|Hockey Stick Climate Sensitivity16-04-2017 21:00
|Hi there - My google searches cannot seem to find any information about Mann's MBH99 hockey stick graph in relation to climate sensitivity equation. More specifically, I would like to know where the climate sensitivity equation fits into the making of the hockey stick graph - did Mann use this equation when reconstruction paleoclimate temperatures using proxy data i.e. tree rings/ice cores/lake sediments/corals.
Mann Bradley and Hughes 1998 Nature paper is here:http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/articles/mbh98.pdf
Nothing about climate sensitivity factor or constant or equation used in the paper that I see. It is supposed to be a reconstruction of climate/temperature as it actually occurred, don't need climate sensitivity equation/factor for that.
still learning wrote:student33 wrote:
Would you care to elaborate as to why the climate sensitivity equation is not needed in reconstructing paleoclimate temperatures?
Would it be to do with the fact that this equation is only used when projecting temperature changes in the future, not the past?
Not sure if the word paleoclimate really applies to a reconstruction/graph that goes back six centuries.
Anyway, they didn't use climate sensitivity or CO2 to reconstruct temperatures back to 1400. Look at the paper linked to earlier. They used data gathered by previous workers, data from actual temperature measurements, tree-ring/dendroclimatic data, O18 ice core data, other stuff too. Ended up refining correlations between temperature and dust and also solar activity as well as CO2. Also ended up with a graph that other folks later dubbed a "hockey stick."
Yes, using a climate sensitivity factor in the appropriate equation is one way of projecting future temperature changes.
This is a reference: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/research/ONLINE-PREPRINTS/Millennium/mbh99.pdf
Much of his data was faulty or misinterpreted etc. The model produced by Mann never occurred. What's more apparently emails were found between Mann's collaborators showing that when the models weren't met they doctored information in order to make it appear that the climate was indeed following the predictions.
Also it appears that Mann had nothing whatsoever to do with these shenanigans and that his paper was simply inaccurate due to misinterpretations of available data.
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