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Marxism, Climate and Utter Dishonesty



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Marxism, Climate and Utter Dishonesty25-09-2019 00:17
IBdaMannProfile picture★★★★★
(5230)
The topic of Global Warming and Climate Change cannot be clearly understood without understanding the intentional dishonesty of the Marxist leftists pushing that agenda.

I'm not singling out tmiddles, I just want to reference the standard leftist technique of assigning bogus positions to others (which is actually projection), the intentional distortion of the messages of others and the intentional derailing of discussions by hijacking the context ... techniques that tmiddles simply happens to have mastered.

The following video takes an interesting angle on these.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-W_grolQ75E

The topic is not Global Warming per se, but rather the inherently dishonest rhetorical techniques employed by the leftists who are forced to obey the dogma.


.


Global Warming: The preferred religion of the scientifically illiterate.

Printing dollars to pay debt doesn't increase the number of dollars. - keepit

When the alt-physics birds sing about "indivisible bodies," we've got pure BS. - VernerHornung

Ah the "Valid Data" myth of ITN/IBD. - tmiddles

Ceist - I couldn't agree with you more. But when money and religion are involved, and there are people who value them above all else, then the lies begin. - trafn

You are completely misunderstanding their use of the word "accumulation"! - Climate Scientist.

The Stefan-Boltzman equation doesn't come up with the correct temperature if greenhouse gases are not considered - Hank

:*sigh* Not the "raw data" crap. - Leafsdude

IB STILL hasn't explained what Planck's Law means. Just more hand waving that it applies to everything and more asserting that the greenhouse effect 'violates' it.- Ceist
25-09-2019 00:54
keepit
★★★☆☆
(783)
Now tell us what you really think!
25-09-2019 02:27
IBdaMannProfile picture★★★★★
(5230)
keepit wrote: Now tell us what you really think!

I have to hand it to you. You've demonstrated a pretty thick skin lately. Good on you.


Global Warming: The preferred religion of the scientifically illiterate.

Printing dollars to pay debt doesn't increase the number of dollars. - keepit

When the alt-physics birds sing about "indivisible bodies," we've got pure BS. - VernerHornung

Ah the "Valid Data" myth of ITN/IBD. - tmiddles

Ceist - I couldn't agree with you more. But when money and religion are involved, and there are people who value them above all else, then the lies begin. - trafn

You are completely misunderstanding their use of the word "accumulation"! - Climate Scientist.

The Stefan-Boltzman equation doesn't come up with the correct temperature if greenhouse gases are not considered - Hank

:*sigh* Not the "raw data" crap. - Leafsdude

IB STILL hasn't explained what Planck's Law means. Just more hand waving that it applies to everything and more asserting that the greenhouse effect 'violates' it.- Ceist
25-09-2019 03:35
keepit
★★★☆☆
(783)
It's all scar tissue.
25-09-2019 03:41
keepit
★★★☆☆
(783)
Printing dollars.
i remember silver certificates and i think there were gold certificates.
I think they said payable to the bearer on demand or some such.
In other words the govt is responsible for the dollars it issues as well as the treasuries it issues. So there is an equivalence between the two. Such as E=MC2.
This means the govt can trade responsibility for dollars in exchange for responsibility for treasuries. Such as paying off the printed treasuries with printed dollars.

You can't do this at the breakfast table but the govt can do it.

"Printing dollars to pay off govt debt doesn't increase or decrease govt responsibility."
Edited on 25-09-2019 03:44
25-09-2019 04:04
Into the NightProfile picture★★★★★
(10256)
keepit wrote:
Printing dollars.
i remember silver certificates and i think there were gold certificates.

There were both. When they were used, a $20 gold certificate would let you claim 1 oz of fine gold from any bank. Sort of a universal certificate deposit.
keepit wrote:
I think they said payable to the bearer on demand or some such.

Yup. Payable in gold or silver, depending on the certificate.
keepit wrote:
In other words the govt is responsible for the dollars it issues as well as the treasuries it issues.

No. The dollars were claims of gold from any bank. The treasury would reimburse that bank for the gold out of the treasury. The bank gives the note to the treasury for the reimbursement, and the treasury would use it with another bank to get its gold back, or the original bank would simply use the note for another depositor.
keepit wrote:
So there is an equivalence between the two. Such as E=MC2.

Bonds and money are not the same thing. Neither is a form of energy.
keepit wrote:
This means the govt can trade responsibility for dollars in exchange for responsibility for treasuries. Such as paying off the printed treasuries with printed dollars.

No, just printing dollars makes them worthless.
keepit wrote:
You can't do this at the breakfast table but the govt can do it.

But you can (if you don't like your friend much). Say a friend of yours borrows $100 from you. The next day, over a breakfast you two share, your friend decides to write $100 on a napkin, call it money, and hand it to you to pay off the debt.

Same thing.
keepit wrote:
"Printing dollars to pay off govt debt doesn't increase or decrease govt responsibility."

True. It does decrease the value of the dollar though.


The Parrot Killer
25-09-2019 05:12
keepit
★★★☆☆
(783)
ITN,
When those treasuries that are held in foreign countries come due the us is legally responsible to either redeem them for cash or sell more treasuries to raise the cash to pay off those other other treasuries.
I get it that it seems odd but the dollar could be heading for a problem. I doubt there are many people in the world that want to see the dollar collapse. Well, maybe there are a few countries that do.
We don't have 22 trillion dollars sitting in the Treasury bldg.
25-09-2019 17:21
IBdaMannProfile picture★★★★★
(5230)
keepit wrote: It's all scar tissue.

Remember to never pick as scabs ... other people will do that for you.


Global Warming: The preferred religion of the scientifically illiterate.

Printing dollars to pay debt doesn't increase the number of dollars. - keepit

When the alt-physics birds sing about "indivisible bodies," we've got pure BS. - VernerHornung

Ah the "Valid Data" myth of ITN/IBD. - tmiddles

Ceist - I couldn't agree with you more. But when money and religion are involved, and there are people who value them above all else, then the lies begin. - trafn

You are completely misunderstanding their use of the word "accumulation"! - Climate Scientist.

The Stefan-Boltzman equation doesn't come up with the correct temperature if greenhouse gases are not considered - Hank

:*sigh* Not the "raw data" crap. - Leafsdude

IB STILL hasn't explained what Planck's Law means. Just more hand waving that it applies to everything and more asserting that the greenhouse effect 'violates' it.- Ceist
25-09-2019 21:46
Into the NightProfile picture★★★★★
(10256)
keepit wrote:
ITN,
When those treasuries that are held in foreign countries come due the us is legally responsible to either redeem them for cash or sell more treasuries to raise the cash to pay off those other other treasuries.

Using a credit card to pay off another credit card is Not gonna work. You see, there is this thing called 'interest'...
keepit wrote:
I get it that it seems odd but the dollar could be heading for a problem.

Heading? It's ALREADY got a problem!
keepit wrote:
I doubt there are many people in the world that want to see the dollar collapse.
Well, maybe there are a few countries that do.

'nuff said.
keepit wrote:
We don't have 22 trillion dollars sitting in the Treasury bldg.

Bingo.


The Parrot Killer
26-09-2019 16:38
IBdaMannProfile picture★★★★★
(5230)
keepit wrote:I get it that it seems odd but the dollar could be heading for a problem.

We are in a huge problem, one that has grown out of control and that cannot be easily fixed.

All across the US, people receive paychecks. Those paychecks have taxes withheld. The government does not wait until the end of the year to collect the taxes due but requires taxes be withheld immediately upon issuance of income.

Why?

The government needs that money immediately to pay all the people the government has obligated itself to pay and to make the ongoing interest payments on the national debt ... to keep from defaulting. There are no discretional funds available.

At this point, the only way the government can pay for something new is to borrow and to add to the national debt, and to further strain the US' ability to make the interest payments. For this reason, every year the budget necessarily involves deficit spending because we only elect candidates that promise to give us stuff and we refuse to elect candidates that promise to deny us stuff in order to control spending and to reduce debt.

So now that we have reached the fiscal limit, the leftists in government believe they finally have the opportunity they need to destroy the US economy, to destroy capitalism and to install socialism (Marxism). Now is the time to sweep the American people up on emotion to vote for government spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend spend.

They will use the emotion of "save the planet" ... from climate change, global warming, capitalists, whatever. Perhaps you can think of someone on this board who is propagating fear of CO2 as a problem.

They will manufacture hatred for Trump to get people to rally around their causes. Perhaps you can think of someone on this site who intentionally distorts everything about Trump just to further Marxist causes.

They will use identity politics to generate fear and panic of personal persecution so as to make people think that destroying capitalism will champion their defense.




... then they will roll out $multi-trillion spending packages with the words "Climate" and "Green" and "Justice" in the name, that are aimed at driving a spike through the heart of the US economy.

So, in a word, yes. We've got a problem right now.






.


Global Warming: The preferred religion of the scientifically illiterate.

Printing dollars to pay debt doesn't increase the number of dollars. - keepit

When the alt-physics birds sing about "indivisible bodies," we've got pure BS. - VernerHornung

Ah the "Valid Data" myth of ITN/IBD. - tmiddles

Ceist - I couldn't agree with you more. But when money and religion are involved, and there are people who value them above all else, then the lies begin. - trafn

You are completely misunderstanding their use of the word "accumulation"! - Climate Scientist.

The Stefan-Boltzman equation doesn't come up with the correct temperature if greenhouse gases are not considered - Hank

:*sigh* Not the "raw data" crap. - Leafsdude

IB STILL hasn't explained what Planck's Law means. Just more hand waving that it applies to everything and more asserting that the greenhouse effect 'violates' it.- Ceist
26-09-2019 21:17
HarveyH55
★★★★☆
(1513)
Long time ago, they realized the national debt was a big problem, and created a 'debt-ceiling', the credit limit. Unfortunately, they keep raising it, and borrowing, and spending. They work out a budget, takes all year, government shutdown likely. Then, they spend as they please anyway. Setting a great example to America's youth, on how to manage household finances. When you get into a rough spot, you don't cut back on the finer things, you just get more credit, use balance transfers and cash advances (fees added, of course). The more credit extended, and greater the debt, makes for a higher interest rate on additional credit, you need, just to keep up on minimum payments. You can go debt consolidation, for a fee, less desirable interest rate, and a single, large monthly payment. But, at least you only have one collection agency hounding you, if you are late or default. There is always bankruptcy, might not forgive all your debt, and you might lose some stuff, your home, business.

I'd rather see all that climate change cash applied to paying off the national debt. Instead of wasting time on climate change, they should focus the same on resolving our debt problem, and ways to prevent it from getting out of hand again. This would be a much better gift to our grandchildren.
27-09-2019 02:35
Into the NightProfile picture★★★★★
(10256)
HarveyH55 wrote:
Long time ago, they realized the national debt was a big problem, and created a 'debt-ceiling', the credit limit. Unfortunately, they keep raising it, and borrowing, and spending. They work out a budget, takes all year, government shutdown likely. Then, they spend as they please anyway.

Which only goes to show you that there really is no such thing as a 'debt ceiling'. The very use of the term is to try to placate the clueless.
HarveyH55 wrote:
Setting a great example to America's youth, on how to manage household finances. When you get into a rough spot, you don't cut back on the finer things, you just get more credit, use balance transfers and cash advances (fees added, of course). The more credit extended, and greater the debt, makes for a higher interest rate on additional credit, you need, just to keep up on minimum payments.

Don't forget using one loan to pay off another! Kind of what the bond market is doing right now.
HarveyH55 wrote:
You can go debt consolidation, for a fee, less desirable interest rate, and a single, large monthly payment. But, at least you only have one collection agency hounding you, if you are late or default. There is always bankruptcy, might not forgive all your debt, and you might lose some stuff, your home, business.

When that happens to a government, it can mean anything from enforced cancellation of a lot of programs, loss of governmental power, or even an outright collapse of the government.

They can't pay their employees anymore. The money they are using is worthless.
They can't pay government contracts anymore. The money they are using is worthless.
They can't pay for military anymore. The money they have is worthless. This can leave a nation open to collapse.

A default is a terrible thing to happen to a government.

When it happens to a local government:
* no police. They don't have the money to pay them.
* no fire department. They don't have the money to pay them.
* no road maintanence. They don't have the money to pay them.
* no local welfare services. They don't have the money to give them.
It forces governments to cut services in an uncontrolled manner.

That fate awaits our U.S. government. Congress has no inclination of making the 180 degree course correction. It's essentially committed. It's only a matter of time.
HarveyH55 wrote:
I'd rather see all that climate change cash applied to paying off the national debt. Instead of wasting time on climate change, they should focus the same on resolving our debt problem, and ways to prevent it from getting out of hand again.

You are asking Congress to suddenly be responsible fiscally. Good luck with that!
HarveyH55 wrote:
This would be a much better gift to our grandchildren.

That it would! Unfortunately, I fear it's only dreaming that such a thing could happen.

That said, I think Trump can keep it together economically long enough for a 2nd term to run out. Even improve things. You see, he is not out to make everyone dependent on a government. Capitalism can operate independent of any government. A government bankruptcy when it comes, will affect governments and people dependent on them the hardest.


The Parrot Killer
Edited on 27-09-2019 02:39
28-09-2019 03:53
keepit
★★★☆☆
(783)
If you assume the govt is going to default (i don't think so), and you owned treasuries, wouldn't you rather cash those treasuries in now than suffer a default. Personally i don't think we're going to default.
28-09-2019 04:13
GasGuzzler
★★★★☆
(1531)
keepit wrote:
.... Personally i don't think we're going to default.


No? Have you seen this?

https://www.usdebtclock.org/

The scary one to me is the US unfunded liabilities. Rising at a rate of around a million dollars every 5 seconds. (bottom right)

That should make you choke on your Cheerios.


spot-
Into the Night is also has delusions of comptance
28-09-2019 05:17
HarveyH55
★★★★☆
(1513)
The debt exceeded the point where we might have made some progress in paying it down, without seriously cutting back on services, a long time ago. Mostly, we run on credit, and have been squeezing it pretty hard for a long time. Creditors don't want anybody to default, minimum payments, slow payments, or even some effort to make a payment, is better than no payment at all. When the debt goes into default, they have very little chance of getting much, or anything more out of it. Most creditors aren't too upset, if they didn't actually lose investment money, just profit. The problem with a country making slow payments, is that it reduce confidence. It gets harder to borrow money, or get involved any business, where it's doesn't involve cash up front. Other counties are going to be a little reluctant to pay us in advance, since they can't be sure we can deliver, before spending their payments. We also lose preferred interest rates, and are just lucky to get a loan, regardless of terms.

The national debt is probably our biggest crisis, but it gets hidden behind all the other desperate 'needs' to keep spending more than we are taking in. Trump has got one thing right, we have to increase our nation revenue substantially, and cut back on wasteful spending, keep more of our business here in America. Everyday can't be expected to be a party, a celebration. Hardships are a part of living, and can never be completely erased by spending to avoid them. Companies fail, and will continue to fail, no matter how many times you bail them out. Sure, a lot of people will lose jobs, cities will feel the strain, maybe the whole state, in some cases. That bail out money would have been better spent on other business, or a new source of revenue, something else to prove jobs. Some people don't want to do any other type of work, or relocate to find other job opportunities. It was never the government's responsibility to cater to your personal wants and needs, only provide you the freedom to pursue them on your own. A business that fails, just opens an operatunity for someone else to come in and fill the gap. There are some rough times during the transition, either ride it out, and hope for the best, or relocate. A fun, problem free life, is expensive, somebody still picks up the tab, and the party has to end sometime.
28-09-2019 15:17
IBdaMannProfile picture★★★★★
(5230)
HarveyH55 wrote:
The debt exceeded the point where we might have made some progress in paying it down, without seriously cutting back on services, a long time ago. Mostly, we run on credit, and have been squeezing it pretty hard for a long time. Creditors don't want anybody to default, minimum payments, slow payments, or even some effort to make a payment, is better than no payment at all. When the debt goes into default, they have very little chance of getting much, or anything more out of it. Most creditors aren't too upset, if they didn't actually lose investment money, just profit. The problem with a country making slow payments, is that it reduce confidence. It gets harder to borrow money, or get involved any business, where it's doesn't involve cash up front. Other counties are going to be a little reluctant to pay us in advance, since they can't be sure we can deliver, before spending their payments. We also lose preferred interest rates, and are just lucky to get a loan, regardless of terms.

The national debt is probably our biggest crisis, but it gets hidden behind all the other desperate 'needs' to keep spending more than we are taking in. Trump has got one thing right, we have to increase our nation revenue substantially, and cut back on wasteful spending, keep more of our business here in America. Everyday can't be expected to be a party, a celebration. Hardships are a part of living, and can never be completely erased by spending to avoid them. Companies fail, and will continue to fail, no matter how many times you bail them out. Sure, a lot of people will lose jobs, cities will feel the strain, maybe the whole state, in some cases. That bail out money would have been better spent on other business, or a new source of revenue, something else to prove jobs. Some people don't want to do any other type of work, or relocate to find other job opportunities. It was never the government's responsibility to cater to your personal wants and needs, only provide you the freedom to pursue them on your own. A business that fails, just opens an operatunity for someone else to come in and fill the gap. There are some rough times during the transition, either ride it out, and hope for the best, or relocate. A fun, problem free life, is expensive, somebody still picks up the tab, and the party has to end sometime.

Well said. All of it.

.


Global Warming: The preferred religion of the scientifically illiterate.

Printing dollars to pay debt doesn't increase the number of dollars. - keepit

When the alt-physics birds sing about "indivisible bodies," we've got pure BS. - VernerHornung

Ah the "Valid Data" myth of ITN/IBD. - tmiddles

Ceist - I couldn't agree with you more. But when money and religion are involved, and there are people who value them above all else, then the lies begin. - trafn

You are completely misunderstanding their use of the word "accumulation"! - Climate Scientist.

The Stefan-Boltzman equation doesn't come up with the correct temperature if greenhouse gases are not considered - Hank

:*sigh* Not the "raw data" crap. - Leafsdude

IB STILL hasn't explained what Planck's Law means. Just more hand waving that it applies to everything and more asserting that the greenhouse effect 'violates' it.- Ceist
28-09-2019 19:14
Into the NightProfile picture★★★★★
(10256)
keepit wrote:
If you assume the govt is going to default (i don't think so), and you owned treasuries, wouldn't you rather cash those treasuries in now than suffer a default. Personally i don't think we're going to default.


Your gamble. I think you'll have better odds on a craps table.


The Parrot Killer
28-09-2019 19:36
Into the NightProfile picture★★★★★
(10256)
GasGuzzler wrote:
keepit wrote:
.... Personally i don't think we're going to default.


No? Have you seen this?

https://www.usdebtclock.org/

The scary one to me is the US unfunded liabilities. Rising at a rate of around a million dollars every 5 seconds. (bottom right)

That should make you choke on your Cheerios.


There may come a day when you can't AFFORD Cheerios.



The Parrot Killer
28-09-2019 19:38
Into the NightProfile picture★★★★★
(10256)
HarveyH55 wrote:
The debt exceeded the point where we might have made some progress in paying it down, without seriously cutting back on services, a long time ago. Mostly, we run on credit, and have been squeezing it pretty hard for a long time. Creditors don't want anybody to default, minimum payments, slow payments, or even some effort to make a payment, is better than no payment at all. When the debt goes into default, they have very little chance of getting much, or anything more out of it. Most creditors aren't too upset, if they didn't actually lose investment money, just profit. The problem with a country making slow payments, is that it reduce confidence. It gets harder to borrow money, or get involved any business, where it's doesn't involve cash up front. Other counties are going to be a little reluctant to pay us in advance, since they can't be sure we can deliver, before spending their payments. We also lose preferred interest rates, and are just lucky to get a loan, regardless of terms.

The national debt is probably our biggest crisis, but it gets hidden behind all the other desperate 'needs' to keep spending more than we are taking in. Trump has got one thing right, we have to increase our nation revenue substantially, and cut back on wasteful spending, keep more of our business here in America. Everyday can't be expected to be a party, a celebration. Hardships are a part of living, and can never be completely erased by spending to avoid them. Companies fail, and will continue to fail, no matter how many times you bail them out. Sure, a lot of people will lose jobs, cities will feel the strain, maybe the whole state, in some cases. That bail out money would have been better spent on other business, or a new source of revenue, something else to prove jobs. Some people don't want to do any other type of work, or relocate to find other job opportunities. It was never the government's responsibility to cater to your personal wants and needs, only provide you the freedom to pursue them on your own. A business that fails, just opens an operatunity for someone else to come in and fill the gap. There are some rough times during the transition, either ride it out, and hope for the best, or relocate. A fun, problem free life, is expensive, somebody still picks up the tab, and the party has to end sometime.


Which is why more and more people are looking to convert their dollars into gold, silver, diamonds, Bitcoin, etc.


The Parrot Killer
28-09-2019 20:03
GasGuzzler
★★★★☆
(1531)
Into the Night wrote:
HarveyH55 wrote:
The debt exceeded the point where we might have made some progress in paying it down, without seriously cutting back on services, a long time ago. Mostly, we run on credit, and have been squeezing it pretty hard for a long time. Creditors don't want anybody to default, minimum payments, slow payments, or even some effort to make a payment, is better than no payment at all. When the debt goes into default, they have very little chance of getting much, or anything more out of it. Most creditors aren't too upset, if they didn't actually lose investment money, just profit. The problem with a country making slow payments, is that it reduce confidence. It gets harder to borrow money, or get involved any business, where it's doesn't involve cash up front. Other counties are going to be a little reluctant to pay us in advance, since they can't be sure we can deliver, before spending their payments. We also lose preferred interest rates, and are just lucky to get a loan, regardless of terms.

The national debt is probably our biggest crisis, but it gets hidden behind all the other desperate 'needs' to keep spending more than we are taking in. Trump has got one thing right, we have to increase our nation revenue substantially, and cut back on wasteful spending, keep more of our business here in America. Everyday can't be expected to be a party, a celebration. Hardships are a part of living, and can never be completely erased by spending to avoid them. Companies fail, and will continue to fail, no matter how many times you bail them out. Sure, a lot of people will lose jobs, cities will feel the strain, maybe the whole state, in some cases. That bail out money would have been better spent on other business, or a new source of revenue, something else to prove jobs. Some people don't want to do any other type of work, or relocate to find other job opportunities. It was never the government's responsibility to cater to your personal wants and needs, only provide you the freedom to pursue them on your own. A business that fails, just opens an operatunity for someone else to come in and fill the gap. There are some rough times during the transition, either ride it out, and hope for the best, or relocate. A fun, problem free life, is expensive, somebody still picks up the tab, and the party has to end sometime.


Which is why more and more people are looking to convert their dollars into gold, silver, diamonds, Bitcoin, etc.


In the event of total collapse, land with resources is better than all the diamonds in Africa.


spot-
Into the Night is also has delusions of comptance
28-09-2019 20:19
IBdaMannProfile picture★★★★★
(5230)
keepit wrote: If you assume the govt is going to default (i don't think so), and you owned treasuries, wouldn't you rather cash those treasuries in now than suffer a default.

This is a moderately complex issue.

If the country is, in fact, going to default, and you cash your T-bills just prior to the default, you will then have (relatively) worthless dollars instead of (relatively) worthless T-bills.

So your logical question is "if I have reason to speculate that the US government is about to default, can't I just cash my T-bills and exchange the dollars for another currency?"

At this point, Into the Night is correct that you would likely be better off just gambling at Vegas. Why? If you have reason to believe the US is going to default, then there is a world of others who know much more than you do who are already taking action (meaning the odds of your gambling are increasingly not in your favor). While the T-bills' value is dropping in value like a rock, the dollar's exchange rate with other currencies will also be in freefall such that if you cash out the T-bills and exchange for another currency, you are guaranteed to take it in the shorts whereas those who hold on to their T-bills and the government does NOT default are the winners when the exchange rate rebounds, i.e. your speculation does not translate into knowledge of the future outcome but your emotion (fear of loss) will certainly motivate you to rush to make very bad decisions based on a very incomplete big picture.

This is how the futures market works and why it's the most adrenaline-filled highest-stakes gambling the planet has to offer. If you'd like a chance at becoming a multi-millionaire before lunch and you don't think twice about risking total bankruptcy before you can finish your coffee, then the futures market might just be for you. Vegas can't compete. This is what you are in for when you decide to speculate on currecy futures (which is what you are describing when speculating about a US default). There is so much that is under the control of other people and institutions and governments that it will make you long for the simplicity of counting cards at the blackjack table.


.


Global Warming: The preferred religion of the scientifically illiterate.

Printing dollars to pay debt doesn't increase the number of dollars. - keepit

When the alt-physics birds sing about "indivisible bodies," we've got pure BS. - VernerHornung

Ah the "Valid Data" myth of ITN/IBD. - tmiddles

Ceist - I couldn't agree with you more. But when money and religion are involved, and there are people who value them above all else, then the lies begin. - trafn

You are completely misunderstanding their use of the word "accumulation"! - Climate Scientist.

The Stefan-Boltzman equation doesn't come up with the correct temperature if greenhouse gases are not considered - Hank

:*sigh* Not the "raw data" crap. - Leafsdude

IB STILL hasn't explained what Planck's Law means. Just more hand waving that it applies to everything and more asserting that the greenhouse effect 'violates' it.- Ceist
28-09-2019 20:28
Into the NightProfile picture★★★★★
(10256)
GasGuzzler wrote:
Into the Night wrote:
HarveyH55 wrote:
The debt exceeded the point where we might have made some progress in paying it down, without seriously cutting back on services, a long time ago. Mostly, we run on credit, and have been squeezing it pretty hard for a long time. Creditors don't want anybody to default, minimum payments, slow payments, or even some effort to make a payment, is better than no payment at all. When the debt goes into default, they have very little chance of getting much, or anything more out of it. Most creditors aren't too upset, if they didn't actually lose investment money, just profit. The problem with a country making slow payments, is that it reduce confidence. It gets harder to borrow money, or get involved any business, where it's doesn't involve cash up front. Other counties are going to be a little reluctant to pay us in advance, since they can't be sure we can deliver, before spending their payments. We also lose preferred interest rates, and are just lucky to get a loan, regardless of terms.

The national debt is probably our biggest crisis, but it gets hidden behind all the other desperate 'needs' to keep spending more than we are taking in. Trump has got one thing right, we have to increase our nation revenue substantially, and cut back on wasteful spending, keep more of our business here in America. Everyday can't be expected to be a party, a celebration. Hardships are a part of living, and can never be completely erased by spending to avoid them. Companies fail, and will continue to fail, no matter how many times you bail them out. Sure, a lot of people will lose jobs, cities will feel the strain, maybe the whole state, in some cases. That bail out money would have been better spent on other business, or a new source of revenue, something else to prove jobs. Some people don't want to do any other type of work, or relocate to find other job opportunities. It was never the government's responsibility to cater to your personal wants and needs, only provide you the freedom to pursue them on your own. A business that fails, just opens an operatunity for someone else to come in and fill the gap. There are some rough times during the transition, either ride it out, and hope for the best, or relocate. A fun, problem free life, is expensive, somebody still picks up the tab, and the party has to end sometime.


Which is why more and more people are looking to convert their dollars into gold, silver, diamonds, Bitcoin, etc.


In the event of total collapse, land with resources is better than all the diamonds in Africa.

True. However, remember that diamonds are also a resource of the land.

Good soil and available water in my opinion is far more valuable than any diamonds.


The Parrot Killer
28-09-2019 20:30
Into the NightProfile picture★★★★★
(10256)
IBdaMann wrote:
keepit wrote: If you assume the govt is going to default (i don't think so), and you owned treasuries, wouldn't you rather cash those treasuries in now than suffer a default.

This is a moderately complex issue.

If the country is, in fact, going to default, and you cash your T-bills just prior to the default, you will then have (relatively) worthless dollars instead of (relatively) worthless T-bills.

So your logical question is "if I have reason to speculate that the US government is about to default, can't I just cash my T-bills and exchange the dollars for another currency?"

At this point, Into the Night is correct that you would likely be better off just gambling at Vegas. Why? If you have reason to believe the US is going to default, then there is a world of others who know much more than you do who are already taking action (meaning the odds of your gambling are increasingly not in your favor). While the T-bills' value is dropping in value like a rock, the dollar's exchange rate with other currencies will also be in freefall such that if you cash out the T-bills and exchange for another currency, you are guaranteed to take it in the shorts whereas those who hold on to their T-bills and the government does NOT default are the winners when the exchange rate rebounds, i.e. your speculation does not translate into knowledge of the future outcome but your emotion (fear of loss) will certainly motivate you to rush to make very bad decisions based on a very incomplete big picture.

This is how the futures market works and why it's the most adrenaline-filled highest-stakes gambling the planet has to offer. If you'd like a chance at becoming a multi-millionaire before lunch and you don't think twice about risking total bankruptcy before you can finish your coffee, then the futures market might just be for you. Vegas can't compete. This is what you are in for when you decide to speculate on currecy futures (which is what you are describing when speculating about a US default). There is so much that is under the control of other people and institutions and governments that it will make you long for the simplicity of counting cards at the blackjack table.


.


Extremely well said!


The Parrot Killer
29-09-2019 18:45
keepit
★★★☆☆
(783)
This is just hypothetical because i don't think default is coming.
But if one did think so, he could cash in his treasuries and buy something valuable before the dollar collapses. Owning that something would be better than owning useless securities.
29-09-2019 19:02
IBdaMannProfile picture★★★★★
(5230)
keepit wrote:
This is just hypothetical because i don't think default is coming.
But if one did think so, he could cash in his treasuries and buy something valuable before the dollar collapses. Owning that something would be better than owning useless securities.

This is not merely hypothetical. This is exactly what happens when an economy is suffering rampant inflation or hyperinflation. The currency is rapidly losing value so people empty their savings and buy things. The moment any money is made, none of it is saved ... goods and services are immediately purchased. This means that prices are constantly skyrocketing before people's eyes and nobody has any cash.

This does very bad things to an economy. It becomes a purely bartering economy. Talk about going back to the stone age. If you want to know what a hypothetical stone age setting with modern things would look like just visit Zimbabwe and Venezuela.

If it ever gets to the point that you need to cash out your T-bills to immediately buy things to protect value, you are too late, you and the economy will already be in a world of hurt and the loss of the value of the T-bills will be the least of your concerns.


... but to answer your question, yes, you could cash out your T-bills and buy something. Of course, you can do that at any time regardless.


.


Global Warming: The preferred religion of the scientifically illiterate.

Printing dollars to pay debt doesn't increase the number of dollars. - keepit

When the alt-physics birds sing about "indivisible bodies," we've got pure BS. - VernerHornung

Ah the "Valid Data" myth of ITN/IBD. - tmiddles

Ceist - I couldn't agree with you more. But when money and religion are involved, and there are people who value them above all else, then the lies begin. - trafn

You are completely misunderstanding their use of the word "accumulation"! - Climate Scientist.

The Stefan-Boltzman equation doesn't come up with the correct temperature if greenhouse gases are not considered - Hank

:*sigh* Not the "raw data" crap. - Leafsdude

IB STILL hasn't explained what Planck's Law means. Just more hand waving that it applies to everything and more asserting that the greenhouse effect 'violates' it.- Ceist
29-09-2019 19:05
keepit
★★★☆☆
(783)
But the currency isn't losing value. The dollar index is high and inflation is low.
The case i presented is purely hypothetical.
29-09-2019 19:16
IBdaMannProfile picture★★★★★
(5230)
keepit wrote: But the currency isn't losing value. The dollar index is high and inflation is low.

... yes, at the moment.

keepit wrote: The case i presented is purely hypothetical.

Yes, and for that scenario to be the case, you omitted other necessary elements like the dollar dropping in value, inflation skyrocketing.

However, I did answer your question in saying that even barring those conditions, yes, you could always cash in the T-bills and buy something of value. The answer is yes you can. I was merely point out that what you were describing is what, in fact, people do when facing rampant inflation and economic collapse.


.


Global Warming: The preferred religion of the scientifically illiterate.

Printing dollars to pay debt doesn't increase the number of dollars. - keepit

When the alt-physics birds sing about "indivisible bodies," we've got pure BS. - VernerHornung

Ah the "Valid Data" myth of ITN/IBD. - tmiddles

Ceist - I couldn't agree with you more. But when money and religion are involved, and there are people who value them above all else, then the lies begin. - trafn

You are completely misunderstanding their use of the word "accumulation"! - Climate Scientist.

The Stefan-Boltzman equation doesn't come up with the correct temperature if greenhouse gases are not considered - Hank

:*sigh* Not the "raw data" crap. - Leafsdude

IB STILL hasn't explained what Planck's Law means. Just more hand waving that it applies to everything and more asserting that the greenhouse effect 'violates' it.- Ceist
29-09-2019 19:18
HarveyH55
★★★★☆
(1513)
Thing about money, or anything that represents wealth, like gold, is the value, in relation to the goods and services available, and needed. Gold isn't very valuable, if essentials are in high demand, like food, fuel, clean water, shelter, parts and materials. You can't eat your gold, nor anyone else. Your vehicle, generator, or any equipment runs on gold. Gold would be pretty much as worthless as paper, if nobody want or needs it, as badly as they need something essential to living. You would still find people willing to take your gold, but probably not give you the value you'd expect.
29-09-2019 19:28
keepit
★★★☆☆
(783)
Gold is pretty inconvenient but some people will value it until the day they die.
There is gold in cellphones. Matter of fact, the concentration of gold in cellphones is greater than the concentration of gold in most gold ore.
29-09-2019 19:56
IBdaMannProfile picture★★★★★
(5230)
keepit wrote: Gold is pretty inconvenient but some people will value it until the day they die. There is gold in cellphones. Matter of fact, the concentration of gold in cellphones is greater than the concentration of gold in most gold ore.

That was something else I was going to mention but forgot ...

In economics there is the concept of "risk" and different people adopt differing levels of risk to manage their expected return. Your hypothetical scenario is a (sub)case-study in "diversification."

We live in a world of fiat currencies (they have no intrinsic value beyond the faith of the markets) which serves as the source of angst to Libertarians. Gold, silver, precious metals, precious stones, etc., i.e. things of intrinsic value, are included in portfolios to reduce risk of loss. As economies grow worse, the value of financial instruments decreases but the value of intrinsic shares increases (for the reasons we discussed). As an economy gets worse, portfolio managers shift more and more assets into those of intrinsic value. In the case of a Venezuela, of course you want everything you own to be of intrinsic value (that will suddenly be worth many times previous value on the now bartering market) while being completely divested of all (now) worthless financial instruments.

Essentially, in your hypothetical scenario, you were demonstrating diversification, specifically the adjusting of your portfolio to account for a potential US default through the divestiture of bonds and the shifting of that investment into [something of intrinsic value].


.


Global Warming: The preferred religion of the scientifically illiterate.

Printing dollars to pay debt doesn't increase the number of dollars. - keepit

When the alt-physics birds sing about "indivisible bodies," we've got pure BS. - VernerHornung

Ah the "Valid Data" myth of ITN/IBD. - tmiddles

Ceist - I couldn't agree with you more. But when money and religion are involved, and there are people who value them above all else, then the lies begin. - trafn

You are completely misunderstanding their use of the word "accumulation"! - Climate Scientist.

The Stefan-Boltzman equation doesn't come up with the correct temperature if greenhouse gases are not considered - Hank

:*sigh* Not the "raw data" crap. - Leafsdude

IB STILL hasn't explained what Planck's Law means. Just more hand waving that it applies to everything and more asserting that the greenhouse effect 'violates' it.- Ceist
29-09-2019 19:59
Into the NightProfile picture★★★★★
(10256)
keepit wrote:
This is just hypothetical because i don't think default is coming.

Not at all. Default is coming. It cannot be stopped now. It can be delayed some, but it IS coming. Only Congress is blame. Each Congress has added their bit to this monster debt, left themselves unfunded and spent it anyway, and just kept the party rolling right along.
keepit wrote:
But if one did think so, he could cash in his treasuries and buy something valuable before the dollar collapses.

Guess what a lot of people are doing?
keepit wrote:
Owning that something would be better than owning useless securities.

Guess what a lot of people are doing?

Buffet has gone into railroads. A commodity that carries other commodities. He's doing well, too.
Trump invests in real estate (so do I). So do a lot of other people.
Others convert some of their cash into gold and silver.
Others convert some of their cash into Bitcoin.
Bezos owns a successful retailing company.

If YOU want to invest in the bond market, go ahead. It's YOUR money and YOUR gamble.

But I suggest you study debtclock.org real closely and learn where all those numbers are coming from first!


The Parrot Killer
29-09-2019 20:05
Into the NightProfile picture★★★★★
(10256)
keepit wrote:
But the currency isn't losing value. The dollar index is high and inflation is low.
The case i presented is purely hypothetical.


It IS losing value. The dollar index is meaningless since that only compares the dollar to other world currencies, which are also losing value.

Compare the dollar against commodities, things people actually use.

Go study debtclock.org. Learn where all those numbers are coming from.


The Parrot Killer
29-09-2019 20:11
Into the NightProfile picture★★★★★
(10256)
HarveyH55 wrote:
Thing about money, or anything that represents wealth, like gold, is the value, in relation to the goods and services available, and needed. Gold isn't very valuable, if essentials are in high demand, like food, fuel, clean water, shelter, parts and materials. You can't eat your gold, nor anyone else. Your vehicle, generator, or any equipment runs on gold. Gold would be pretty much as worthless as paper, if nobody want or needs it, as badly as they need something essential to living. You would still find people willing to take your gold, but probably not give you the value you'd expect.


Kind of half the point.

Yes, people want things. They want to buy things. Food. Shelter. That new car. The supplies to do their job to make money. etc. That's what an economy is in the first place.

Gold is not an economy, it was and still is money.

So why did gold become money in the first place?

* It is easy to carry it.
* It is easy to show the purity of it.
* It is easy to to use it as a medium of exchange between things of value (It can act as a store of value).
* It is easy to weigh and verify it's purity, making it an easy way to act as a unit of account (you can set a price for a commodity with it. X ounces buys X goods).


The Parrot Killer
29-09-2019 20:17
spot
★★★★☆
(1231)
Marxism is a cipher for anyone who disagrees with ITN in this case
29-09-2019 20:30
Into the NightProfile picture★★★★★
(10256)
keepit wrote:
Gold is pretty inconvenient

It is convenient as any form of money. You can physically carry it with you, you can put it in banks, you can conduct electronic transactions between banks (by using clearing houses) in just the same way the dollar is, or you can use it in industry.
keepit wrote:
but some people will value it until the day they die.

A lot of people. Gold is currently at $1496/oz. It WAS at $34/oz in the 60's. If the dollar to gold ratio were to be the same, gold would be worth $2970/oz. Gold is actually cheap right now.

But the dollar is even cheaper!
keepit wrote:
There is gold in cellphones.

Not a lot. If you want to melt down electronics for gold, you will find less than what a fellow panning gold in a mountain stream is going to find in just a day or two.
keepit wrote:
Matter of fact, the concentration of gold in cellphones is greater than the concentration of gold in most gold ore.

Nope. Gold ore is gold. Gold needs no smelting to make it gold. All you need to do is crush the rock and get your gold out of it. Cellphones have less gold in them than a typical piece of gold bearing rock.

The gold in electronics is reserved for very thinly plated contacts on circuit boards, and for the little wires connecting silicon dies to their pins.

The plating is VERY thin. Just a few dozen to a few hundred microns.

It's not worth scrapping for gold from electronics. You will easily spend more than its worth trying. If you want to get your own gold, try your local mountain stream (volcanic areas do better).

You can also buy it of course.


The Parrot Killer
29-09-2019 20:34
HarveyH55
★★★★☆
(1513)
Into the Night wrote:
HarveyH55 wrote:
Thing about money, or anything that represents wealth, like gold, is the value, in relation to the goods and services available, and needed. Gold isn't very valuable, if essentials are in high demand, like food, fuel, clean water, shelter, parts and materials. You can't eat your gold, nor anyone else. Your vehicle, generator, or any equipment runs on gold. Gold would be pretty much as worthless as paper, if nobody want or needs it, as badly as they need something essential to living. You would still find people willing to take your gold, but probably not give you the value you'd expect.


Kind of half the point.

Yes, people want things. They want to buy things. Food. Shelter. That new car. The supplies to do their job to make money. etc. That's what an economy is in the first place.

Gold is not an economy, it was and still is money.

So why did gold become money in the first place?

* It is easy to carry it.
* It is easy to show the purity of it.
* It is easy to to use it as a medium of exchange between things of value (It can act as a store of value).
* It is easy to weigh and verify it's purity, making it an easy way to act as a unit of account (you can set a price for a commodity with it. X ounces buys X goods).


But that's only in a healthy economy. Money doesn't always carry a significant value, when there is a small supply, and a huge demand. Suppose you had enough fresh water to get you and your family by, until the next shipment arrives, or it rains, but little to spare, since you don't know precisely when you can replenish. Would you sell some of your water for gold? Or be more inclined to trade for food? Knowing that any amount of water you sell or trade, means you have to stretch, carefully use what's left, until the supply can be replenished. If you do choose to sell something you really need, it's going to be for a high price. Just like the people bringing in the goods, high demand, pretty much assures they can charge a high price. The gold might get you in front of the line, since it's easier to transport, than trade goods. But some of those trade goods, might fetch a better deal elsewhere.
29-09-2019 20:35
Into the NightProfile picture★★★★★
(10256)
spot wrote:
Marxism is a cipher for anyone who disagrees with ITN in this case


No. Marxism is the philosophies of Karl Marx. Nothing more.

Yes, I disagree with those philosophies. Socialism can only exist by stealing wealth. Capitalism is the only system that can create wealth.


The Parrot Killer
29-09-2019 20:43
Into the NightProfile picture★★★★★
(10256)
HarveyH55 wrote:
Into the Night wrote:
[quote]HarveyH55 wrote:
Thing about money, or anything that represents wealth, like gold, is the value, in relation to the goods and services available, and needed. Gold isn't very valuable, if essentials are in high demand, like food, fuel, clean water, shelter, parts and materials. You can't eat your gold, nor anyone else. Your vehicle, generator, or any equipment runs on gold. Gold would be pretty much as worthless as paper, if nobody want or needs it, as badly as they need something essential to living. You would still find people willing to take your gold, but probably not give you the value you'd expect.


Kind of half the point.

Yes, people want things. They want to buy things. Food. Shelter. That new car. The supplies to do their job to make money. etc. That's what an economy is in the first place.

Gold is not an economy, it was and still is money.

So why did gold become money in the first place?

* It is easy to carry it.
* It is easy to show the purity of it.
* It is easy to to use it as a medium of exchange between things of value (It can act as a store of value).
* It is easy to weigh and verify it's purity, making it an easy way to act as a unit of account (you can set a price for a commodity with it. X ounces buys X goods).


But that's only in a healthy economy.
HarveyH55 wrote:
Money doesn't always carry a significant value, when there is a small supply, and a huge demand.

If there is a small supply of money and a huge demand, it's value goes up.
HarveyH55 wrote:
Suppose you had enough fresh water to get you and your family by, until the next shipment arrives, or it rains, but little to spare, since you don't know precisely when you can replenish.
Would you sell some of your water for gold?

If the water is worth more than the gold, no.
HarveyH55 wrote:
Or be more inclined to trade for food?

Probably not. Food I can obtain one way or the other, and water is more important of a day to day need. One can go without food for quite a long time.
HarveyH55 wrote:
If you do choose to sell something you really need, it's going to be for a high price.

That it is. Now here is where you introduce the concept of money, whether it's gold, dollars, seashells, or whatever. There is a price. That means whatever you are using as money has a unit of account. That price represents a value (in the commodities you are trading in). That means money is a store of value. If you have a price, you have money. There is no price without money.
HarveyH55 wrote:
Just like the people bringing in the goods, high demand, pretty much assures they can charge a high price.

Yup.
HarveyH55 wrote:
The gold might get you in front of the line, since it's easier to transport, than trade goods.

If gold is used as money, it will not only get me to the front of the line, it will get me the goods.
HarveyH55 wrote:
But some of those trade goods, might fetch a better deal elsewhere.

Perhaps. No different than today, eh?

I think you are missing some important details:
* if you have a price, money is involved, no matter what you are using for money.
* money itself is a commodity of sorts, and also acts as a medium of commodity exchange. There is a demand for money. There is a demand for a commodity. Price discovery sets the price between them.
* the power of capitalism to create wealth. People, when faced with shortages of water, will find their own water, even in the desert. When faced with shortages of food, they will find their own food, even in the desert.
^ Examples: Las Vegas, NV and immediately surrounding areas. An entire city located in the middle of the desert. There is plenty of water, both from the nearby Colorado river and the Las Vegas springs (where the city itself currently gets all their water). Rains in any mountains near the city flow toward the city, sometimes even flooding the city! People can get water, even enough to supply all those fancy restaurants and huge casino hotels, and all the people that work in them. It was capitalism that developed all those water resources to usable form. Food is largely trucked in, much of it from all over Nevada (beef, pork, etc). Potatoes from Idaho, wheat from pretty much everywhere, on and on. Don't forget trucking is part of the economy too. So are railroads. They are commodities that move other commodities.

No trucking? People will find a way to move it, one way or the other.

Las Vegas is an example of what can be done to create wealth. All those goods flow into there because of the wealth that Las Vegas has created. What wealth? Entertainment. Improved automotive systems. Plastic containers are manufactured there. Ethel M chocolates are made there. Gold and silver are mined there (yes, it DOES have value!). Gambling equipment is made there. RV's are manufactured there. Explosives are manufactured there. The fuel for the solid rocket boosters on the Space Shuttle was manufactured there. There's even a fish farm there! Software is another growing industry there, especially in instrumentation and control systems, such as lighting and hydraulic controls.

No man is an island. Trade is trade, and part of the capitalist system. If trade occurs, money is involved in some form or you have no prices, just barter.


Now let's take the fall of the dollar. If it collapses, will Las Vegas disappear? Nope. Gambling will still be there, entertainment will still be there, even the water and food will still be there. Why? Because people will simply use something else for money.

Las Vegas currently accepts gold, silver, Bitcoin, or dollars. You can convert most any other currency in the world to one of these.

You can pay for your room at some places directly with silver, if you want. You can even pay for your room directly with Bitcoin at some places. You can pay for more expensive stuff directly with gold, if you want. Of course dollars are accepted everywhere too and are easily converted between the others in Las Vegas.

You can't eat gold, but you can sell it. You can't eat coal, but you can sell it. You can't eat explosives, but you can sell them. You can't eat your car, but you can use it to get something to eat.

An economy is MUCH more than just getting something to eat and something to drink, regardless of what is used for money.


The Parrot Killer
Edited on 29-09-2019 21:22
29-09-2019 20:51
IBdaMannProfile picture★★★★★
(5230)
spot wrote: Marxism is a cipher for anyone who disagrees with ITN in this case

spot! You're gracing us with your presence again!

Clearly, having been away has caused you to need a terminology actualization:

Troll: anyone who disagrees with you.

Marxism: the philosophy enshrined here.


.


Global Warming: The preferred religion of the scientifically illiterate.

Printing dollars to pay debt doesn't increase the number of dollars. - keepit

When the alt-physics birds sing about "indivisible bodies," we've got pure BS. - VernerHornung

Ah the "Valid Data" myth of ITN/IBD. - tmiddles

Ceist - I couldn't agree with you more. But when money and religion are involved, and there are people who value them above all else, then the lies begin. - trafn

You are completely misunderstanding their use of the word "accumulation"! - Climate Scientist.

The Stefan-Boltzman equation doesn't come up with the correct temperature if greenhouse gases are not considered - Hank

:*sigh* Not the "raw data" crap. - Leafsdude

IB STILL hasn't explained what Planck's Law means. Just more hand waving that it applies to everything and more asserting that the greenhouse effect 'violates' it.- Ceist
29-09-2019 21:54
keepit
★★★☆☆
(783)
The dollar, technology, and productivity (economic definition) are all intertwined.
Then there's always event risk and the world's economy isn't run by breakfast table economics. Clear you mind of breakfast table economics and you'll understand the world better.
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