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confirmation bias


confirmation bias14-12-2020 07:12
keepit
★★★★★
(2218)
It is a proven characteristic of human nature.
For example, suppose a person has 10 clues to figure an issue. Maybe the clues aren't totally clear as, for example, in an airplane taking off in gale. The person will naturally pick the clues that confirm the person's belief system and pay less attention to the clues that don't confirm the person's belief system. Obviously this can lead to errors. It is a known principle of cockpit management and airplane crashes have resulted.
The same principle applies to politics and presidential elections.
Edited on 14-12-2020 07:13
14-12-2020 08:54
Xadoman
★★★☆☆
(424)
keepit wrote:
It is a proven characteristic of human nature.
For example, suppose a person has 10 clues to figure an issue. Maybe the clues aren't totally clear as, for example, in an airplane taking off in gale. The person will naturally pick the clues that confirm the person's belief system and pay less attention to the clues that don't confirm the person's belief system. Obviously this can lead to errors. It is a known principle of cockpit management and airplane crashes have resulted.
The same principle applies to politics and presidential elections.


Yep, even a video tape of voting fraud is not enough a clue to expose the fraud to the believers. They want to belive that everything is ok and keep their heads in the sand forever. I have read that it is almost impossible to change someone s inner belief and view into some matter and that is why I always analyze myself from that point of view to not to step into the same trap as most have.
14-12-2020 16:43
gfm7175Profile picture★★★★★
(2029)
Xadoman wrote:
keepit wrote:
It is a proven characteristic of human nature.
For example, suppose a person has 10 clues to figure an issue. Maybe the clues aren't totally clear as, for example, in an airplane taking off in gale. The person will naturally pick the clues that confirm the person's belief system and pay less attention to the clues that don't confirm the person's belief system. Obviously this can lead to errors. It is a known principle of cockpit management and airplane crashes have resulted.
The same principle applies to politics and presidential elections.


Yep, even a video tape of voting fraud is not enough a clue to expose the fraud to the believers. They want to belive that everything is ok and keep their heads in the sand forever. I have read that it is almost impossible to change someone s inner belief and view into some matter and that is why I always analyze myself from that point of view to not to step into the same trap as most have.

Well, my cousin (earlier this year) caught a younger family member on video thieving money from our grandma, but both the younger family member (and his father) denied it, so I can definitely see people outright denying video tape evidence of election fraud.
14-12-2020 22:59
Into the NightProfile picture★★★★★
(15459)
keepit wrote:
It is a proven characteristic of human nature.
For example, suppose a person has 10 clues to figure an issue. Maybe the clues aren't totally clear as, for example, in an airplane taking off in gale.

An airplane taking off in a gale is not a clue. It is a skill.
keepit wrote:
The person will naturally pick the clues that confirm the person's belief system and pay less attention to the clues that don't confirm the person's belief system. Obviously this can lead to errors.

Nope. Has nothing to do with it. Taking off in a gale is a skill. It's also a basic skill.
keepit wrote:
It is a known principle of cockpit management and airplane crashes have resulted.

No airplane crash has resulted due to confirmation bias. The instruments are there. They tell you what they tell you (when they work). There are backups to detect of they don't work. Judgement calls do occur, and the captains judgement call prevails. He is the captain. If he calls wrong, the the captain and only the captain is responsible.
keepit wrote:
The same principle applies to politics and presidential elections.

The evidence exists. It is not a judgement call. You just want to wish it away. You can't.


The Parrot Killer

Debunked in my sig. - tmiddles

Google keeps track of paranoid talk and i'm not on their list. I've been evaluated and certified. - keepit

nuclear powered ships do not require nuclear fuel. - Swan
14-12-2020 23:01
Into the NightProfile picture★★★★★
(15459)
gfm7175 wrote:
Xadoman wrote:
keepit wrote:
It is a proven characteristic of human nature.
For example, suppose a person has 10 clues to figure an issue. Maybe the clues aren't totally clear as, for example, in an airplane taking off in gale. The person will naturally pick the clues that confirm the person's belief system and pay less attention to the clues that don't confirm the person's belief system. Obviously this can lead to errors. It is a known principle of cockpit management and airplane crashes have resulted.
The same principle applies to politics and presidential elections.


Yep, even a video tape of voting fraud is not enough a clue to expose the fraud to the believers. They want to belive that everything is ok and keep their heads in the sand forever. I have read that it is almost impossible to change someone s inner belief and view into some matter and that is why I always analyze myself from that point of view to not to step into the same trap as most have.

Well, my cousin (earlier this year) caught a younger family member on video thieving money from our grandma, but both the younger family member (and his father) denied it, so I can definitely see people outright denying video tape evidence of election fraud.


Criminals usually deny what they've done. So do liars. They are simply trying to escape their fate...even by lying in the face of such convincing evidence.


The Parrot Killer

Debunked in my sig. - tmiddles

Google keeps track of paranoid talk and i'm not on their list. I've been evaluated and certified. - keepit

nuclear powered ships do not require nuclear fuel. - Swan
15-12-2020 02:57
gfm7175Profile picture★★★★★
(2029)
Into the Night wrote:
gfm7175 wrote:
Xadoman wrote:
keepit wrote:
It is a proven characteristic of human nature.
For example, suppose a person has 10 clues to figure an issue. Maybe the clues aren't totally clear as, for example, in an airplane taking off in gale. The person will naturally pick the clues that confirm the person's belief system and pay less attention to the clues that don't confirm the person's belief system. Obviously this can lead to errors. It is a known principle of cockpit management and airplane crashes have resulted.
The same principle applies to politics and presidential elections.


Yep, even a video tape of voting fraud is not enough a clue to expose the fraud to the believers. They want to belive that everything is ok and keep their heads in the sand forever. I have read that it is almost impossible to change someone s inner belief and view into some matter and that is why I always analyze myself from that point of view to not to step into the same trap as most have.

Well, my cousin (earlier this year) caught a younger family member on video thieving money from our grandma, but both the younger family member (and his father) denied it, so I can definitely see people outright denying video tape evidence of election fraud.


Criminals usually deny what they've done. So do liars. They are simply trying to escape their fate...even by lying in the face of such convincing evidence.

Bingo.
15-12-2020 07:24
tmiddlesProfile picture★★★★★
(3728)
Xadoman wrote:...a video tape of voting fraud ...
Where? Why do you keep talking about this and not sharing it?

Into the Night wrote:
Criminals usually deny what they've done. So do liars. They are simply trying to escape their fate...even by lying in the face of such convincing evidence.
Oh no!!! That's terrible ITN. What can we do?
Hey I know: We'll have a court system where impartial judges will decide if there is enough evidence to convict.

keepit wrote:...The person will naturally pick the clues that confirm the person's belief system...
This is an excellent point.

The internet will indulge almost any weird idea with a wealth of confirmation. If someone is happy to have their ideas confirmed and will look the other way at contractions, they can believe anything and feel validated in doing it.

Most TRUMP supporters refuse to believe that he has borrowed over 1 billion dollars from Russian Oligarchs, making him beholden to Putin. They just turn a blind eye.
15-12-2020 09:20
Into the NightProfile picture★★★★★
(15459)
tmiddles wrote:
Xadoman wrote:...a video tape of voting fraud ...
Where? Why do you keep talking about this and not sharing it?

RQAA
tmiddles wrote:
Into the Night wrote:
Criminals usually deny what they've done. So do liars. They are simply trying to escape their fate...even by lying in the face of such convincing evidence.
Oh no!!! That's terrible ITN. What can we do?
Hey I know: We'll have a court system where impartial judges will decide if there is enough evidence to convict.

A judge doesn't get to decide. A jury does.
tmiddles wrote:
keepit wrote:...The person will naturally pick the clues that confirm the person's belief system...
This is an excellent point.

The internet will indulge almost any weird idea with a wealth of confirmation. If someone is happy to have their ideas confirmed and will look the other way at contractions, they can believe anything and feel validated in doing it.

Most TRUMP supporters refuse to believe that he has borrowed over 1 billion dollars from Russian Oligarchs, making him beholden to Putin.

They just turn a blind eye.

Trump has not borrowed money from the Russian government.


The Parrot Killer

Debunked in my sig. - tmiddles

Google keeps track of paranoid talk and i'm not on their list. I've been evaluated and certified. - keepit

nuclear powered ships do not require nuclear fuel. - Swan
15-12-2020 09:54
tmiddlesProfile picture★★★★★
(3728)
Into the Night wrote:
Trump has not borrowed money from the Russian government.
They already have insurmountable evidence.
15-12-2020 11:10
duncan61
★★★★☆
(1104)
Can we have the Russians on our side against China
15-12-2020 20:07
Into the NightProfile picture★★★★★
(15459)
tmiddles wrote:
Into the Night wrote:
Trump has not borrowed money from the Russian government.
They already have insurmountable evidence.

Who are 'they'? What is this evidence?


The Parrot Killer

Debunked in my sig. - tmiddles

Google keeps track of paranoid talk and i'm not on their list. I've been evaluated and certified. - keepit

nuclear powered ships do not require nuclear fuel. - Swan
15-12-2020 22:35
tmiddlesProfile picture★★★★★
(3728)
Into the Night wrote:
tmiddles wrote:
Into the Night wrote:
Trump has not borrowed money from the Russian government.
They already have insurmountable evidence.

Who are 'they'? What is this evidence?
The evidence is overwhelming ITN. OVERWHELMING
15-12-2020 23:15
Into the NightProfile picture★★★★★
(15459)
tmiddles wrote:
Into the Night wrote:
tmiddles wrote:
Into the Night wrote:
Trump has not borrowed money from the Russian government.
They already have insurmountable evidence.

Who are 'they'? What is this evidence?
The evidence is overwhelming ITN. OVERWHELMING

Evasion. Answer the question. While you're at it, answer the other questions put to you.


The Parrot Killer

Debunked in my sig. - tmiddles

Google keeps track of paranoid talk and i'm not on their list. I've been evaluated and certified. - keepit

nuclear powered ships do not require nuclear fuel. - Swan
16-12-2020 00:40
duncan61
★★★★☆
(1104)
CLIMATE is the long term weather over a particular region.
16-12-2020 05:10
tmiddlesProfile picture★★★★★
(3728)
Into the Night wrote:...the...While you're...other questions put to you.

Into the Night wrote:
RQAA


insurmountable

direct

pending in the supreme court now
16-12-2020 05:28
IBdaMannProfile picture★★★★★
(9034)
duncan61 wrote: CLIMATE is the long term weather over a particular region.

Gibberish. There is no such thing as long term weather. The weather is constantly changing everywhere.

Don't let other people do your thinking for you.

A climate (there are billions on planet earth) is a subjective human characterization of some local conditions, bounded by some time frame. As such, there is no data involved.

Note that a climate must be bounded by a time frame, not open-ended or "long term." For example, the summer climate of Phoenix, AZ (bounded by the "summer" time frame) is "very hot and dry" and differs from the Phoenix winter climate which is "warm and dry." Another example, the political climate of Washington, D.C. prior to elections is extremely tense, distrustful and ill-humored, differing from the political climate of Washington DC following elections.

In summary, a climate is 1) a subjective characterization of local conditions, 2) does not involve any data, and 3) is bounded by a time frame.


So, the question for you is "What is the Global Climate?"

Answer: It's a trick question; it's a contradiction in terms. There is no such thing as a global climate.
1) There are no such things as global local conditions
2) There is no such thing as a subjective characterization of global conditions
3) It is open-ended, i.e. it is not bounded by any time frame

If anyone ever says "climate" without the article "a", e.g. "the climate" or just "Climate" then the question that must be answered before one can proceed any further is "Which climate? There are billions on planet earth."

Don't be afraid to come to me with the hard stuff.

.


A Spaghetti strainer with the faucet running, retains water- tmiddles

Clouds don't trap heat. Clouds block cold. - Spongy Iris

Printing dollars to pay debt doesn't increase the number of dollars. - keepit

If Venus were a black body it would have a much much lower temperature than what we found there.- tmiddles

Ah the "Valid Data" myth of ITN/IBD. - tmiddles

Ceist - I couldn't agree with you more. But when money and religion are involved, and there are people who value them above all else, then the lies begin. - trafn

You are completely misunderstanding their use of the word "accumulation"! - Climate Scientist.

The Stefan-Boltzman equation doesn't come up with the correct temperature if greenhouse gases are not considered - Hank

:*sigh* Not the "raw data" crap. - Leafsdude

IB STILL hasn't explained what Planck's Law means. Just more hand waving that it applies to everything and more asserting that the greenhouse effect 'violates' it.- Ceist
16-12-2020 09:39
tmiddlesProfile picture★★★★★
(3728)
IBdaMann wrote:
duncan61 wrote: CLIMATE is the long term weather over a particular region.

Gibberish. .
Ha ha

Wow its like IBD is a wind up toy.

If Anti-Dictionary Man! got a toy that is.

"Good tests kill flawed theories; we remain alive to guess again." - Karl Popper
ITN/IBD Fraud exposed:  The 2nd LTD add on claiming radiance from cooler bodies can't be absorbed Max Planck debunks, they can't explain:net-thermal-radiation-you-in-a-room-as-a-reference & Proof: no data is valid for IBD or ITN
Edited on 16-12-2020 09:40
16-12-2020 11:07
keepit
★★★★★
(2218)
The weather channel shows air disasters most every day. They are reruns.
Anyhow, they showed one the other day that demonstrated "confirmation bias".
An airliner was attempting to take off in severe weather conditions at night.
3 pilots were in the cockpit and each one of them interpreted the visual clues as to where they were on the taxiway and tried to take off on a runway that was being repaired and had construction equipment on it.
At somewhere around100 knots they ran into the equipment and the plane broke apart with approx 80 people losing their lives.
16-12-2020 11:18
Into the NightProfile picture★★★★★
(15459)
duncan61 wrote:
CLIMATE is the long term weather over a particular region.


Okay. But that has no quantity. The word is subjective. What's changing? What does 'long term' actually mean?


The Parrot Killer

Debunked in my sig. - tmiddles

Google keeps track of paranoid talk and i'm not on their list. I've been evaluated and certified. - keepit

nuclear powered ships do not require nuclear fuel. - Swan
Edited on 16-12-2020 11:19
16-12-2020 11:21
Into the NightProfile picture★★★★★
(15459)
tmiddles wrote:
IBdaMann wrote:
duncan61 wrote: CLIMATE is the long term weather over a particular region.

Gibberish. .
Ha ha

Wow its like IBD is a wind up toy.

If Anti-Dictionary Man! got a toy that is.


Argument of the stone fallacy. Insult fallacies. False authority fallacy. No argument presented.


The Parrot Killer

Debunked in my sig. - tmiddles

Google keeps track of paranoid talk and i'm not on their list. I've been evaluated and certified. - keepit

nuclear powered ships do not require nuclear fuel. - Swan
16-12-2020 11:24
Into the NightProfile picture★★★★★
(15459)
keepit wrote:
The weather channel shows air disasters most every day. They are reruns.
Anyhow, they showed one the other day that demonstrated "confirmation bias".
An airliner was attempting to take off in severe weather conditions at night.
3 pilots were in the cockpit and each one of them interpreted the visual clues as to where they were on the taxiway and tried to take off on a runway that was being repaired and had construction equipment on it.
At somewhere around100 knots they ran into the equipment and the plane broke apart with approx 80 people losing their lives.


Runways that are closed are clearly marked. They are also noted on the flight briefings. They are also noted by ATC. Weather would be no factor in such a crash. Confirmation bias would be no factor in such a crash. The captain, and only the captain, is responsible.

You really shouldn't try to make up aviation stories. You have no clue about aviation.


The Parrot Killer

Debunked in my sig. - tmiddles

Google keeps track of paranoid talk and i'm not on their list. I've been evaluated and certified. - keepit

nuclear powered ships do not require nuclear fuel. - Swan
Edited on 16-12-2020 11:31
16-12-2020 11:36
keepit
★★★★★
(2218)
Is your condition getting worse? I hope not.




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