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Is The Gulf Stream slowing down?


Is The Gulf Stream slowing down?09-10-2015 00:11
Madison
☆☆☆☆☆
(22)
I would really like to know the forum's view on this one: http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/09/24/why-some-scientists-are-worried-about-a-cold-blob-in-the-north-atlantic-ocean/

Should be interesting to follow the temperatures in the North Atlantic in the coming months. Is there a place with all the monthly NOAA maps?
09-10-2015 00:22
trafnProfile picture★★★☆☆
(779)
Hi Madison,

Yes, I've been following this issue for the past few weeks, and the issue of ice sheet melting for the past few years. Given how everything interacts, it'd be unlikely that there will be no influence on the Gulf Stream from such a significant event as the North Atlantic Blob, though how great is yet to be seen.

As for a NOAA map site, here's an interesting one for global water surface temperatures:

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/contour/

Also, here's one of my favorites for monitoring wind patterns (it's crazily interactive):

[img]http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-54.95,31.31,282[/img]

Click on "Earth" in the lower left hand corner for all the options.
09-10-2015 10:45
climate scientist
★★☆☆☆
(257)
trafn - nice wind pattern site!

Madison

I think it is of no doubt that the greenland ice-sheet is losing a lot of mass, and that this is very likely the cause of the cold blob. I guess one thing that I would be a bit sceptical about is rushing to conclusions, when this feature is relatively new. If this cold blob feature is indeed a sign that the AMOC is weakening, then I would expect it to continue into the long term, and to see similar signals in other data sets.

You might be interested to look at the RAPID project website:

http://www.rapid.ac.uk/rapidmoc/overview.php

RAPID have been monitoring the AMOC since about 2004. At the moment, it is hard to see any relevant trends in the plots on the website, but they have only plotted up to the beginning of 2014. I think that the data are all available, if you would like to do your own plots/analyses.
09-10-2015 16:06
IBdaMann
★★★★★
(4328)
climate scientist wrote:Madison

I think it is of no doubt that the greenland ice-sheet is losing a lot of mass,...

That's what profound faith will do to you, i.e. cause you to cease doubting, and questioning, and even thinking.

There seems to be little doubt that the Greenland Ice Sheet is growing.
http://www.longrangeweather.com/ArticleArchives/GreenlandIceSheet.htm

climate scientist wrote: ...and that this is very likely the cause of the cold blob.

Now that's one bold, falsifiable assertion, let me tell you. It sounds like you're firmly based on plenty of "The Science." Well done.

climate scientist wrote: I guess one thing that I would be a bit sceptical about is rushing to conclusions, ...

You don't say.


Global Warming: The preferred religion of the scientifically illiterate.

Ceist - I couldn't agree with you more. But when money and religion are involved, and there are people who value them above all else, then the lies begin. - trafn

You are completely misunderstanding their use of the word "accumulation"! - Climate Scientist.

The Stefan-Boltzman equation doesn't come up with the correct temperature if greenhouse gases are not considered - Hank

:*sigh* Not the "raw data" crap. - Leafsdude

IB STILL hasn't explained what Planck's Law means. Just more hand waving that it applies to everything and more asserting that the greenhouse effect 'violates' it.- Ceist
09-10-2015 16:28
climate scientist
★★☆☆☆
(257)
Oh my goodness! You actually posted a link to something! Wasn't that hard was it??

The problem is that you didn't actually read what you posted, and it certainly does not constitute science.

Chris Harris is merely pointing out that in Greenland and Antarctica, it snows, and stuff gets buried. I think we already knew this.

If you look up Cliff Harris and Randy Mann, you will find that neither are trained in climatology or meteorology, even though they claim to be.

We know that the Greenland ice sheet has been losing mass over the past few decades (see Fig 3.3 in particular): http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/greenland_ice_sheet.html.

The data in Figure 3.3 come from the GRACE satellite: http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/Grace/#.Vhe_6Stc1ZQ
RE: SLR acceleration?09-10-2015 17:48
EarthlingProfile picture★☆☆☆☆
(107)
climate scientist wrote:We know that the Greenland ice sheet has been losing mass over the past few decades ...
With all these glaciers and ice sheets losing mass, wouldn't an acceleration of sea level rise be expected?


"We have a vested interest in creating panic, because then money will flow to climate science." John Christy
09-10-2015 18:02
climate scientist
★★☆☆☆
(257)
With all these glaciers and ice sheets losing mass, wouldn't an acceleration of sea level rise be expected?


Not necessarily. Sea level rise is a very complicated thing. Firstly, the data on the Greenland ice sheet show that the rate of loss of mass is fairly linear. So I wouldn't therefore expect an acceleration in the rate of sea level rise, but perhaps a linear increase. However, this would be if ice sheet melt was the only thing that contributed to sea level rise, which is not true. There are several other important factors to consider:

1. As global ocean temperatures increase, sea level will rise, owing to the fact that water expands as it warms.

2. As ice sheets melt, the land surface underneath undergoes post glacial/continental rebound.

3. Many built-up areas have experienced anthropogenic-induced subsidence, caused by the excessive removal of ground water reserves, which also has an effect on sea level rise.

As it so happens, the IPCC states: "There is strong evidence that global sea level gradually rose in the 20th century and is currently rising at an increased rate, after a period of little change between AD 0 and AD 1900. Sea level is projected to rise at an even greater rate in this century".

So it looks as though the data show that sea level rise is accelerating, and may continue to do so in the future.
11-10-2015 00:38
Madison
☆☆☆☆☆
(22)
Thanks for your replies and links!

This map which NOAA publishes each month:

Is there a place where I can see all these monthly maps side by side, or even better an animation or interactive tool where you can scroll through the months?
21-10-2015 21:51
branner
AdministratorProfile picture☆☆☆☆☆
(33)
Interesting discussion!

The Global September Analysis from NOAA just came in, with the cold "blob" south of Iceland still there, just like in the previous months:


I don't know if there is one page with all the maps, but they can easily be saved and compared by changing the last number in the file name (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/map-percentile-mntp/201509.gif).

If you are interested, there is a similar thread about the Gulf Stream/the cold blob on the Danish version of Climate-Debate.com: http://www.klimadebat.dk/forum/golfstroemmen-svaekkes-d12-e2853.php. Maybe worth trying Google Translate.

By the way, I have removed a few off topic posts in this thread.
21-10-2015 22:23
Into the Night
★★★★★
(8697)
branner wrote:
Interesting discussion!

The Global September Analysis from NOAA just came in, with the cold "blob" south of Iceland still there, just like in the previous months:

I don't know if there is one page with all the maps, but they can easily be saved and compared by changing the last number in the file name (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/map-percentile-mntp/201509.gif).

If you are interested, there is a similar thread about the Gulf Stream/the cold blob on the Danish version of Climate-Debate.com: http://www.klimadebat.dk/forum/golfstroemmen-svaekkes-d12-e2853.php. Maybe worth trying Google Translate.

By the way, I have removed a few off topic posts in this thread.


Sorry, fudged data is no data. Interpolated data is manufactured data. These images are generated from random numbers.
Edited on 21-10-2015 22:23
21-10-2015 23:31
IBdaMann
★★★★★
(4328)
climate scientist wrote:
With all these glaciers and ice sheets losing mass, wouldn't an acceleration of sea level rise be expected?


Not necessarily. Sea level rise is a very complicated thing..

The correct answer is yes, we should see dramatic sea level rise if the all the ice mentioned were melting. Volume is a straightforward concept and yes, it falsifies the whole Global Warming ocean rise hype.

Global Warming really is a silly religion.


Global Warming: The preferred religion of the scientifically illiterate.

Ceist - I couldn't agree with you more. But when money and religion are involved, and there are people who value them above all else, then the lies begin. - trafn

You are completely misunderstanding their use of the word "accumulation"! - Climate Scientist.

The Stefan-Boltzman equation doesn't come up with the correct temperature if greenhouse gases are not considered - Hank

:*sigh* Not the "raw data" crap. - Leafsdude

IB STILL hasn't explained what Planck's Law means. Just more hand waving that it applies to everything and more asserting that the greenhouse effect 'violates' it.- Ceist
21-10-2015 23:57
trafnProfile picture★★★☆☆
(779)
@Into the Night - Sorry, fudged statements are not statements. Interpolated statements are manufactured statements. Your statements are generated from random thoughts.


The 2015 M2C2 (Global 9/11) Denialist Troll Awards

1st Place - Jep Branner - Our Stupid Administrator!
2nd Place - IBdaMann - Science IS cherry picking!
3rd Place - Into the Night - Mr. Nonsense numbers!
4th Place - Tim the plumber - The Drivel Queen!
22-10-2015 00:02
trafnProfile picture★★★☆☆
(779)
@IBdasMarxistischeMenschlicheMinen - we are only seeing the beginning of the melt off so, no, we would not expect to see dramatic sea level rise, yet. Soon, but not yet.

So I see you're still running away from putting yourself under your own microscope. I guess it's not much fun having to put your money where your mouth is. Perhaps until you are ready to play by your own rules, you might be so kind as to put your money with your mouth is, as silence from your circuitous ramblings would be heavenly.


The 2015 M2C2 (Global 9/11) Denialist Troll Awards

1st Place - Jep Branner - Our Stupid Administrator!
2nd Place - IBdaMann - Science IS cherry picking!
3rd Place - Into the Night - Mr. Nonsense numbers!
4th Place - Tim the plumber - The Drivel Queen!

Edited on 22-10-2015 00:03
22-10-2015 00:26
trafnProfile picture★★★☆☆
(779)
@branner - nice post and please, clean away!


The 2015 M2C2 (Global 9/11) Denialist Troll Awards

1st Place - Jep Branner - Our Stupid Administrator!
2nd Place - IBdaMann - Science IS cherry picking!
3rd Place - Into the Night - Mr. Nonsense numbers!
4th Place - Tim the plumber - The Drivel Queen!
22-10-2015 01:57
IBdaMann
★★★★★
(4328)
trafn wrote: @IBdasMarxistischeMenschlicheMinen
If I were a mindless Marxist robot of the Global Warming cause, it would be an honor to march by your side.

[quote]trafn wrote: - we are only seeing the beginning of the melt off so, no, we would not expect to see dramatic sea level rise, yet.

I don't hear/see you tempering the "ice loss" claims of the other warmazombies. One can only presume that you agree with them. If their claims were true, the claims you implicitly support, then yes, we would have seen non-sinking coastline swallowed up already.

Oh, that means that something is false is all that, either their claims or your conclusion. I'll let you determine what that is. Please do tell.

You don't get to have it both ways. Volume is volume. Ice melt is ice melt. Perhaps you think like Climate Fraud and believe it's somehow more complicated.

trafn copied some required, standard verbiage from the Marxist talking points manual:
"So I see you're still running away from putting yourself under your own microscope. I guess it's not much fun having to put your money where your mouth is. Perhaps until you are ready to play by your own rules, you might be so kind as to put your money with your mouth is, as silence from your circuitous ramblings would be heavenly".


What does any of it mean? Is it a code? ...a puzzle? ...a secret message? Whatever it is, there is definitely wordplay involved.


Global Warming: The preferred religion of the scientifically illiterate.

Ceist - I couldn't agree with you more. But when money and religion are involved, and there are people who value them above all else, then the lies begin. - trafn

You are completely misunderstanding their use of the word "accumulation"! - Climate Scientist.

The Stefan-Boltzman equation doesn't come up with the correct temperature if greenhouse gases are not considered - Hank

:*sigh* Not the "raw data" crap. - Leafsdude

IB STILL hasn't explained what Planck's Law means. Just more hand waving that it applies to everything and more asserting that the greenhouse effect 'violates' it.- Ceist
22-10-2015 02:47
trafnProfile picture★★★☆☆
(779)
@climate scientist, Ceist and Tototo only - so, if the Gulf Stream is slowing, what new currents do you think might appear to take its place?


The 2015 M2C2 (Global 9/11) Denialist Troll Awards

1st Place - Jep Branner - Our Stupid Administrator!
2nd Place - IBdaMann - Science IS cherry picking!
3rd Place - Into the Night - Mr. Nonsense numbers!
4th Place - Tim the plumber - The Drivel Queen!

Edited on 22-10-2015 03:10
22-10-2015 03:10
IBdaMann
★★★★★
(4328)
@ Everyone Only
Does anyone really believe the gulf steam is slowing?

If so, why?


Global Warming: The preferred religion of the scientifically illiterate.

Ceist - I couldn't agree with you more. But when money and religion are involved, and there are people who value them above all else, then the lies begin. - trafn

You are completely misunderstanding their use of the word "accumulation"! - Climate Scientist.

The Stefan-Boltzman equation doesn't come up with the correct temperature if greenhouse gases are not considered - Hank

:*sigh* Not the "raw data" crap. - Leafsdude

IB STILL hasn't explained what Planck's Law means. Just more hand waving that it applies to everything and more asserting that the greenhouse effect 'violates' it.- Ceist
22-10-2015 20:47
Into the Night
★★★★★
(8697)
trafn wrote:
@Into the Night - Sorry, fudged statements are not statements. Interpolated statements are manufactured statements. Your statements are generated from random thoughts.


?
22-10-2015 23:33
Acidohm
☆☆☆☆☆
(3)
Madison wrote:
Thanks for your replies and links!

This map which NOAA publishes each month:

Is there a place where I can see all these monthly maps side by side, or even better an animation or interactive tool where you can scroll through the months?



As it happens....a pet project of mine...using Nullschool images (with permission) i run a daily time series from August last year, update monthly.

https://youtu.be/S3D69cIMOx4
Edited on 22-10-2015 23:36
22-10-2015 23:38
Acidohm
☆☆☆☆☆
(3)
IBdaMann wrote:
@ Everyone Only
Does anyone really believe the gulf steam is slowing?

If so, why?



It is not the gulf stream, but the AMOC that is slowing. I have had some communication with the RAPID team at Southampton Uni, this is the current positon. We do not know what it will do in the future...
23-10-2015 00:21
trafnProfile picture★★★☆☆
(779)
@all constructive contributors:

- Acidohm: Hi and welcome to Climate-debate.com. That was a fascinating video link you posted. Do you think these recent changes in AMOC are just part of a cycle like El nino and La nina, or do you think these are the beginning of new patterns of energy exchange in the Atlantic waters?

By the way, you might want to take a look at the following thread:

Another better way to post on Climate-debate.com

Recently there have been a lot of off topic posts on this website, and this thread describes one way of addressing this issue.


The 2015 M2C2 (Global 9/11) Denialist Troll Awards

1st Place - Jep Branner - Our Stupid Administrator!
2nd Place - IBdaMann - Science IS cherry picking!
3rd Place - Into the Night - Mr. Nonsense numbers!
4th Place - Tim the plumber - The Drivel Queen!

Edited on 23-10-2015 00:43
23-10-2015 00:46
IBdaMann
★★★★★
(4328)
Acidohm wrote:
It is not the gulf stream, but the AMOC that is slowing.

Well, whether it is or isn't, you certainly believe it is slowing, yes?

The question before you is "Why do you believe this?" Were you simply told to believe this, and you put faith in the people who told you this? It's OK if that's the case. Christians put faith in their clergy who tells them what to believe. That's how it works. I get it.


Global Warming: The preferred religion of the scientifically illiterate.

Ceist - I couldn't agree with you more. But when money and religion are involved, and there are people who value them above all else, then the lies begin. - trafn

You are completely misunderstanding their use of the word "accumulation"! - Climate Scientist.

The Stefan-Boltzman equation doesn't come up with the correct temperature if greenhouse gases are not considered - Hank

:*sigh* Not the "raw data" crap. - Leafsdude

IB STILL hasn't explained what Planck's Law means. Just more hand waving that it applies to everything and more asserting that the greenhouse effect 'violates' it.- Ceist
23-10-2015 00:50
Acidohm
☆☆☆☆☆
(3)
Nothing to do with 'belife'.....its something called data....

Tbh I've been here for 2 hours....I'm not sure I'll be coming back, not impressed with your 'no 1' poster etc....this is looking a bit kooky.....bye bye
23-10-2015 00:58
trafnProfile picture★★★☆☆
(779)
@all constructive contributors:

- Acidohm: you are correct. It has become kooky here. I can understand you're disinterest in participating in this website, given its current condition, but I do hope you'll reconsider and continue to make positive contributions like you did with your original post here.

This website has great potential. It will, however, take a concerted effort by many people to realize that potential.
Edited on 23-10-2015 01:09
23-10-2015 01:02
IBdaMann
★★★★★
(4328)
Acidohm wrote:Nothing to do with 'belife'.....its something called data....

Well, that's great! Would you post this confirmational empirical data in the Data Mine thread? We'd all get great benefit out of it.


Acidohm wrote:Tbh I've been here for 2 hours....I'm not sure I'll be coming back, not impressed with your 'no 1' poster etc....this is looking a bit kooky.....bye bye

Wait! I assure you trafn is only the #1 poster in his own mind. Warmazombies confuse quantity of obfuscation with science.

You don't have to leave on his account.


Global Warming: The preferred religion of the scientifically illiterate.

Ceist - I couldn't agree with you more. But when money and religion are involved, and there are people who value them above all else, then the lies begin. - trafn

You are completely misunderstanding their use of the word "accumulation"! - Climate Scientist.

The Stefan-Boltzman equation doesn't come up with the correct temperature if greenhouse gases are not considered - Hank

:*sigh* Not the "raw data" crap. - Leafsdude

IB STILL hasn't explained what Planck's Law means. Just more hand waving that it applies to everything and more asserting that the greenhouse effect 'violates' it.- Ceist




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