|Population Growth01-05-2019 03:41|
|There have been some misguided comments on various forums about population growth. The truth is that we WILL end up with about 11 billion people on planet earth by the end of this century - unless, that is, there's a catastrophic climate meltdown in the meantime. The reason for this is simple, and it doesn't involve people having large families. Basically there will be an inevitable build-up of adults, simply as a result of the larger number of young people in the world today, who will grow up and have kids themselves. If you don't believe me, just look at the world's population pyramid: https://www.populationpyramid.net/world/2019/ |
Infant mortality has gone down massively. And that's a good thing, right? Children dying can only be bad! Therefore, it's inevitable that there will be more adults in the world in the coming decades, and they only need to replace themselves for the world's population to rise to 11 billion.
So we have to accept that population growth will continue. But the good news is that we WILL get to a stable population by the end of this century - in other words, whilst population growth is continuing, it is also slowing down. That's largely due to two things: better family planning and that reduction in infant mortality. Families don't choose to have loads of kids if they know the ones they have will survive, and they're educated about the benefits of a small family. Already the global fertility rate is down to below 2.5 babies per woman.
So the big question is this: can we sustainably support a population of 11 billion people? I personally believe it's possible, but we've got to radically rethink how our resources are allocated. And we have to educate ourselves about the realities we face. Having smaller families may help in the long term, but the demographic 'ship' is like an oil tanker - it cannot be stopped or turned around easily, and attempts to do so are notoriously fraught with difficulties - just look at China's one child policy.
Thanks for reading this far! Visit www.seanscatchard.com if you'd like to read more from me. I'd also recommend www.gapminder.org as a great source of statistical info.
With energy costs getting cheaper and cheaper the major reason for population expansion is losing its drive - people's necessity to be taken care of in their old age. Also the fertility rates of men have been falling dramatically. Men are now only 50% as fertile as they were in 1950 and scientists have no idea what that is.
I wouldn't worry about population growth as much as I would worry about the environmentalists somehow getting into power and reducing energy availability which is little more than genocide. The Democrats have spoke of genocide since the Civil War and under Obama the laws were being passed to allow this.
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