The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
| The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)03-01-2021 06:07 | |
| duncan61★★★★★ (2021) |
Dr Glen Peters, research director at CICERO in Norway, tells Carbon Brief: "With the benefit of hindsight, the 'new scenario framework' (SSP/RCPs) did not function as planned. The integration between climate models and IAMs (RCPs and SSPs) never really happened; the RCPs were only intended to be a short-cut, and merged with SSPs back in 2012, but it is 2019 and we are only now seeing integration, albeit somewhat limited. At this point I think only a vanishingly small number of modellers on both climate and energy understand the background on why SSPs and RCPs were even developed, and that has led to deep misunderstandings. "The RCPs have served the climate modelling community well, they have had consistent pathways to run and compare their models. With the RCPs, the need for the IAM community is essentially gone, and therefore much of the diversity and nuance from IAMs happens in a parallel literature." It did not happen and at last someone is admitting it.Carbon brief still claim its warming and we will all die soon duncan61 |
| 03-01-2021 06:33 | |
IBdaMann ★★★★★(14394) |
duncan61 wrote:"... The integration between climate models and IAMs (RCPs and SSPs) never really happened; the RCPs were only intended to be a short-cut, and merged with SSPs back in 2012, but it is 2019 and we are only now seeing integration, albeit somewhat limited. At this point I think only a vanishingly small number of modellers on both climate and energy understand the background on why SSPs and RCPs were even developed, and that has led to deep misunderstandings. Just to let you know, I put "climate models" in the same category with UFOs, Bigfoot, the Loch Ness Monster and the chupacabra. The only examples anyone will show me are small, blurry pictures that look eerily similar to ink-blot tests. Nobody in the history of humanity has ever unambiguously defined "the global climate" ... which is absolutely required in order to create a computer program to emulate such. Fables and myths concerning "Climate models" are concocted to perpetuate the belief that there are such things as "climate models," that the global climate has somehow been unambiguously defined and that it really is a thing and not a hoax. I'm not buying it. All of the above that you quoted is simply bullshit. The goal is not to justify procedures involving "climate models." The goal is to popularize the belief that there actually are such things. Marxists will gladly feign a "mia culpa" if it will fool you into legitimizing the concept of "climate models." Then they can just pull out new "models" and you will then be required to believe whatever they tell you. You will have legitimized whatever they decide to fabricate. I'm not going to be party to that. . I don't think i can [define it]. I just kind of get a feel for the phrase. - keepit A Spaghetti strainer with the faucet running, retains water- tmiddles Clouds don't trap heat. Clouds block cold. - Spongy Iris Printing dollars to pay debt doesn't increase the number of dollars. - keepit If Venus were a black body it would have a much much lower temperature than what we found there.- tmiddles Ah the "Valid Data" myth of ITN/IBD. - tmiddles Ceist - I couldn't agree with you more. But when money and religion are involved, and there are people who value them above all else, then the lies begin. - trafn You are completely misunderstanding their use of the word "accumulation"! - Climate Scientist. The Stefan-Boltzman equation doesn't come up with the correct temperature if greenhouse gases are not considered - Hank :*sigh* Not the "raw data" crap. - Leafsdude IB STILL hasn't explained what Planck's Law means. Just more hand waving that it applies to everything and more asserting that the greenhouse effect 'violates' it.- Ceist |
| 03-01-2021 22:40 | |
HarveyH55 ★★★★★(5196) |
The models they use with weather predictions, are probably some of the oldest, and best examples of what can be expected out of that technology. They are a tool, and they can help, but they also get it wrong quite often. They can predict the path of a storm, and intensity, but not always the hour, or even day. Those storms can also fizzle, before the arrive, and a whole lot of nothing, not even a drop of rain. The location of the area expected to be hardest hit, isn't all that accurate either. The weather models have been in the works, since there were computers to run them. The predictions, and the actual results can be compared very quickly, and often. I can't imagine how anyone could truly believe that climate models are exponentially better, than our current weather models, which aren't that reliable. I suppose for most places, the weather isn't of huge consequence, and easier to buy the accuracy. Here in Florida, we get a lot of extreme weather, and an early warning is greatly appreciated. The accuracy of those predictions are often very important, the failures are noteworthy. |
| 05-01-2021 02:33 | |
| duncan61★★★★★ (2021) |
A good analogy I read of the climate modelling was you build an aircraft and state it can fly 600 miles but it only flys 200 miles before running out of fuel.Is that acceptable??In the climate modelling world they just get more funding and say we will get it right next time and we have learned a lot.2016 apparently set all these high temperature records.The modelling only goes up but here we are 4 years later and its going down.Its all gone quiet on the western front regarding that blip |
| 05-01-2021 13:52 | |
Into the Night ★★★★★(21588) |
duncan61 wrote: BAD analogy. Aircraft are designed for a specific type of mission they fly. Their fuel capacity and their range is part of the design. There are no surprises here. There is no guesswork here. Everything about any aircraft is from careful design. We aren't building tree houses here. duncan61 wrote: Just to keep the scam going. duncan61 wrote: The temperature of Earth is unknown. It is not possible to measure it. duncan61 wrote: What blip?? The Parrot Killer Debunked in my sig. - tmiddles Google keeps track of paranoid talk and i'm not on their list. I've been evaluated and certified. - keepit nuclear powered ships do not require nuclear fuel. - Swan While it is true that fossils do not burn it is also true that fossil fuels burn very well - Swan |
| 06-01-2021 05:47 | |
| duncan61★★★★★ (2021) |
Love your work ITN |
| 06-01-2021 06:03 | |
| Into the Night★★★★★ (21588) |
duncan61 wrote: Thanks. The Parrot Killer Debunked in my sig. - tmiddles Google keeps track of paranoid talk and i'm not on their list. I've been evaluated and certified. - keepit nuclear powered ships do not require nuclear fuel. - Swan While it is true that fossils do not burn it is also true that fossil fuels burn very well - Swan |
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