|Rapid climate shift due to Albedo Flip29-04-2013 23:37|
|In the past orbital forcing appears to have been well advanced compared to the rise in temps which appear to stay glacial even though incoming solar increases. There comes a point when temps suddenly leap up over a matter of a decade or so (look at the end of the Y.D. with a 10c leap over around a decade).|
At some point vast areas of the ice sheet are so thin as to melt out over one summer leading to a huge 'albedo flip' with 90% of the incoming solar (now orbitally forced higher than in the ice age) instead of 90% bouncing straight back into space.
The recent loss of over half the ice cover in the Arctic Ocean over a portion of the year , along with the ever earlier retreat of snow cover in spring, is unleashing a 'mini' albedo flip on the planet allowing far more energy to be trapped by the planet than was when ice/snow bounced it back into space.
Are we about to enter a rapid climate warming of our own? Will this further accelerate ice loss over the ice sheets and bring an ice free Arctic ocean over the coming few years?
CO2 is poised to pass 400ppm this week, a point not reached in over 800,000yrs. High GHG levels and a sudden increase in the energy the planet is able to absorb does not sound a good mix to me?
What do you think?
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Edited by branner on 07-07-2013 17:09
|Tim the plumber★★★★☆
|Hey I thought the tipping point thing was dead!|
Since the Arctic ocean has recovered it's self with ice looks like it has gone away again.
|'Tipping point' is a way of looking at a systems workings and not an actual 'thing'.|
As for an Arctic recovery ? Where did you glean that from? The most positive conflagration of drivers to retain ice and we still plummet to 6th lowest in the series??? I take it you will be convincing us it's all over the next conflagration of positive forcings we see across the Arctic ( the 'perfect storm' set of synoptics cycle around every 10 to 20yrs......the 2 prior to 07' being tend years apart.....).
2012 was an 'average' year across the basin and this saw us scrape a further 18% off the record low the last perfect storm brought us so where will the next one leave us???
When you look at the volume loss over the past 60yrs , of which 40yrs were under 'negative' natural forcings, then surely you have to have concerns about the next positive set of natural forcings and the impacts they will have on this skim of winter sea ice?
If you look at the current energy imbalance in the climate system ( the amount of energy we measure entering our atmosphere compared to the energy we measure leaving) it makes sense that a fair swathe of it is 'spent' melting ice. Such activity uses the energy but does not impact atmospheric temps but does lessen the amount of 'spare energy' the climate system has. The Arctic is now running on bare minimum with even this cold Arctic summer shedding a massive amount of ice ( compared to in the 80's or 90's) so where will we now shed this energy to save it from further heating the oceans/atmosphere?
I'm quite Lovelockian in my understanding of how the climate system works. It's probably best understood by looking at it as a spring and applying Hooke's law to it where we see forcings.
Nature tries her best to avoid rapid 'change' (why evolution is such a slow thing in response to this?) and so has fail-safes within the climate system allowing Her to soak up forcings over the short term but , like Hooke's Law, only to a point ( for Hooke the 'elastic limit' for Mother N. 'Tipping points').
We have now used up nearly all of one of Natures 'fail-safes' and so the next round of positive natural forcings will no longer have a portion 'soaked up' but will spend that energy in effecting real change that we can measure.
The last time we saw an El-Nino ( 2010) it was a moderate affair yet hiked global temps higher than the 98' 'super Nino'. We have since seen a run of Nina events placing all the warming into the ocean and awaiting the next Nino ( where all of that heat escapes into the atmosphere). What will the next 'moderate Nino' do to world temps? What if we are due another 'super Nin, due to the amassing of heat the Nina dominated noughties allowed for?
What of the Arctic then?
Most climate misleaders pointed to the last time global temps were rising at the fastest rate ever measured as being impacted by a number of 'Natural' positive forcings. Since the rate of warming slowed down we have not seen them point to all the negative natural forcings but instead they suggested it proved that AGW isn't real. Can they have it both ways?
When Natural forcings again flip positive over the coming years will they again blame nature for the rises or will they finally suggest that some of the forcing is man made?
On a personal note I do believe that the next El-Nino will be another major event and I believe it will be a signal that the current cold drivers are losing their power to impact our global temps as the positive ones begin to again impact temps.
"old sick silly sleepy sleezy slimy steenkin' filthy vile reprobate rooting (& rotting) racist pukey proud pig AGW denier liar whiner tipped the leaky plunger" puffed: the Arctic ocean has recovered it's self with ice
"old sick silly sleepy sleezy slimy steenkin' filthy vile reprobate rooting (& rotting) racist pukey proud pig AGW denier liar whiner tipped the leaky plunger" lied in this old post. The Arctic sea ice was 10,000 cubic kilometers LESS than in the 1980's at the time of the year when there is a wide seasonal disparity in Arctic sea ice Volume. & now in 2017, Arctic sea ice Volume is 9600 cubic kilometers less than in the to date 1980's, at the time of the year when there is FAR LESS yearly Arctic sea ice disparity.... 'cept the gap is gettin' wider & wider compared to the 1980's.
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