events would not be noticed that year. Since this year isn't as strong as the 1998 event or other events in the past, I tend to believe they haven't munged the data quite yet. Maybe they're trying to figure out how and get away with it.

IBdaMann wrote:
Into the Night wrote: El Ninos (especially strong ones) can affect the Internet too. Because of the weird storm track one of these can cause, a lot of network traffic becomes filled with talk about the end of the world and 'proof' of global warming. The media tends to concentrate on these things also, adding to the load. It might be an interesting study to measure the total data load imposed on the Internet spine during one of these years.


Absolutely. On the one hand they need to shout from the highest mountain and flood the internet with the "News" of proof that Global Warming is real and active in our lives and then to flood the internet with the proof of the reason it is happening, i.e. El Niño / La Niña.

Since telegraph load is measured directly by the IP spine, I wonder if they've kept historical records of that load. It would be interesting to compare it to actual storm activity that takes place.


The effects of La Nina tend to do kind of the opposite with the jet stream that an El Nino does. Instead of splitting, it becomes a bit stronger, and drops south somewhat. This is probably due to the colder pacific waters causing a deviation of the trade winds around Hawaii. Those islands typically see a more westerly wind than the usual southwesterly winds. This can cause surf there to intensify in unusual places around the islands, and weaken in others where it normally is strong.

For the west coast, the jet stream dropping south tends to produce colder winters in the Northwest, and sometimes quite difficult passage through the Syskiyou mountains (the dividing line between Oregon and California). Lake Shasta can get heavy precipitation, helping northern California's water supplies, but not doing much for southern California. The ski season north of the Syskiyous are usually pretty good, as precip hitting the Northwest tends to come from ocean waters north of Hawaii rather than the usual flow (known here as the Pineapple Express).

The upper midwest can catch some bitterly cold weather during such a cycle, while the southern states tend to get a normal year. Due to the proximity of colder air closer to Oklahoma and Texas, tornado activity can get quite nasty as the humid gulf air collides with the colder air that much closer to Texas.

For the east coast, the winter in New England down through New York can pick up quite a lot of Lake Effect snow. They've got some shoveling to do! My brother's car, parked in New England during a strong La Nina year was buried so deep he couldn't find it. There was no hump. When he finally did find it, a couple of snowmobile tracks had gone over the top.

The southeast will often get a warm winter, helping the crops of peaches and oranges throughout the area. The summer is nasty, though, since the jet stream, recovering after it's trip from the Pacific ocean, swings northward, sending a very active hurricane season right into Florida and right up the coast. The gulf states will usually be spared, but a storm still can cross Florida and hit a gulf State pretty hard.

The Pacific storm pattern tends to leave the United States alone, sending typhoons instead into Asia.

La Nina is also marked for the particularly good fishing off the coast of Mexico, as nutrient rich waters rise from below and attract fish from all over the Pacific.

NOAA's best indication of a La Nina is the cooling of ocean water by it's monitoring buoys, which tend to be located at the east end of the shifted current.

The best description for why these events occur is a the competing strengths of two conflicting currents in the Pacific; the Equatorial Counter Current and the Northern and Southern Equatorial currents, which flow the other way. If either the Northern or Southern Equatorial currents shift for any reason it allows the Equatorial Counter Current to strengthen, and we get an El Nino event. If either the Northern or Southern currents become stronger, it effectively 'shuts the valve' for the Counter Current and the prevailing currents sweep warm water westward producing an La Nina event.

The Polynesian people, who had no sextants, were able to navigate across these shifting currents noting only the wind, the clouds, the stars, and the fish they saw. Many of their legends describe these techniques, typically as a dance of some kind (the Hula in Hawaii for instance, which is noted for it's particularly large vocabulary and grace).


The Parrot Killer
Edited on 29-11-2015 03:29




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