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Science of Climate Change

Science of Climate Change25-03-2017 13:00
Few questions I have here which I hope someone can provide an answer to.

1) How does the IPCC calculate the low, medium and high confidence projections as used in their fifth assessment report?

2) On a temperature projection graph, how are the temperature uncertainties (the limits either side of the main temperature projection, calculated?

3) How are the RCP scenarios calculated i.e. so I can mathematically see the difference between RCP8.5 and 2.6 for example.

25-03-2017 14:35
1) the IPCC report says this on the subject;Each finding is grounded in an evaluation of underlying evidence and agreement. In many cases, a synthesis of evidence and agreement supports an
assignment of confidence. The summary terms for evidence are: limited, medium or robust. For agreement, they are low, medium or high. A level of
confidence is expressed using five qualifiers: very low, low, medium, high and very high, and typeset in italics, e.g., medium confidence. The following
terms have been used to indicate the assessed likelihood of an outcome or a result: virtually certain 99–100% probability, very likely 90–100%,
likely 66–100%, about as likely as not 33–66%, unlikely 0–33%, very unlikely 0–10%, exceptionally unlikely 0–1%. Additional terms (extremely
likely 95–100%, more likely than not >50–100%, more unlikely than likely 0–<50%, extremely unlikely 0–5%) may also be used when appropriate.
Assessed likelihood is typeset in italics, e.g., very likely. See for more details: Mastrandrea, M.D., C.B. Field, T.F. Stocker, O. Edenhofer, K.L. Ebi, D.J. Frame,
H. Held, E. Kriegler, K.J. Mach, P.R. Matschoss, G.-K. Plattner, G.W. Yohe and F.W. Zwiers, 2
010: Guidance Note for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment
Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Geneva, Switzerland, 4 pp

2) error bars? If you are a student you should be able to find this out for yourself here is a resource about error bars in a lab,

3) There seems to be a wealth of information on the web, have you looked at the general quality of posts on this forum and do you expect to learn anything you could not learn searching yourself?
25-03-2017 18:36
I am not sure of this, but I understand that the confidence levels are used in the summary for policy makers, rather than the actual scientific findings. Perhaps spot knows about this.

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