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Long Term Climate Change Perspective


Long Term Climate Change Perspective07-04-2016 22:30
evolutionist
☆☆☆☆☆
(1)
Ever since I learned about the Butterfly Effect, discovered by Edward Lorenz, I've been baffled at the Climate Change discussion. I thought – and I still think – that he conclusively proved that the climate is fundamentally unpredictable. Sure, there are trends and ages, but the Man is just one factor among the multitude. I'm very worried about sea life and the extinction of species but I'm afraid there's a serious anthropocentric bias in the whole discussion.

Every other story about mammoths, vanished civilizations and extinct species mentions climate warming and cooling as a matter of fact. At turns, the Earth has been a snowball and a smothering hothouse. Evolution has been pushing on, despite of comets hitting the ground and volcanos erupting. Life has a way of keeping its head up. Oceans have risen and fallen, Ice Ages come and gone. There's been several great extinctions before Man, yet Life has always prevailed. I don't deny climate change at all, because it's always been around, from the year zero. Hoping to prevent it is a superstition, a fantasy of anthropocentric delusions of omnipotence and ignorance. What we should do, is to protect the keystone species like the big sea mammals – and clean up the plastic pollution from the seas. Forget about the coal emissions - Ma Gaia will take care of that.
08-04-2016 05:01
IBdaMann
★★★★★
(3109)
evolutionist wrote: . I don't deny climate change at all, because it's always been around, from the year zero..

Are you sure?

What is "climate" and what are its units of measure? How can I measure "climate" myself so I can verify that it has changed?


Global Warming: The preferred religion of the scientifically illiterate.

Ceist - I couldn't agree with you more. But when money and religion are involved, and there are people who value them above all else, then the lies begin. - trafn

You are completely misunderstanding their use of the word "accumulation"! - Climate Scientist.

The Stefan-Boltzman equation doesn't come up with the correct temperature if greenhouse gases are not considered - Hank

:*sigh* Not the "raw data" crap. - Leafsdude

IB STILL hasn't explained what Planck's Law means. Just more hand waving that it applies to everything and more asserting that the greenhouse effect 'violates' it.- Ceist
12-05-2016 21:28
JamesTankard
☆☆☆☆☆
(5)
IBdaMann wrote:
evolutionist wrote: . I don't deny climate change at all, because it's always been around, from the year zero..

Are you sure?

What is "climate" and what are its units of measure? How can I measure "climate" myself so I can verify that it has changed?


Climate does change over time as several proxies indicate. Around 50 million years ago changes in the assemblages of tropical plankton found in the fossil record as well as oxygen isotope ratios from marine foraminifera indicate that temperatures were much warmer. High levels of 12C isotope found in fossilized organic sources all over the world suggests that between 2500 and 8000 billion tons of carbon must have been added to the atmosphere and oceans combined leading up to this warm period called the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. Today, we have added about 300 billion tons of carbon since the pre-industrial era , but the rate of carbon emissions today is 5-10x higher than during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum.
14-05-2016 10:20
Tim the plumber
★★★★☆
(1129)
evolutionist wrote:
Ever since I learned about the Butterfly Effect, discovered by Edward Lorenz, I've been baffled at the Climate Change discussion. I thought – and I still think – that he conclusively proved that the climate is fundamentally unpredictable. Sure, there are trends and ages, but the Man is just one factor among the multitude. I'm very worried about sea life and the extinction of species but I'm afraid there's a serious anthropocentric bias in the whole discussion.

Every other story about mammoths, vanished civilizations and extinct species mentions climate warming and cooling as a matter of fact. At turns, the Earth has been a snowball and a smothering hothouse. Evolution has been pushing on, despite of comets hitting the ground and volcanos erupting. Life has a way of keeping its head up. Oceans have risen and fallen, Ice Ages come and gone. There's been several great extinctions before Man, yet Life has always prevailed. I don't deny climate change at all, because it's always been around, from the year zero. Hoping to prevent it is a superstition, a fantasy of anthropocentric delusions of omnipotence and ignorance. What we should do, is to protect the keystone species like the big sea mammals – and clean up the plastic pollution from the seas. Forget about the coal emissions - Ma Gaia will take care of that.


Yes.

Although the Gaia bit makes you sound unscientific.
15-05-2016 00:37
IBdaMann
★★★★★
(3109)
JamesTankard wrote:Climate does change over time

How do you know? What is "climate" exactly and what are the units of measure? Fossils? Are you really just talking about archeology?

Tim the Plumber never clarified when I asked him.


.


Global Warming: The preferred religion of the scientifically illiterate.

Ceist - I couldn't agree with you more. But when money and religion are involved, and there are people who value them above all else, then the lies begin. - trafn

You are completely misunderstanding their use of the word "accumulation"! - Climate Scientist.

The Stefan-Boltzman equation doesn't come up with the correct temperature if greenhouse gases are not considered - Hank

:*sigh* Not the "raw data" crap. - Leafsdude

IB STILL hasn't explained what Planck's Law means. Just more hand waving that it applies to everything and more asserting that the greenhouse effect 'violates' it.- Ceist

Edited on 15-05-2016 00:38
15-05-2016 16:10
Tim the plumber
★★★★☆
(1129)
IBdaMann wrote:
JamesTankard wrote:Climate does change over time

How do you know? What is "climate" exactly and what are the units of measure? Fossils? Are you really just talking about archeology?

Tim the Plumber never clarified when I asked him.


The units are the same as used for weather.

The aspect of climate you are interested in determines the units you will be using.

I agree that thinking of thousanths of a degree of temperature change is utterly silly in either weather or climate but that does not make the words meaningless.

Lots of words have inprecise definitions. Such as wealth.
16-05-2016 04:46
Into the Night
★★★★★
(5357)
Tim the plumber wrote:
IBdaMann wrote:
JamesTankard wrote:Climate does change over time

How do you know? What is "climate" exactly and what are the units of measure? Fossils? Are you really just talking about archeology?

Tim the Plumber never clarified when I asked him.


The units are the same as used for weather.

The aspect of climate you are interested in determines the units you will be using.

I agree that thinking of thousanths of a degree of temperature change is utterly silly in either weather or climate but that does not make the words meaningless.

Lots of words have inprecise definitions. Such as wealth.


The word climate in almost any dictionary specified a phrase similar to 'a long time'. This means there is no unit of measurement transposable between meteorology (weather) and climate.

Yes, you can mention temperature, for example, but because it's a value measured 'over a long time' that remains unspecified, there is no meaning to it. It cannot be considered a sample for use in the world of science.

This is the fundamental reason 'climate' doesn't work in data collection for scientific purposes. There is no way to quantify it, as 'a long time' is not a quantifiable unit of time.


The Parrot Killer
20-05-2016 11:36
Tim the plumber
★★★★☆
(1129)
The same can be said for the word history.

Despite this there are large history sections in libaries and book shops and we all know what it is about.

Words do not need precise definitions to work in the way they are intended often.

Edited on 20-05-2016 11:36
20-05-2016 20:31
Tai Hai Chen
★★★☆☆
(517)
Climate is usually, but not exclusively, defined as weather averaged over 30 years. This is not universally accepted definition. Climate can be defined as weather averaged over 1 year, 10 years, 100 years, 1000 years, 10000 years, 100000 years, and so on.
21-05-2016 00:07
Into the Night
★★★★★
(5357)
Tai Hai Chen wrote:
Climate is usually, but not exclusively, defined as weather averaged over 30 years. This is not universally accepted definition. Climate can be defined as weather averaged over 1 year, 10 years, 100 years, 1000 years, 10000 years, 100000 years, and so on.


And who chose these arbitrary numbers as the 'standard number of years before you call something a climate'?

Certainly not any dictionary.


The Parrot Killer
21-05-2016 10:39
Tim the plumber
★★★★☆
(1129)
You define what climate, what time periods, where and what about it when you use the word.

It's like history. Or communication. Or fashion.

Not a word with a single easy definition but we all know what area you mean.

Easy unless you are being obstructive.

Edited on 21-05-2016 10:39
21-05-2016 20:13
Into the Night
★★★★★
(5357)
Tim the plumber wrote:
You define what climate, what time periods, where and what about it when you use the word.

It's like history. Or communication. Or fashion.

Not a word with a single easy definition but we all know what area you mean.

Easy unless you are being obstructive.


You cannot quantify climate, so you cannot describe its rate of change.

You cannot quantify history, so you cannot describe its rate of change.

You can quantify communication, so you can describe the rate of communication.

You cannot quantify fashion. so you cannot describe its rate of change.

Any others words you need clarification on?


The Parrot Killer
24-05-2016 02:38
IBdaMann
★★★★★
(3109)
Tai Hai Chen wrote:Climate is usually, but not exclusively, defined as weather averaged over 30 years.

What does "averaged" weather look like? Can you give me an example of a one-week global "climate"? (just average the global weather over one week)


.


Global Warming: The preferred religion of the scientifically illiterate.

Ceist - I couldn't agree with you more. But when money and religion are involved, and there are people who value them above all else, then the lies begin. - trafn

You are completely misunderstanding their use of the word "accumulation"! - Climate Scientist.

The Stefan-Boltzman equation doesn't come up with the correct temperature if greenhouse gases are not considered - Hank

:*sigh* Not the "raw data" crap. - Leafsdude

IB STILL hasn't explained what Planck's Law means. Just more hand waving that it applies to everything and more asserting that the greenhouse effect 'violates' it.- Ceist
24-05-2016 02:44
IBdaMann
★★★★★
(3109)
Tim the plumber wrote:Easy unless you are being obstructive.

Great! It's easy. I wouldn't want to ask you something difficult.

Please give me an example of a one-week global weather average.


.


Global Warming: The preferred religion of the scientifically illiterate.

Ceist - I couldn't agree with you more. But when money and religion are involved, and there are people who value them above all else, then the lies begin. - trafn

You are completely misunderstanding their use of the word "accumulation"! - Climate Scientist.

The Stefan-Boltzman equation doesn't come up with the correct temperature if greenhouse gases are not considered - Hank

:*sigh* Not the "raw data" crap. - Leafsdude

IB STILL hasn't explained what Planck's Law means. Just more hand waving that it applies to everything and more asserting that the greenhouse effect 'violates' it.- Ceist




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