One reason for social distancing/isolation

tmiddles wrote:

HarveyH55 wrote:
Covid-19 isn't any more deadly, than any other seasonal respiratory infection available. Less deadly than most, since the majority of those dying, already had one foot in the grave, before being infected.

Reality by Fiat again there Harvey. You turn a blind eye to the reality shown in the graph below:



How do your reconcile that with the fantasy you've invented about Covid-19?

Just saying stuff, without giving a reason for the conclusions drawn, is the hallmark of the deniers on this forum. It applies to the climate topics as well.

The OOYA made up stuff reminds me of one of my favorite Jack Handy's:

tmiddles wrote:

HarveyH55 wrote:
Covid-19 isn't any more deadly, than any other seasonal respiratory infection available. Less deadly than most, since the majority of those dying, already had one foot in the grave, before being infected.

Reality by Fiat again there Harvey. You turn a blind eye to the reality shown in the graph below:



How do your reconcile that with the fantasy you've invented about Covid-19?

Just saying stuff, without giving a reason for the conclusions drawn, is the hallmark of the deniers on this forum. It applies to the climate topics as well.

The OOYA made up stuff reminds me of one of my favorite Jack Handy's:

Scott Gottlieb, President Donald Trump's former head of the Food and Drug Administration, expressed concern about the state's numbers.

"South Dakota has become one of the fastest growing hot spots in U.S., even as other parts of nation see their epidemics start to level off or slow.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/south-dakota-gov-noem-who-opposed-stay-home-order-now-n1184851

HarveyH55 wrote:
Least it's a Hockey-stick graph, Al Gore would be proud of you. Probably just as useful as the IPCC graphs and charts, and just as bogus.

gfm7175 wrote:[IBdaMann]...did not cite InfoWars as an alternative to Wikipedia. He cited it as an example of a right wing news site, after YOU brought up the matter.

gfm7175 wrote:
It's just a flu. You're fear mongering again.

gfm7175 wrote:
You have yet to define the word "reality".

HarveyH55 wrote:The response to Covid-19, is sort of like banning all foods, than cause severe and deadly allergic reactions.

tmiddles wrote:If not banning those foods would mean that hospitals would be effectively shut down with the rush of those dying from allergic reactions. In that case we would be banning those foods.

IBdaMann wrote:
...a weak flu season....

tmiddles wrote:

IBdaMann wrote:
...a weak flu season....

what do you base that assesment on?

HarveyH55 wrote:
Just look up the respiratory infection death totals, for an average cold an flu season...

Yeah, it's worst than 'normal', but not as bad as other pandemics. .

keepit wrote:
Harvey,
It's the infection rate that's causing the large and growing number of deaths. It's not the case fatality rate. It's the fatality rate for just living in dangerous places.
This thing is more contagious than you think. The difference is subtle but real.

tmiddles wrote:

HarveyH55 wrote:
Just look up the respiratory infection death totals, for an average cold an flu season...

Yeah, it's worst than 'normal', but not as bad as other pandemics. .

Ok let's look:


Yep way way way worse than "normal"

What do you mean by other pandemics? Smallpox? The black death?

keepit wrote:
James,
I don't see why that link shows such a smaller number of deaths per day than the cable news.
I don't think reductions in intubations is quite as significant as as it was. The ER doc are turning some patients on their stomachs and giving them oxygen and cpap rather than intubations/ventilators.

keepit wrote:
James,
I don't see why that link shows such a smaller number of deaths per day than the cable news.
I don't think reductions in intubations is quite as significant as as it was. The ER doc are turning some patients on their stomachs and giving them oxygen and cpap rather than intubations/ventilators.

HarveyH55 wrote:
Wearing a mask sucks. I was given one at work, because of the county mandate. Fortunately, they didn't require us to actually wear them at work. Tried it on, restricted air-flow, took it off. I do physical work, need to breath freely. I don't have a cough or cold, nothing to spray on others. Mask wouldn't prevent me from getting infected. It's a large warehouse, little over a thousand employees. Some practice the recommended measures, but the vast majority, just do what we normally do. No know positive cases, yet. Even stranger, no rumors, no stories of friends, family,or neighbor, even testing positive. We have people from 4 counties, that I know of, and work closely with. Orange county is a hotspot. Seems like there should have been some stories, of a personal experience. I finding it's about the same around town here too.

Don't think its been asked here, but has anybody on this sight even been tested? Does anybody have a first-hand account, of somebody around them testing positive, being hospitalized, or dying, from Covid-19?

For a contagion, spreading like a California wildfire, I'm no one seems to be smelling the smoke.

Into the Night wrote:

HarveyH55 wrote:
Wearing a mask sucks. I was given one at work, because of the county mandate. Fortunately, they didn't require us to actually wear them at work. Tried it on, restricted air-flow, took it off. I do physical work, need to breath freely. I don't have a cough or cold, nothing to spray on others. Mask wouldn't prevent me from getting infected. It's a large warehouse, little over a thousand employees. Some practice the recommended measures, but the vast majority, just do what we normally do. No know positive cases, yet. Even stranger, no rumors, no stories of friends, family,or neighbor, even testing positive. We have people from 4 counties, that I know of, and work closely with. Orange county is a hotspot. Seems like there should have been some stories, of a personal experience. I finding it's about the same around town here too.

Don't think its been asked here, but has anybody on this sight even been tested? Does anybody have a first-hand account, of somebody around them testing positive, being hospitalized, or dying, from Covid-19?

For a contagion, spreading like a California wildfire, I'm no one seems to be smelling the smoke.

Since the chance of getting infected and hospitalized for Covid-19 is 1 in 30060 (using CDC numbers), I would say it's not likely you will hear such an account here, though it is possible.

Into the Night wrote:

keepit wrote:
... number of deaths per day...intubations ....

Comparing one set of random numbers against another set of random numbers is pointless.

Into the Night wrote:
1 in 30060 (using CDC numbers)

keepit wrote:
40,000 deaths divided by 330,000 equals 1 in about 8000 and it is far from over.
The death total has doubled in the last week (20,000 to 40,000). If that doubling time continues for another month there will 160,000 deaths. Distancing has kept it that "low". I don't know what is going to happen if the country reopens in the next month or so, maybe it would be ok in montana and wyoming.

HarveyH55 wrote:
Your bell curve looks like the curve, social distancing was suppose to flatten out... Didn't work, or was it a lie? Like any new, respiratory infection, the first couple of years, kill a lot of unhealthy people. Just the natural order of the universe. You can try and fight nature, but you will eventual die anyway, limited lifespan. You can uses your time on earth, actually living, or you can hide in your basement, and try to cheat the clock.

tmiddles wrote:

HarveyH55 wrote:
Your bell curve looks like the curve, social distancing was suppose to flatten out... Didn't work, or was it a lie? Like any new, respiratory infection, the first couple of years, kill a lot of unhealthy people. Just the natural order of the universe. You can try and fight nature, but you will eventual die anyway, limited lifespan. You can uses your time on earth, actually living, or you can hide in your basement, and try to cheat the clock.

It's a bell curve either way. I think are referring to this:


You have dismissed all the information as bogus haven't you Harvey? Nothing can be known? Is there any data you trust?

You directly indicated the graph I shared on deaths by week in New York was "bogus" so you tell me.

And we have very successfully fought mother nature and a lot fewer people have died as a result.

Humans are very effective in this area:


You should be proud of and confident in this branch of science. It's the best thing to ever happen to us as a species.

HarveyH55 wrote:
Least it's a Hockey-stick graph, Al Gore would be proud of you. Probably just as useful as the IPCC graphs and charts, and just as bogus.

Like most health people, I'm not deathly afraid of catching a cold. It's not going to kill me. I know enough not to go visit my 84 y.o. mother, when I'm not feeling well. It's possible to handle a cold, and still be responsible, without hiding in the basement. You been self-isolating so long, it's normal living to you. It's not normal, it's not living, it's paranoia.

I've got it better than most, since I have an essential job, and still get out, in a mostly normal routine. There are some restrictions, and inconveniences, but I can still do plenty of stuff around the house, like getting a head start on hurricane season preparations. Always things to do.

I know enough not to go visit my 84 y.o. mother, when I'm not feeling well. It's possible to handle a cold, and still be responsible, without hiding in the basement. You been self-isolating so long, it's normal living to you. It's not normal, it's not living, it's paranoia.

James___ wrote:

HarveyH55 wrote:
Least it's a Hockey-stick graph, Al Gore would be proud of you. Probably just as useful as the IPCC graphs and charts, and just as bogus.

Like most health people, I'm not deathly afraid of catching a cold. It's not going to kill me. I know enough not to go visit my 84 y.o. mother, when I'm not feeling well. It's possible to handle a cold, and still be responsible, without hiding in the basement. You been self-isolating so long, it's normal living to you. It's not normal, it's not living, it's paranoia.

I've got it better than most, since I have an essential job, and still get out, in a mostly normal routine. There are some restrictions, and inconveniences, but I can still do plenty of stuff around the house, like getting a head start on hurricane season preparations. Always things to do.

This sounds like paranoia if it's your family. It seems you only care about yourself and your family. That doesn't allow for a discussion, just a waste of time.

HarveyH55 wrote:

James___ wrote:

HarveyH55 wrote:
Least it's a Hockey-stick graph, Al Gore would be proud of you. Probably just as useful as the IPCC graphs and charts, and just as bogus.

Like most health people, I'm not deathly afraid of catching a cold. It's not going to kill me. I know enough not to go visit my 84 y.o. mother, when I'm not feeling well. It's possible to handle a cold, and still be responsible, without hiding in the basement. You been self-isolating so long, it's normal living to you. It's not normal, it's not living, it's paranoia.

I've got it better than most, since I have an essential job, and still get out, in a mostly normal routine. There are some restrictions, and inconveniences, but I can still do plenty of stuff around the house, like getting a head start on hurricane season preparations. Always things to do.

This sounds like paranoia if it's your family. It seems you only care about yourself and your family. That doesn't allow for a discussion, just a waste of time.

What should I be doing in my spare time? Visit some nursing homes, an sit down and talk to some elderly people, I've never met before, scare the crap out of them? knocks doors around my neighborhood, get to know the neighbors better? The state has us ordered to stay home. The county, has a curfew, and requires masks in public. No criminal penalties, so guess it doesn't matter. I care enough to follow the mandates (mostly), and not putting others at risk (most of the time). Still got my full time job, business is good.

Into the Night wrote:

tmiddles wrote:...Humans are very effective in this area:

You should be proud of and confident in this branch of science. It's the best thing to ever happen to us as a species.

This is not science. It's not mathematics either. It's random numbers.

tmiddles wrote:

Into the Night wrote:

tmiddles wrote:...Humans are very effective in this area:

You should be proud of and confident in this branch of science. It's the best thing to ever happen to us as a species.

This is not science. It's not mathematics either. It's random numbers.

ITN you are claiming the chart of small pox and other disease cases from 1920 to 2017 shown above, identified sources including World Health Organization and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, consists of "random numbers"?

tmiddles wrote:This is not science. It's not mathematics either. It's random numbers.

Into the Night wrote:
Yup.

tmiddles wrote:

Into the Night wrote: Yup.

Care to elaborate?

tmiddles wrote:
...deleted Mantras 29...38b...25g...4c...
https://www.dictionary.com/browse/random-number
random number
noun Statistics.
a number chosen by a random sampling, as from a table (random number table) or generated by a computer.

tmiddles wrote:
https://www.emathzone.com/tutorials/basic-statistics/examples-of-random-numbers.html
"Example:
Assume that a fair die is to be rolled ten times. Without rolling the die, obtain the possible outcomes using random digits."

tmiddles wrote:
I fail to see how a doctor recording the number of patients diagnosed with a disease in a given year fits that definition.

tmiddles wrote:
...deleted Mantras 16c...29...2...29...

James___ wrote:
This link has an interactive graph for New York. It also shows that in the last 10 days that have gone from 500 deaths a day to around 200. They're showing a significant downward trend. This is where if they could get everyone to wear masks, then they might be able to start getting things back to normal. If wearing a mask keeps the numbers low then would people be willing to wear one?

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

gfm7175 wrote:

James___ wrote:
This link has an interactive graph for New York. It also shows that in the last 10 days that have gone from 500 deaths a day to around 200. They're showing a significant downward trend. This is where if they could get everyone to wear masks, then they might be able to start getting things back to normal. If wearing a mask keeps the numbers low then would people be willing to wear one?

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

Masks do not stop a virus. Virions are smaller than the size of particulates that an N95 mask will filter out.

James___ wrote:

gfm7175 wrote:

James___ wrote:
This link has an interactive graph for New York. It also shows that in the last 10 days that have gone from 500 deaths a day to around 200. They're showing a significant downward trend. This is where if they could get everyone to wear masks, then they might be able to start getting things back to normal. If wearing a mask keeps the numbers low then would people be willing to wear one?

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

Masks do not stop a virus. Virions are smaller than the size of particulates that an N95 mask will filter out.

And yet every time I've had surgery, all medical personnel in the operating room are wearing masks to reduce the risk of exposing the patient to germs they might have. After all, they work in a hospital and are constantly exposed to a myriad number of bacteria or viruses. But shutting down the economy works for me. It's actually helping me

keepit wrote:
The mask are designed to stop the droplets that contain the virus.