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Another crazy El Nino week


Another crazy El Nino week19-11-2015 18:21
Madison
☆☆☆☆☆
(22)
It's worth following the weekly ENSO numbers - I think we are on the way to the strongest El Nino ever observed. For the first time, the weekly numbers goes through the roof of the graph:


Edited on 19-11-2015 18:21
19-11-2015 18:25
trafnProfile picture★★★☆☆
(779)
@Madison - yes, that seems to be the consensus.


The 2015 M2C2 (Global 9/11) Denialist Troll Awards

1st Place - Jep Branner - Our Stupid Administrator!
2nd Place - IBdaMann - Science IS cherry picking!
3rd Place - Into the Night - Mr. Nonsense numbers!
4th Place - Tim the plumber - The Drivel Queen!
19-11-2015 20:03
Tim the plumber
★★★★☆
(1295)
I wonder if 2015 will make it as actually warmer than 1998? I mean actually definately warmer. Not within the error band etc.
Edited on 19-11-2015 20:03
19-11-2015 20:11
IBdaMannProfile picture★★★★★
(5230)
trafn wrote:
@Madison - yes, that seems to be the consensus.

What does "consensus" have to do with numbers? Are you trying to make a compelling argument that some religious clergy manufactured the numbers?


Global Warming: The preferred religion of the scientifically illiterate.

Printing dollars to pay debt doesn't increase the number of dollars. - keepit

When the alt-physics birds sing about "indivisible bodies," we've got pure BS. - VernerHornung

Ah the "Valid Data" myth of ITN/IBD. - tmiddles

Ceist - I couldn't agree with you more. But when money and religion are involved, and there are people who value them above all else, then the lies begin. - trafn

You are completely misunderstanding their use of the word "accumulation"! - Climate Scientist.

The Stefan-Boltzman equation doesn't come up with the correct temperature if greenhouse gases are not considered - Hank

:*sigh* Not the "raw data" crap. - Leafsdude

IB STILL hasn't explained what Planck's Law means. Just more hand waving that it applies to everything and more asserting that the greenhouse effect 'violates' it.- Ceist
19-11-2015 20:43
Into the NightProfile picture★★★★★
(10256)
Madison wrote:
It's worth following the weekly ENSO numbers - I think we are on the way to the strongest El Nino ever observed. For the first time, the weekly numbers goes through the roof of the graph:



I see you conveniently left out the 1998 El Nino.


Source: Climate Prediction Center, NOAA.
Each graph is taken from different positions along the usual path warm ocean waters move during an El Nino.


The Parrot Killer
Edited on 19-11-2015 20:46
20-11-2015 05:04
IBdaMannProfile picture★★★★★
(5230)
Into the Night wrote:
Source: Climate Prediction Center, NOAA.
Each graph is taken from different positions along the usual path warm ocean waters move during an El Nino.


Is an "El Niño" supposed to increase Global Warming, reduce Global Warming, accelerate "Climate Change" or any other dogmatic buzz-term?

Why do warmizombies care about any particular "El Niño"? (No, I'm not going to rush to read Wikipedia).


.


Global Warming: The preferred religion of the scientifically illiterate.

Printing dollars to pay debt doesn't increase the number of dollars. - keepit

When the alt-physics birds sing about "indivisible bodies," we've got pure BS. - VernerHornung

Ah the "Valid Data" myth of ITN/IBD. - tmiddles

Ceist - I couldn't agree with you more. But when money and religion are involved, and there are people who value them above all else, then the lies begin. - trafn

You are completely misunderstanding their use of the word "accumulation"! - Climate Scientist.

The Stefan-Boltzman equation doesn't come up with the correct temperature if greenhouse gases are not considered - Hank

:*sigh* Not the "raw data" crap. - Leafsdude

IB STILL hasn't explained what Planck's Law means. Just more hand waving that it applies to everything and more asserting that the greenhouse effect 'violates' it.- Ceist
20-11-2015 11:11
trafnProfile picture★★★☆☆
(779)
Into the Night wrote:I see you conveniently left out the 1998 El Nino.

Yet another cherry-picked moment by Into the light (a.k.a. - brain dead!).



The 2015 M2C2 (Global 9/11) Denialist Troll Awards

1st Place - Jep Branner - Our Stupid Administrator!
2nd Place - IBdaMann - Science IS cherry picking!
3rd Place - Into the Night - Mr. Nonsense numbers!
4th Place - Tim the plumber - The Drivel Queen!
20-11-2015 11:15
Into the NightProfile picture★★★★★
(10256)
IBdaMann wrote:
Into the Night wrote:
Source: Climate Prediction Center, NOAA.
Each graph is taken from different positions along the usual path warm ocean waters move during an El Nino.


Is an "El Niño" supposed to increase Global Warming, reduce Global Warming, accelerate "Climate Change" or any other dogmatic buzz-term?

Why do warmizombies care about any particular "El Niño"? (No, I'm not going to rush to read Wikipedia).


.


Of course not. El Nino is nothing more than warm surface waters moving from west to east. The mean ocean temperature stays the same, the mean global temperature has no reason to change. El Nino has no correlation with any temperature data from any station in the United States.

Some people just worry about it causing unusual weather, others see it as a sign the end of the world is nigh. Still others could care less about it.

As for me, I note some of the changes in weather patterns it tends to cause, nothing more.


The Parrot Killer
20-11-2015 11:17
Into the NightProfile picture★★★★★
(10256)
trafn wrote:
Into the Night wrote:I see you conveniently left out the 1998 El Nino.

Yet another cherry-picked moment by Into the light (a.k.a. - brain dead!).


Quite true. I cherry-picked that one because it shows the claim of this year's El Nino is not the strongest. I only need one El Nino to show that. So your point is?


The Parrot Killer
20-11-2015 11:38
Tim the plumber
★★★★☆
(1295)
Into the Night wrote:
trafn wrote:
Into the Night wrote:I see you conveniently left out the 1998 El Nino.

Yet another cherry-picked moment by Into the light (a.k.a. - brain dead!).


Quite true. I cherry-picked that one because it shows the claim of this year's El Nino is not the strongest. I only need one El Nino to show that. So your point is?


Thanks for injecting some rational, sensable, civilized and good reasonable words here.
20-11-2015 11:38
trafnProfile picture★★★☆☆
(779)
Into the Night wrote: Quite true. I cherry-picked that one!

Thought so!



The 2015 M2C2 (Global 9/11) Denialist Troll Awards

1st Place - Jep Branner - Our Stupid Administrator!
2nd Place - IBdaMann - Science IS cherry picking!
3rd Place - Into the Night - Mr. Nonsense numbers!
4th Place - Tim the plumber - The Drivel Queen!
20-11-2015 18:24
IBdaMannProfile picture★★★★★
(5230)
Into the Night wrote:
Quite true. I cherry-picked that one because it shows the claim of this year's El Nino is not the strongest. I only need one El Nino to show that. So your point is?


Cherry-picking is the core of the scientific method. You are to be commended on excellently picking the right data.


.


Global Warming: The preferred religion of the scientifically illiterate.

Printing dollars to pay debt doesn't increase the number of dollars. - keepit

When the alt-physics birds sing about "indivisible bodies," we've got pure BS. - VernerHornung

Ah the "Valid Data" myth of ITN/IBD. - tmiddles

Ceist - I couldn't agree with you more. But when money and religion are involved, and there are people who value them above all else, then the lies begin. - trafn

You are completely misunderstanding their use of the word "accumulation"! - Climate Scientist.

The Stefan-Boltzman equation doesn't come up with the correct temperature if greenhouse gases are not considered - Hank

:*sigh* Not the "raw data" crap. - Leafsdude

IB STILL hasn't explained what Planck's Law means. Just more hand waving that it applies to everything and more asserting that the greenhouse effect 'violates' it.- Ceist
28-11-2015 17:58
Madison
☆☆☆☆☆
(22)
So how do we measure if this El Nino gets stronger than the 1998 El Nino? Which graph to use?

The graph in the first post is updated, BTW. Last week higher again.
28-11-2015 20:35
Into the NightProfile picture★★★★★
(10256)
Madison wrote:
So how do we measure if this El Nino gets stronger than the 1998 El Nino? Which graph to use?

The graph in the first post is updated, BTW. Last week higher again.


Both graphs are from the same thing, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center data. One graph, however, shows a much longer historical record than the other. If you are going to talk about historical El Ninos, you should probably use the graph with the greatest historical record.

Anyone can watch a single tree grow and say we are going to be overrun with marauding forests.


The Parrot Killer
29-11-2015 11:25
Madison
☆☆☆☆☆
(22)
Into the Night wrote:
If you are going to talk about historical El Ninos, you should probably use the graph with the greatest historical record.


You seem to know quite a lot about the phenomenon. Do you have a link to ONE graph we can use to track if this El Nino is stronger than the 1998 El Nino? Or is it not possible?
29-11-2015 13:00
Into the NightProfile picture★★★★★
(10256)
Madison wrote:
Into the Night wrote:
If you are going to talk about historical El Ninos, you should probably use the graph with the greatest historical record.


You seem to know quite a lot about the phenomenon. Do you have a link to ONE graph we can use to track if this El Nino is stronger than the 1998 El Nino? Or is it not possible?


There is historical information extending from 1950 to the present day at
http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm.

This is information recorded by the buoys placed in the ocean which are used to collect this data. It is available here in both graphical and tabular form.

Before 1950, there was no instrumentation in place. We only have subjective descriptions of the events before then. The first recorded El Nino was in 1525 and is described by it's effects, not by any temperature measurement.


The Parrot Killer




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