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John Christy on Tropical Cyclones


John Christy on Tropical Cyclones13-11-2013 10:46
kfl
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Dr. John Christy has in his presentation Climate Change Roundtable from 30th May 2013 shown a graph with the number of Tropical Storms and Hurricane originating from Ryan Maue.





This graph is part of his internet presentation with a mixed panel (pro and con AGW). The panel were quizzed on climate change by Rep David McKinley, a Republican congressman from the coal state of West Virginia concist of:

Scott Denning............Colorado State University
Jim Hurrell..................National Center for Atmospheric Research
Joe Casola..................Center for Climate and Energy Solutions
Annie Petsonk............Environmental Defense Fund
Richard Thomas.........West Virginia University
Marc Morano..............Climate Depot
Dennis Avery..............Hudson Institute
Myron Ebell................Competitive Enterprise Institute

There is no guidelines how this graph is going to be interpreted and no warming about different trends in the development of Tropical Storms, Hurricanes and Major Hurricanes.

What does the science says about Tropical Cyclones?
Here is an excerpt from IPCC AR4:

Changes in tropical storm and hurricane frequency and intensity are masked by large natural variability. The El Niño- Southern Oscillation greatly affects the location and activity of tropical storms around the world. Globally, estimates of the potential destructiveness of hurricanes show a substantial upward trend since the mid-1970s, with a trend towards longer storm duration and greater storm intensity, and the activity is strongly correlated with tropical sea surface temperature. These relationships have been reinforced by findings of a large increase in numbers and proportion of strong hurricanes globally since 1970 even as total numbers of cyclones and cyclone days decreased slightly in most basins. Specifically, the number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes increased by about 75% since 1970. The largest increases were in the North Pacific, Indian and Southwest Pacific Oceans. However, numbers of hurricanes in the North Atlantic have also been above normal in 9 of the last 11 years, culminating in the record-breaking 2005 season.


In order to verify this, I have used data from Ryan Maue. Below is a graph showing the development of Tropical Storms, Hurricanes and Major Hurricanes in world wide during the years 1970-2012.



Using a generalized linear model trend lines have been estimated and the expected number been calculated.

During the years 1970-2012:

The expected number of Tropical Storms have significantly decreased from 92.4 to 81.0 corresponding to a reduction of 12%

The expected number of Hurricanes have decreased from 49.6 to 44.7, but not significantly.

The expected number of Major Hurricanes have increased from 18.6 to 25.6 corresponding to 38%.


Summary:
The development of Tropical Cyclone is in line with expectations by IPCC. This means fewer and worse Tropical Cyclones.

Christy has not giving the full picture about Tropical Cyclone.

Christy has all resources to find and read IPCC reports on the development of Tropical Cyclones. It surprises me that he does not appear to give the complete picture on Tropical Cyclones. This is disappointing: He owes us a better effort.

I would like to thank Christy for the discussion of the Tropical Cyclones hoping that in future he will give a more balanced presentation of Tropical Cyclones.
Edited on 13-11-2013 10:48
RE: Super Typhoon...20-11-2013 12:33
kfl
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Link to Skeptical Science post:

Will Super Typhoon Haiyan becomes norm ?


The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones
Edited on 20-11-2013 12:34
Join the debate John Christy on Tropical Cyclones:

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