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I'm uncertain about the timeline of action from the new UN report


I'm uncertain about the timeline of action from the new UN report14-10-2018 07:50
Billy000
☆☆☆☆☆
(1)
Okay, so to prevent global catastrophe, a long list of radical global changes must be met in the next 10 years to prevent 2040 from being the beginning of the end of human civilization.

Let's pretend that humanity manages to implement 75% of the demands made by the report within 5 years but is unable to make all of the demands by the end of the 10 years. Does that mean by 2040 or whatever according to the report's estimate, that the global catastrophe will begin, or does it mean the 75% of progress made was able to prevent global catastrophe for X number of years after the 2040 estimate? Like, 2050 perhaps? In other words, that significant progress bought us time. Obviously I am just making up numbers here, but I hope you catch my drift about the nuance of what I am talking about.

I do realize the report isn't necessarily accurate based on the hoopla response of it being too optimistic according to some dissenting scientists, but for the sake of argument based on the language of the report, is what I am saying worth acknowledging?

I really ask that you only answer if you know what you're talking about and have a decent grasp of what the report actually says. I think many peoples's response to my question will be "dude, we're ****ed. Get over it" because that cynical attitude simply feels more realistic and enlightened because of how long overdue the planet is in trying to mitigate this crisis. It comes across as too emotional. I would argue that examining the nuance of the findings will make the daunting task of mitigation worth considering. It is worth looking at the smaller details that may give us hope if they do exist.
14-10-2018 11:47
Tim the plumber
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(1260)
The big issue I have is that when ever you look into any aspect of the doom it vanishes. That is there is no doom to be scared about. There simply is no real problem from a slightly warmer world.
Edited on 14-10-2018 11:47
14-10-2018 13:10
still learning
★★☆☆☆
(222)
Billy000 wrote:
...... 2040 from being the beginning of the end of human civilization.......


Does the report say anything about the end of human civilization?

I've read only a small portion of he report so far, but I haven't seen anything like that yet.

Big changes, yes. Big changes ahead whether or not 1.5 or 2 or 3 degrees C global mean surface temperature results.

Quoting from the press release: "Limiting warming to 1.5ºC is possible within the laws of chemistry and physics but doing so would require unprecedented changes, said Jim Skea, Co-Chair of IPCC Working Group III."

I personally don't have much confidence that enough of the above unprecedented changes will happen to limit the global mean surface temperature change to 1.5 or even 2 degrees C.

Slowing the changes would help though.

I do have quite a bit of confidence that first-world nations will adapt, not disappear. Third-world nations are another matter. A lot of trouble ahead in a few decades for some people.

End of human civilization as we know it? Sure, with or without climate change.
14-10-2018 22:05
Into the Night
★★★★★
(6074)
still learning wrote:
Billy000 wrote:
...... 2040 from being the beginning of the end of human civilization.......


Does the report say anything about the end of human civilization?

I've read only a small portion of he report so far, but I haven't seen anything like that yet.

Big changes, yes. Big changes ahead whether or not 1.5 or 2 or 3 degrees C global mean surface temperature results.

Quoting from the press release: "Limiting warming to 1.5ºC is possible within the laws of chemistry and physics but doing so would require unprecedented changes, said Jim Skea, Co-Chair of IPCC Working Group III."

I personally don't have much confidence that enough of the above unprecedented changes will happen to limit the global mean surface temperature change to 1.5 or even 2 degrees C.

Slowing the changes would help though.

I do have quite a bit of confidence that first-world nations will adapt, not disappear. Third-world nations are another matter. A lot of trouble ahead in a few decades for some people.

End of human civilization as we know it? Sure, with or without climate change.


The arrogance.

Who are YOU to say what the 'perfect' global temperature of the Earth is?
Who are YOU to label nations into first, second, or third worlds? Who are YOU to say that people in nation can adapt while others cannot? Who are YOU to say that anyone has any control over global temperatures?

It is not even possible to measure the global temperature of Earth. How do you expect to control it?


The Parrot Killer
15-10-2018 01:15
James___
★★★☆☆
(851)
Into the Night wrote:
still learning wrote:
Billy000 wrote:
...... 2040 from being the beginning of the end of human civilization.......


Does the report say anything about the end of human civilization?

I've read only a small portion of he report so far, but I haven't seen anything like that yet.

Big changes, yes. Big changes ahead whether or not 1.5 or 2 or 3 degrees C global mean surface temperature results.

Quoting from the press release: "Limiting warming to 1.5ºC is possible within the laws of chemistry and physics but doing so would require unprecedented changes, said Jim Skea, Co-Chair of IPCC Working Group III."

I personally don't have much confidence that enough of the above unprecedented changes will happen to limit the global mean surface temperature change to 1.5 or even 2 degrees C.

Slowing the changes would help though.

I do have quite a bit of confidence that first-world nations will adapt, not disappear. Third-world nations are another matter. A lot of trouble ahead in a few decades for some people.

End of human civilization as we know it? Sure, with or without climate change.


The arrogance.

Who are YOU to say what the 'perfect' global temperature of the Earth is?
Who are YOU to label nations into first, second, or third worlds? Who are YOU to say that people in nation can adapt while others cannot? Who are YOU to say that anyone has any control over global temperatures?

It is not even possible to measure the global temperature of Earth. How do you expect to control it?



...Unlike you, I'm part Native American. Maybe Gaia likes some of us? Of course I accept tthat there is only this physical reality which cannot be falsified.
15-10-2018 09:18
Into the Night
★★★★★
(6074)
James___ wrote:
Into the Night wrote:
still learning wrote:
Billy000 wrote:
...... 2040 from being the beginning of the end of human civilization.......


Does the report say anything about the end of human civilization?

I've read only a small portion of he report so far, but I haven't seen anything like that yet.

Big changes, yes. Big changes ahead whether or not 1.5 or 2 or 3 degrees C global mean surface temperature results.

Quoting from the press release: "Limiting warming to 1.5ºC is possible within the laws of chemistry and physics but doing so would require unprecedented changes, said Jim Skea, Co-Chair of IPCC Working Group III."

I personally don't have much confidence that enough of the above unprecedented changes will happen to limit the global mean surface temperature change to 1.5 or even 2 degrees C.

Slowing the changes would help though.

I do have quite a bit of confidence that first-world nations will adapt, not disappear. Third-world nations are another matter. A lot of trouble ahead in a few decades for some people.

End of human civilization as we know it? Sure, with or without climate change.


The arrogance.

Who are YOU to say what the 'perfect' global temperature of the Earth is?
Who are YOU to label nations into first, second, or third worlds? Who are YOU to say that people in nation can adapt while others cannot? Who are YOU to say that anyone has any control over global temperatures?

It is not even possible to measure the global temperature of Earth. How do you expect to control it?



...Unlike you, I'm part Native American. Maybe Gaia likes some of us? Of course I accept tthat there is only this physical reality which cannot be falsified.


Reduced to random phrases and words now?


The Parrot Killer




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