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Fast recovery of thick Arctic ice



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Fast recovery of thick Arctic ice16-01-2011 13:00
Frank Lansner
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(9)
A significant thick ice recovery is taking place now.



Fig 1 Arctic sea ice area (Winter, 31 dec) with colors indicating ice thickness. Data from PIPS2, US NAVY online for all to use: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/pips2/ithi.html

Fig 1 shows a fascinating inferno of trends moving up and down showing many underlying patterns. Its no wonder that PIPS2 data is not promoted by IPCC or other institutions known to promote AGW, though.

Not much of a trend in total area for these winter (31 dec) data 1998-2010. However I will start out focusing on the event around 2007. These data illustrates how the ice in 2007 was squeezed together and then how the recovery of thicker ice after 2007 has occurred in an impressing speed. With data like this, the idea that the lower 2007 Arctic sea ice level was close to a "death spiral" appears wrong. What we see is an Arctic sea ice playing with its mucles, showing that it is no way near fading away. The 2007 dip appears like an oscllation that the Arctic at any time can quickly recover from.

The area of ice thicker than 2,5 meters has almost doubled from approx 1800 km2 to 3300 km2 in just 2 years 2008-2010 as reported by Steven Goddard:
http://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/pips12_30_2010vs2008.gif

Here are how the original PIPS2 maps for 31 dec appears 1998-2010:



Fig2 The trends from fig 1 are rather easily recognized. To convert into a graph as in fig 1 I have used software that reads pixel colors (around 40-50.000 pixels used per PIPS-graphic) with only 0 - 5 pixels not able to be defined per map. I then converted data into area and volume units.
As many will be aware, this is not entirely precise due to the round shape of the earth making more southern areas count slightly more than areas closest to the north pole. However, when comparing the same date of the years, the areas occupied are rather similar from year to year and thus it is fair to compare years. So in this article, its more the trends than the absolute values you should focos on.

However, when focussing on thicker ice (nearer the North pole) the "round-Earth-problem" is reduced and allows more quantitative studies.

Here are the Ice thickness for 1 april 1999 - 2010:



Fig3
The 2007-8 dip impresses indeed but the recovery 2008-2010 is also spectacular - again revealed when focussing on the thicker ice.
Sea ice 1 april has almost doubled for ice thicker than 2,5 m.
- And more: This graphic has last point over 9 months old – cant wait to insert the 2011 apr 1 point. Should the trend 2008-2010 continue just one more year, to 2011 apr 1, then we have the highest level of thick ice measured in data since 1998.

Then the minimum ice extends around 1 October:



Fig4. For the ice minimum, the well known general dive in ice extend 1998-2007 is much more visible.
The huge peak around 2004 of thicker ice again demonstrates how stunningly fast thick ice can grow from year to year in the Arctic. Extend of thicker ice > 2,5 m doubles in just one year 2003 – 2004. This again demonstrates Arctic ice as very dynamic, where larger changes appear normal, not really alarming. If thick Arctic ice can double in one year, how should we be near a "death spiral" for Arctic ice?

Ice volume.



Fig 5
A rough volume calculation where done by multiplying area with ice thickness. In general, the years 2007-2010 are rather similar to 1998-2000.

Then the areas closer to the North pole, the ice volume trends from sea ice thicker than 2,5 m:




Fig 6. The volume of ice from sea ice thicker than 2,5 m has exploded several times, but most significant is the huge rise in sea ice volume from thick sea ice we are witnessing right now. Both the apr 1 and 31 dec volumes have almost doubled 2008-2010. The minimum extend thick-ice volume has risen "only" around 50% 2008-2010.


Above I have illustrated trends in sea ice from PIPS2 data with a focus on the strong rise 2008-2010. There are many opinions on what data is most reliable for ice thickness, PIPS2 or PIOMAS and it reaches beyond this article to fully analyse this. I believe, however, that PIPS2 from the US navy is a product developed over 30 years to be still more useful. If US NAVY uses these data for their submarines etc. (?) certainly the PIPS2 data has to have a certain degree of reliability. (To know more I have mailed the PIPS2 team some questions regarding how often they can verify their day-to-day data with actual measurements. )


I have seen some critics of PIPS2 say that the long term compares are questionable. Well, most of the graphics above shows hardly any ice decrease 1998 – 2010, so this critic is not surprising. Non the less I have thus just focussed on the thick ice 2008-2010 trend.

When all this is said, take a look at the supposed ice thickness dive 1998-2010 according to PIOMAS:



Fig 7 If PIOMAS is correct, then the 30 years of developing PIPS2 US NAVY product has been wasted. But is this likely?

One of the prominent names behind PIOMAS is the scientist Zhang from Washington University. Zhang has also made a stunning re-analysis showing that Antarctic sea surface air temperatures has risen significantly in recent decades. Below is a compare of Zhangs vs hadcrut:



Fig 8, Zhang vs Hadcrut around Antarctica. (Yes, Hadcrut is SST, Zhangs speaks of surfacce air, but these parameters should still show a more common trend over 25 years?) Zhang is not really confirmed by hadcrut, nor by TLT trends in Antarctic temperatures which are cooling, nor by a steady growing amount of sea ice around Antarctica – but Zhang and PIOMAS should be preferred when we talk ice volume in the Arctic?

A non-sceptic discussion of PIPS2 US NAVY vs. Zhangs PIOMAS:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/07/13/nsidcs-dr-walt-meier-on-pips-vs-piomas/


Readers are welcome to mail me for info on software to get precise pixelcounts of colors - a useful tool to retrieve data.

Other Articles by Frank Lansner:

http://hidethedecline.eu/pages/posts/a-brief-overview-of-chosen-frank-lansner-articles-in-english-208.php
16-02-2011 03:07
Hayduke
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(21)
Excellent post. Thanks, Frank
11-05-2011 20:51
hotair
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(11)
Curious, but kind of missing the point. If you check the PIPS2 website it says;

"PIPS 2.0 forecasts conditions in all sea ice covered areas in the northern hemisphere (down to 30°N in latitude). The horizontal grid resolution of the model is 0.28 degrees and uses 15 vertical levels. PIPS 2.0 produces forecast fields of ice displacement, ice thickness, ice concentration (ice edge) and the growth/decay of ice based on both dynamic and thermodynamic effects. PIPS 2.0 is driven by atmospheric forcing from the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric System (NOGAPS) (Hogan et al., 1991)."

Its a computer model likely using a much older climate model.


It contains no real data. You cannot conclude that the arctic ice is recovering. You can only conclude that the PIPS2 model is busted, and that the broken computer model shows ice recovery.


I suspect that the navy just uses it to get an idea about worst case conditions for arctic ice should they decide to go there. Nothing more.
RE: Fast recovery of thick ice???18-09-2012 13:34
Gray-Wolf
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(13)
We had two major event , prior to this year, that should have convinced you that the ice loss is a single direction event (with small weather alterations). The validation that the PIOMAS calcs received from both ICEBridge and Cryosat2 this year were merely the icing on the cake as far as the use of the model was concerned.It highlights well the continued decline in the amount of ice ,year on year, in the basin since the 80's with both 07' and 2010 showing a 'step change' is speed of losses.

This summers losses where always going to occur with such thin ice and low extent (within the basin( this spring. We had seen 2011's 'average' melt season destroy any gains folk thought we had made in ice age/thickness and those losses continued throughout the winter.

The question begs' how are your increases today Frank'?

The only way to start to 'recover' is to see back to back years with a summer ice cover similar to those of the 70's allowing the halocline to re-establish across the basin and provide the environment to allow ice to grow that can survive the 'perfect storm' type summers that occurred in 07' (and do so every 10 to 20 years). Any pack unable to do so is doomed , just like Franks 'recovery of thick ice' was.

We had better prepare ourselves for the seasonal pack arriving this decade and the changes that this will bring with it to the planet as a whole.
29-04-2013 21:41
Gray-Wolf
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(13)
Well , melt season here again and heavy losses ongoing to the 'drift ice' that the 'crackopalypse event' shoved over Barentsz.

With even more FY ice than ever how do folk think the increases in 3rd and 4th year ice will do this summer (considering the bulk has now drifted into Beaufort which has ended ice free the past few years no matter what ice was present in spring...including the last of the paleocryistic in 2011.
29-11-2016 07:13
litesong
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(2041)
Old thread with old worn-out heartland(heartless) lobby points but no sigh-ants worthy of a kid without a hi skule DEE-plooomaa. Most of the sigh-ants here was hiding behind the 1998 year of a very effective El Nino plus a 10 year solar TSI low(including a 3+ year solar TSI low, setting a 100 year record). But, Earth temperatures have not returned to early 20th century levels. For 385+(?) straight months, Earth temperatures have been over the 20th century average AND will continue to be so.

1990's decade of Arctic sea ice extent to date was 4% less than that of the 1980's.
2000's decade of Arctic sea ice extent to date was 10% less than that of the 1980's.
The year 2012 of Arctic sea ice extent to date was 20% less than that of the 1980's.
The year 2016 of Arctic sea ice extent to date is 23% less than that of the 1980's(the present High Arctic Berserker has decreased Arctic sea ice by another percent, now 24% less than the '80's).
The 1980's average November 1 Arctic sea ice VOLUME was 18,100 cubic kilometers. November 1, 2016 Arctic sea ice VOLUME was 6400 cubic kilometers, a loss of 11,700 cubic kilometers or a loss of 64.6%. The energy needed to melt this ice is 36 times the U.S. annual energy consumption. Since 1958, High Arctic temperature has been rising (more before satellite temperatures?). Two plus years ago, High Arctic temperature over nearly 4 million square kilometers, for 140 straight days was over average. For a few days at the end of 2015, the North Pole was THAWING! From the end of 2015 into 2016, there were 150 straight days over average temperature. For 100 straight days during that period, temperatures were 3degC to 11degC over average(no misprint). For 80 straight days presently, High Arctic temperatures are & have been over average AND MOSTLY WAY OVER AVERAGE. 100 straight days could easily pass with High Arctic temperatures over "average". 150+days could be the outcome in 2017 for the present High Arctic Berserker.
29-11-2016 20:57
IBdaMann
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(3109)
litesong wrote:150+days could be the outcome in 2017 for the present High Arctic Berserker.

I have no doubt!


.


Global Warming: The preferred religion of the scientifically illiterate.

Ceist - I couldn't agree with you more. But when money and religion are involved, and there are people who value them above all else, then the lies begin. - trafn

You are completely misunderstanding their use of the word "accumulation"! - Climate Scientist.

The Stefan-Boltzman equation doesn't come up with the correct temperature if greenhouse gases are not considered - Hank

:*sigh* Not the "raw data" crap. - Leafsdude

IB STILL hasn't explained what Planck's Law means. Just more hand waving that it applies to everything and more asserting that the greenhouse effect 'violates' it.- Ceist
30-11-2016 02:01
litesong
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(2041)
IBdaMann wrote:
litesong wrote: 150+days could be the outcome in 2017 for the present High Arctic Berserker.

I have no doubt!


You had AND have no idea.
Edited on 30-11-2016 02:05
30-11-2016 03:25
IBdaMann
★★★★★
(3109)
litesong wrote:
IBdaMann wrote:
litesong wrote: 150+days could be the outcome in 2017 for the present High Arctic Berserker.

I have no doubt!


You had AND have no idea.

litesong my good friend, your story-telling of the Great AGW Berserkers is so vivid, so enthralling that I can't get enough.



Tell me more! You rock!


.


Global Warming: The preferred religion of the scientifically illiterate.

Ceist - I couldn't agree with you more. But when money and religion are involved, and there are people who value them above all else, then the lies begin. - trafn

You are completely misunderstanding their use of the word "accumulation"! - Climate Scientist.

The Stefan-Boltzman equation doesn't come up with the correct temperature if greenhouse gases are not considered - Hank

:*sigh* Not the "raw data" crap. - Leafsdude

IB STILL hasn't explained what Planck's Law means. Just more hand waving that it applies to everything and more asserting that the greenhouse effect 'violates' it.- Ceist
30-11-2016 07:16
litesong
★★★★★
(2041)
IBdaMann wrote:
litesong wrote:
IBdaMann wrote:
litesong wrote: 150+days could be the outcome in 2017 for the present High Arctic Berserker.

I have no doubt!


You had AND have no idea.

Tell me more!


If you haven't read from another thread yet:
The High Arctic Berserkers already have had their lesser known family members poking at Antarctic glaciers for decades. Now, it appears that these lesser known siblings have broken the back of the Pine Island Glacier. So already there is a tactical retreat from the strategic war footing that never got footed.

Yeah, yeah, yeah.... dem dar High Arctic Berserkers (and siblings) got a mighty big lead that "i b da no-sigh-ants mann" & its wimpy heros "don' wanna fight".
Edited on 30-11-2016 07:17
07-12-2016 07:46
litesong
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(2041)
litesong wrote: High Arctic Berserkers... lesser known siblings have broken the back of the Pine Island Glacier.


With AGW activities occurring with the Pine Island Glacier, now a major deep crack has developed on the Larsen C Ice Shelf.
http://www.livescience.com/57109-antarctic-ice-rift-is-70-miles-long.html


Hey, these things aren't two week old babies. Often glaciers, Ice Sheets & ice shelves are thousands of years old, sometimes into the quadruple digits. Some ice shelves have shown multiple events on different shelves within years and that is considered extraordinary! Now, two events within weeks of each other starts the AGW melt-down clock, a tickin'!
07-12-2016 13:33
IBdaMann
★★★★★
(3109)
litesong wrote:
litesong wrote: High Arctic Berserkers... lesser known siblings have broken the back of the Pine Island Glacier.


With AGW activities occurring with the Pine Island Glacier, now a major deep crack has developed on the Larsen C Ice Shelf.
http://www.livescience.com/57109-antarctic-ice-rift-is-70-miles-long.html

Hey, these things aren't two week old babies. Often glaciers, Ice Sheets & ice shelves are thousands of years old, sometimes into the quadruple digits. Some ice shelves have shown multiple events on different shelves within years and that is considered extraordinary! Now, two events within weeks of each other starts the AGW melt-down clock, a tickin'!




Maybe we could put a few Zambonis up there for maintenance?



.


Global Warming: The preferred religion of the scientifically illiterate.

Ceist - I couldn't agree with you more. But when money and religion are involved, and there are people who value them above all else, then the lies begin. - trafn

You are completely misunderstanding their use of the word "accumulation"! - Climate Scientist.

The Stefan-Boltzman equation doesn't come up with the correct temperature if greenhouse gases are not considered - Hank

:*sigh* Not the "raw data" crap. - Leafsdude

IB STILL hasn't explained what Planck's Law means. Just more hand waving that it applies to everything and more asserting that the greenhouse effect 'violates' it.- Ceist
07-12-2016 19:11
litesong
★★★★★
(2041)
IBdaMann wrote:

Maybe we could put a few Zambonis up there for maintenance?



For laughs "i b da no-sigh-ants mann" continues to confuse willfully & deflect from
AGW.

God maintained & stabilized Ice Sheets & Ice Shelves for as long as 12,000 years (longer?). AGW is & will fundamentally change them.
Edited on 07-12-2016 19:37
15-12-2016 00:43
litesong
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(2041)
http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/unprecedented-arctic-warmth-in-2016-triggers-massive-decline-in-sea-ice-snow
Findings from the report:
Warmer air temperature: Average annual air temperature over land areas was the highest in the observational record, representing a 6.3 degree Fahrenheit (3.5 degree Celsius) increase since 1900.

Record low snow cover: Spring snow cover set a record low in the North American Arctic, where the May snow cover extent fell below 1.5 million square miles (4 million square kilometers) for the first time since satellite observations began in 1967.

Smaller Greenland ice sheet: The Greenland ice sheet continued to lose mass in 2016, as it has since 2002 when satellite-based measurement began. The start of melting on the Greenland ice sheet was the second earliest in the 37-year record of observations, close to the record set in 2012.

Record low sea ice: The Arctic sea ice minimum extent from mid-October 2016 to late November 2016 was the lowest since the satellite record began in 1979 and 28 percent less than the average for 1981-2010 in October. Arctic ice is thinning, with multi-year ice now comprising 22 percent of the ice cover as compared to 78 percent for the more fragile first-year ice. By comparison, multi-year ice made up 45 percent of ice cover in 1985.

Above-average Arctic Ocean temperature: Sea surface temperature in August 2016 was 9 degrees Fahrenheit (5 degrees Celsius) above the average for 1982-2010 in the Barents and Chukchi seas and off the east and west coasts of Greenland.
15-12-2016 03:09
IBdaMann
★★★★★
(3109)
litesong wrote:
http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/unprecedented-arctic-warmth-in-2016-triggers-massive-decline-in-sea-ice-snow
Findings from the report:
Warmer air temperature: Average annual air temperature over land areas was the highest in the observational record, representing a 6.3 degree Fahrenheit (3.5 degree Celsius) increase since 1900.

Record low snow cover: Spring snow cover set a record low in the North American Arctic, where the May snow cover extent fell below 1.5 million square miles (4 million square kilometers) for the first time since satellite observations began in 1967.

Smaller Greenland ice sheet: The Greenland ice sheet continued to lose mass in 2016, as it has since 2002 when satellite-based measurement began. The start of melting on the Greenland ice sheet was the second earliest in the 37-year record of observations, close to the record set in 2012.

Record low sea ice: The Arctic sea ice minimum extent from mid-October 2016 to late November 2016 was the lowest since the satellite record began in 1979 and 28 percent less than the average for 1981-2010 in October. Arctic ice is thinning, with multi-year ice now comprising 22 percent of the ice cover as compared to 78 percent for the more fragile first-year ice. By comparison, multi-year ice made up 45 percent of ice cover in 1985.

Above-average Arctic Ocean temperature: Sea surface temperature in August 2016 was 9 degrees Fahrenheit (5 degrees Celsius) above the average for 1982-2010 in the Barents and Chukchi seas and off the east and west coasts of Greenland.

litesong buddy, could you help Surface Detail? What region of the Greenland ice sheet was surveyed and found to be losing ice? What are the numbers? Surface Detail just can't seem to find any.


.


Global Warming: The preferred religion of the scientifically illiterate.

Ceist - I couldn't agree with you more. But when money and religion are involved, and there are people who value them above all else, then the lies begin. - trafn

You are completely misunderstanding their use of the word "accumulation"! - Climate Scientist.

The Stefan-Boltzman equation doesn't come up with the correct temperature if greenhouse gases are not considered - Hank

:*sigh* Not the "raw data" crap. - Leafsdude

IB STILL hasn't explained what Planck's Law means. Just more hand waving that it applies to everything and more asserting that the greenhouse effect 'violates' it.- Ceist
15-12-2016 05:29
litesong
★★★★★
(2041)
"i b da no sigh-ants mann" muffed: What region of the Greenland ice sheet was surveyed and found to be losing ice? What are the numbers?


Oh, you compiled data? That's good for someone with no science chemistry astronomy physics algebra & pre-calc in an unearned hi skule DEE-plooomaa.... & misinterprets Science Papers published in Science Journals.
15-12-2016 15:47
IBdaMann
★★★★★
(3109)
litesong wrote:
"i b da no sigh-ants mann" muffed: What region of the Greenland ice sheet was surveyed and found to be losing ice? What are the numbers?


Oh, you compiled data? That's good for someone with no science chemistry astronomy physics algebra & pre-calc in an unearned hi skule DEE-plooomaa.... & misinterprets Science Papers published in Science Journals.

Thanks litesong buddy. Surface Detail is in dire need of some accurate numbers and naturally I thought of you. Could you pass to him what you have?

You're a champ! Thanks again.


.


Global Warming: The preferred religion of the scientifically illiterate.

Ceist - I couldn't agree with you more. But when money and religion are involved, and there are people who value them above all else, then the lies begin. - trafn

You are completely misunderstanding their use of the word "accumulation"! - Climate Scientist.

The Stefan-Boltzman equation doesn't come up with the correct temperature if greenhouse gases are not considered - Hank

:*sigh* Not the "raw data" crap. - Leafsdude

IB STILL hasn't explained what Planck's Law means. Just more hand waving that it applies to everything and more asserting that the greenhouse effect 'violates' it.- Ceist
16-12-2016 01:34
litesong
★★★★★
(2041)
"i b da no sigh-ants mann" blurred: ....dire need of some accurate numbers.....

We know "i b da no sigh-ants mann", with no astronomy physics algebra & pre-calc in an unearned hi skule DEE-plooomaa can't compile & research accurate numbers & has no ability to know what ARE accurate numbers. Therefore, accurate numbers easily pass him, while it totes inaccurate numbers.
16-12-2016 03:40
litesong
★★★★★
(2041)
litesong wrote:
"i b da no sigh-ants mann" blurred: ....dire need of some accurate numbers.....

We know "i b da no sigh-ants mann", with no astronomy physics algebra & pre-calc in an unearned hi skule DEE-plooomaa can't compile & research accurate numbers & has no ability to know what ARE accurate numbers. Therefore, accurate numbers easily pass him, while it totes inaccurate numbers.


In the new spirit of accuracy demanded by....."old sick silly sleepy sleazy slimy steenkin' filthy vile reprobate rooting (& rotting) racist pukey proud pig AGW denier liar whiner i b da no sigh-ants mann", the following is an undate & correction.... demanded by "old sick silly sleepy sleazy slimy steenkin' filthy vile reprobate rooting (& rotting) racist pukey proud pig AGW denier liar whiner i b da no sigh-ants mann".

Correction & update:
We know "old sick silly sleepy sleazy slimy steenkin' filthy vile reprobate rooting (& rotting) racist pukey proud pig AGW denier liar whiner i b da no sigh-ants mann", with no science chemistry astronomy physics algebra & pre-calc in an unearned hi skule DEE-plooomaa, can't compile & research accurate numbers & has no ability to know what ARE accurate numbers. Therefore, accurate numbers easily pass him, while it totes inaccurate numbers.
13-01-2017 13:50
litesong
★★★★★
(2041)
litesong wrote: In the new spirit of accuracy demanded by....."old sick silly sleepy sleazy slimy steenkin' filthy vile reprobate rooting (& rotting) racist pukey proud pig AGW denier liar whiner i b da no sigh-ants mann", the following is an undate & correction.... demanded by "old sick silly sleepy sleazy slimy steenkin' filthy vile reprobate rooting (& rotting) racist pukey proud pig AGW denier liar whiner i b da no sigh-ants mann".

Correction & update:
We know "old sick silly sleepy sleazy slimy steenkin' filthy vile reprobate rooting (& rotting) racist pukey proud pig AGW denier liar whiner i b da no sigh-ants mann", with no science chemistry astronomy physics algebra & pre-calc in an unearned hi skule DEE-plooomaa, can't compile & research accurate numbers & has no ability to know what ARE accurate numbers. Therefore, accurate numbers easily pass him, while it totes inaccurate numbers.

Ah.... can't ferget this long AGW denier liar whiner thread (that AGW denier liar whiners would like to ferget).... all 'bout the returning ice age that AGW denier liar whiners continually predicted started 10, 20(?) years ago. Was da lat--est on the ice age we is now trapped in?
Present Arctic sea ice VOLUME is ~ 10,000+ cubic kilometers LESS than to date average VOLUME of the 1980's decade. Whoa! That sure shows ice age tendencies! Yes, the High Arctic Berserkers are rising out of the Arctic sea ice. Over the years, High Arctic Berserkers are showing longer periods of straight days OVER the average High Arctic temperature, starting with 40-50 straight day blocks of time. The last few years High Arctic Berserkers have broken triple digits..... REALLY BROKEN TRIPLE DIGITS. When the Present High Arctic Berserker (PHAB or FAB?) had been in existence for 65 straight days, it wasn't much of a prediction that the PHAB (or FA
would break triple digits....even 150 straight days. Soon enough, the PHAB (or FA
hit 20degC over temperature, backed off & ran it up to 16degC over temperature. It might be a stretch, but not an impossibility, that the PHAB (or FA
could extend to 200+ straight days. We'll see. Still no evi-dense of an ice age.
The PHAB (or FA
is now 125+ straight days of over average High Arctic temperatures. Except for 1 questionable day, the PHAB (or FA
would be 135+ straight days long. The PHAB (or FA
has helped present Arctic sea ice thickness to be 20 cm less than all other years & that is over nearly 4 million square kilometers. Thus, this one PHAB(or FA
has strongly assisted a lessening of the Arctic sea ice by 760 cubic kilometers. The quantity of energy needed to melt 760 cubic kilometers of ice, represents twice the annual U.S. consumption of energy! Present 2017 Arctic sea ice (while the PHAB--FAB continues to exist) is 300,000 to 400,000 KM2 less than any past years back to the 1980's.
Ya... not only is there no present AGW denier liar whiner evi-DENSE of an ice age, there is no evi-DENSE of an ice age for decade(s?)..... DESPITE the solar TSI being at a languid level, even a lower level of solar TSI for 10 years (including a 3+ year period setting a 100 year record breaking low).
17-01-2017 05:21
litesong
★★★★★
(2041)
The Present High Arctic Berserker(PHAB or FA
has stretched its life to 127 to 140 straight days in a row, & is now 10degC above average High Arctic temperature. Meanwhile, Arctic sea ice extent is 2.06 million square kilometers LESS than the average extent of 1980's decade.
21-01-2017 17:26
litesong
★★★★★
(2041)
litesong wrote:
The Present High Arctic Berserker(PHAB or FA
has stretched its life to 127 to 140 straight days in a row, & is now 10degC above average High Arctic temperature.

The Present High Arctic Berserker(PHAB or FA
has stretched its life to ~ 130 to 145 straight days in a row, & is now ~ 13degC above average High Arctic temperature. The Present High Arctic Berserker(PHAB or FA
appears to be on its way to 150 straight days of over-average High Arctic temperatures. 200 straight days could be possible.
23-01-2017 17:56
MK001
★☆☆☆☆
(64)
You are talking Bollocks! Check with the Canadian Weather Service.

One more thing; why do you think Greenland is called Greenland? Did the Vikings have a really developed sense of humour? or was it Green when they got there! what goes around comes around.
23-01-2017 19:00
Into the Night
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(4531)
MK001 wrote:
You are talking Bollocks! Check with the Canadian Weather Service.

One more thing; why do you think Greenland is called Greenland? Did the Vikings have a really developed sense of humour? or was it Green when they got there! what goes around comes around.


He like to quote made up data. Nothing will deflect him from that course. He's like a ship with a rigidly fixed rudder.


The Parrot Killer
24-01-2017 01:01
litesong
★★★★★
(2041)
MK001 wrote: Check with the Canadian Weather Service.

http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#T2_anom
Canada data:
http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/ensemble/naefs/semaine2/images/2017012300_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@above@normal@week2_198.png
More data showing high Arctic temperatures:
http://www.kbtx.com/content/news/Warm-Air-Invades-Arctic-Again-Slowing-Sea-Ice-Growth-411279375.html
AGW denier liar whiners are AGW denier liar whiners.
Edited on 24-01-2017 01:37
27-01-2017 21:30
litesong
★★★★★
(2041)
MK001 wrote: You are talking Bollocks! Check with the Canadian Weather Service.

Continuing from another thread:
Around 65 days existence of the Present High Arctic Berserker, PHAB or FAB

(High Arctic over-temperatures), I had predicted that FAB
could reach 150 straight days of over-temperatures. Well..... if NOT for one questionable day, FAB
would now be 153 straight days long. With that one day in consideration, the FAB
is still 138 straight days long. Presently idling at 4degC over temperature, FAB
recently sent some -59degF temps to Alaska, the cold, which has now moved west to eastern Siberia. Presently, deep longer lasting cold plunked down on the Greenland Ice Sheet. Yeah... way deeper cold than is average, even on the Ice Sheet! Anyhow, the deep cold on Alaska & Greenland blunted the FAB
, as Arctic sea ice gained strongly this latter January.
Not to forget, mid to eastern Canada has had as high as 20degC over-temperatures for 2(?) weeks & northern Scandinavia, Russia & western Siberia have above average temperatures. Yes, that Alaskan cold that moved over to Eastern Siberia is doing battle with the entrenched western Siberian warmth now.
We'll see if the FAB
can exist much longer.
Edited on 27-01-2017 21:32
28-01-2017 04:31
IBdaMann
★★★★★
(3109)
litesong wrote:
MK001 wrote: You are talking Bollocks! Check with the Canadian Weather Service.

Continuing from another thread:
Around 65 days existence of the Present High Arctic Berserker, PHAB or FAB

(High Arctic over-temperatures), I had predicted that FAB
could reach 150 straight days of over-temperatures. Well..... if NOT for one questionable day, FAB
would now be 153 straight days long. With that one day in consideration, the FAB
is still 138 straight days long. Presently idling at 4degC over temperature, FAB
recently sent some -59degF temps to Alaska, the cold, which has now moved west to eastern Siberia. Presently, deep longer lasting cold plunked down on the Greenland Ice Sheet. Yeah... way deeper cold than is average, even on the Ice Sheet! Anyhow, the deep cold on Alaska & Greenland blunted the FAB
, as Arctic sea ice gained strongly this latter January.
Not to forget, mid to eastern Canada has had as high as 20degC over-temperatures for 2(?) weeks & northern Scandinavia, Russia & western Siberia have above average temperatures. Yes, that Alaskan cold that moved over to Eastern Siberia is doing battle with the entrenched western Siberian warmth now.
We'll see if the FAB
can exist much longer.

Meanwhile, the AGW Berserker is destroying the crap out of the Arctic. Ice doesn't stand a CHANCE.



Keep fighting the good fight, lightsong!


.


Global Warming: The preferred religion of the scientifically illiterate.

Ceist - I couldn't agree with you more. But when money and religion are involved, and there are people who value them above all else, then the lies begin. - trafn

You are completely misunderstanding their use of the word "accumulation"! - Climate Scientist.

The Stefan-Boltzman equation doesn't come up with the correct temperature if greenhouse gases are not considered - Hank

:*sigh* Not the "raw data" crap. - Leafsdude

IB STILL hasn't explained what Planck's Law means. Just more hand waving that it applies to everything and more asserting that the greenhouse effect 'violates' it.- Ceist
28-01-2017 17:54
litesong
★★★★★
(2041)
litesong wrote:
MK001 wrote: You are talking Bollocks! Check with the Canadian Weather Service.
Anyhow, the deep cold on Alaska & Greenland blunted the FAB
, as Arctic sea ice gained strongly this latter January. We'll see if the FAB
can exist much longer.

Possibly, the High Arctic Berserker or PHAB or FAB
may be reasserting itself on the High Arctic. The cold that was on Alaska has moved to eastern Siberia AND was showing signs of weakening, MAY strengthen in the near future, despite the winter heat that extends from northern Scandinavia, Russia & to western Siberia. The powerful cold on the high Ice Sheets of Greenland may be moving, pushed by the vast heatwave on mid & eastern Canada (& even extending into eastern U.S.), but that is now moving towards Greenland.
28-01-2017 18:13
litesong
★★★★★
(2041)
"old sick silly sleepy sleazy slimy steenkin' filthy vile reprobate rooting (& rotting) racist pukey proud pig AGW denier liar whiner i b da no sigh-ants mann" muffs:....the AGW Berserker is destroying the crap out of the Arctic. Ice doesn't stand a CHANCE.

"old sick silly sleepy sleazy slimy steenkin' filthy vile reprobate rooting (& rotting) racist pukey proud pig AGW denier liar whiner i b da no sigh-ants mann" is having fun about my presentation of the Present High Arctic Berserker, or PHAB or FAB
& misrepresents it. It is obvious that FAB
only shows itself because excess AGW heat from the south is strongly pushing into the Arctic AND showing itself mostly in the High Arctic, during the months that direct solar energy in the High Arctic is least & even non-existent. As stated previously in past posts, tho FAB
is NOT a product of AGW, FAB
reveals itself ONLY because AGW is forcing into the High Arctic, during times of little to no direct solar energy.
Edited on 28-01-2017 18:17
09-02-2017 21:34
litesong
★★★★★
(2041)
[b]IBdaMann wrote:

We keep losing "old sick silly sleepy sleazy slimy steenkin' filthy vile reprobate rooting (& rotting) racist pukey proud pig AGW denier liar whiner i b da no sigh-ants mann".
That's OK. We got lots of old sick silly sleepy sleazy slimy steenkin' filthy vile reprobate rooting (& rotting) racist pukey proud pig AGW denier liar whiners.
11-02-2017 00:46
Wake
★★★★★
(2772)
Frank Lansner wrote: A significant thick ice recovery is taking place now.


Frank, I hope you can withstand the morons attacking you because their political agenda is totally beyond human reason.

Who ELSE would argue that we have global warming, that it's man-made, that the ONLY way to cure it is if everyone but they stop using all energy. That we can solve all of the world's problems by covering up all of the agricultural regions with solar cells that have proven themselves not to work (112 companies before this last year and "Gee we're doing better", when only half went bust last year.)

Only 2.8% of the entire world's market is serviced by the USA industry and a great deal of this are the extremely expensive and efficient monocrystalline panels used in space.
11-02-2017 01:32
litesong
★★★★★
(2041)
Wake wrote:
Frank Lansner wrote: A significant thick ice recovery is taking place now.

Frank, I hope you can withstand the morons attacking you...

I hope Frank can understand the moron that is posting to him.... specially since Frank was on this website for only 2 months & 9 posts.... & left 6 years ago.
26-02-2017 00:31
litesong
★★★★★
(2041)
litesong wrote:
litesong wrote: In the new spirit of accuracy demanded by....."old sick silly sleepy sleazy slimy steenkin' filthy vile reprobate rooting (& rotting) racist pukey proud pig AGW denier liar whiner i b da no sigh-ants mann", the following is an undate & correction.... demanded by "old sick silly sleepy sleazy slimy steenkin' filthy vile reprobate rooting (& rotting) racist pukey proud pig AGW denier liar whiner i b da no sigh-ants mann".

Correction & update:
We know "old sick silly sleepy sleazy slimy steenkin' filthy vile reprobate rooting (& rotting) racist pukey proud pig AGW denier liar whiner i b da no sigh-ants mann", with no science chemistry astronomy physics algebra & pre-calc in an unearned hi skule DEE-plooomaa, can't compile & research accurate numbers & has no ability to know what ARE accurate numbers. Therefore, accurate numbers easily pass him, while it totes inaccurate numbers.

Ah.... can't ferget this long AGW denier liar whiner thread (that AGW denier liar whiners would like to ferget).... all 'bout the returning ice age that AGW denier liar whiners continually predicted started 10, 20(?) years ago. Was da lat--est on the ice age we is now trapped in?
Present Arctic sea ice VOLUME is ~ 10,000+ cubic kilometers LESS than to date average VOLUME of the 1980's decade. Whoa! That sure shows ice age tendencies! Yes, the High Arctic Berserkers are rising out of the Arctic sea ice. Over the years, High Arctic Berserkers are showing longer periods of straight days OVER the average High Arctic temperature, starting with 40-50 straight day blocks of time. The last few years High Arctic Berserkers have broken triple digits..... REALLY BROKEN TRIPLE DIGITS. When the Present High Arctic Berserker (PHAB or FAB?) had been in existence for 65 straight days, it wasn't much of a prediction that the PHAB (or FA
would break triple digits....even 150 straight days. Soon enough, the PHAB (or FA
hit 20degC over temperature, backed off & ran it up to 16degC over temperature. It might be a stretch, but not an impossibility, that the PHAB (or FA
could extend to 200+ straight days. We'll see. Still no evi-dense of an ice age.
The PHAB (or FA
is now 125+ straight days of over average High Arctic temperatures. Except for 1 questionable day, the PHAB (or FA
would be 135+ straight days long. The PHAB (or FA
has helped present Arctic sea ice thickness to be 20 cm less than all other years & that is over nearly 4 million square kilometers. Thus, this one PHAB(or FA
has strongly assisted a lessening of the Arctic sea ice by 760 cubic kilometers. The quantity of energy needed to melt 760 cubic kilometers of ice, represents twice the annual U.S. consumption of energy! Present 2017 Arctic sea ice (while the PHAB--FAB continues to exist) is 300,000 to 400,000 KM2 less than any past years back to the 1980's.
Ya... not only is there no present AGW denier liar whiner evi-DENSE of an ice age, there is no evi-DENSE of an ice age for decade(s?)..... DESPITE the solar TSI being at a languid level, even a lower level of solar TSI for 10 years (including a 3+ year period setting a 100 year record breaking low).


The above statements in graphic form:
http://iwantsomeproof.com/extimg/siv_annual_polar_graph.png
08-04-2017 16:28
litesong
★★★★★
(2041)
litesong wrote:
Ah.... can't ferget this long AGW denier liar whiner thread (that AGW denier liar whiners would like to ferget).... all 'bout the returning ice age that AGW denier liar whiners continually predicted started 10, 20(?) years ago. Was da lat--est on the ice age we is now trapped in?
Present Arctic sea ice VOLUME is ~ 10,000+ cubic kilometers LESS than to date average VOLUME of the 1980's decade. Whoa! That sure shows ice age tendencies!.....the solar TSI being at a languid level, even a lower level of solar TSI for 10 years (including a 3+ year period setting a 100 year record breaking low).

The above statements in graphic form:
http://iwantsomeproof.com/extimg/siv_annual_polar_graph.png[/quote]

Updating this false AGW denier liar whiner thread whose premise is a lie:
2017 Arctic sea ice maximum extent was well LESS THAN 2 million square kilometers than for the year 1979. 2017 Arctic sea ice extent is so low as of Mar. 22, that 1980 DECADE average sea ice extent was NOT as low until MAY 9. Beyond that tidbit was this largebit:
At these divergent times WHEN ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT WAS THE SAME, 1980 decade average VOLUME WAS 30,000+ cubic kilometers, while 2017 VOLUME was 18,600 cubic kilometers. As mentioned above, 2+million KM2 is water that was sea ice in 1979 & readily absorbing solar energy, instead of reflecting solar heat to space.
April 1, 2017 Arctic sea ice VOLUME continues its anomalous fall. At 20,400KM3, that is 9800KM3 less than the average year of the 1980's decade. Compared to April 1, 1979, April 1, 2017 VOLUME is 11000+KM3 less. The energy needed to melt such a continuing anomalous VOLUME (an ice cube 22KMx22KMx22KM) is almost 34 times the yearly energy consumption of the U.S.
12-04-2017 03:29
litesong
★★★★★
(2041)
Robert Scribbler on coral bleaching, flooding, icebergs..... :
https://robertscribbler.com/
Edited on 12-04-2017 03:44
13-04-2017 15:03
litesong
★★★★★
(2041)
litesong wrote:
[b]IBdaMann wrote:

We keep losing "old sick silly sleepy sleazy slimy steenkin' filthy vile reprobate rooting (& rotting) racist pukey proud pig AGW denier liar whiner i b da no sigh-ants mann".
That's OK. We got lots of old sick silly sleepy sleazy slimy steenkin' filthy vile reprobate rooting (& rotting) racist pukey proud pig AGW denier liar whiners.

While "old sick silly sleepy sleazy slimy steenkin' filthy vile reprobate rooting (& rotting) racist pukey proud pig AGW denier liar whiner i b da no sigh-ants mann" is in a spiral of absentees & "missing in actions", the Present High Arctic Berserker, PHAB, or FAB
.......CONTINUES. As surmised (by me) months ago, FAB
is over 200 STRAIGHT days of existence (now 215+ straight days) of High Arctic over-temperatures. If not for 1 questionable day, FAB
would be 230+ straight days long of over-temperatures.
This is stunning. Generally, regular weather can easily over-whelm & reduce the effects of AGW. Half a century ago (longer?), weather limited straight over-temperature days to 30 to 40+ days. But AGW has powered up over-temperature periods. Now in the High Arctic, during periods of low or no direct solar radiation, FAB
s now reign over regular weather.
These are NOT passing events, but will continue into the future.
17-04-2017 20:39
litesong
★★★★★
(2041)
Fast recovery of thick Arctic ice.... NO!
Average Arctic sea ice thickness for this date, for the 1980's decade, was 2.3 meters thick. Present Arctic sea ice thickness for this date, 2017, is a bit over 1.5meters thick. Not only is the ice 0.8 meters thinner, but the present ice is ~ one & 2/3rds million square kilometers LESS than the average of the 1980's.
01-05-2017 19:45
litesong
★★★★★
(2041)
litesong wrote: Fast recovery of thick Arctic ice.... NO!
Average Arctic sea ice thickness for this date, for the 1980's decade, was 2.3 meters thick. Present Arctic sea ice thickness for this date, 2017, is a bit over 1.5meters thick. Not only is the ice 0.8 meters thinner, but the present ice is ~ one & 2/3rds million square kilometers LESS than the average of the 1980's.


Properly announced here & repeated from other threads:
///////
Present High Arctic Berserker or FAB
is dead..... long live FAB
!!!
A mid-Siberian cold front that developed between two warm Siberian fronts, strengthened & sent a fairly narrow cold band directly to the North Pole. Simultaneously, the cold front that has been a long-time Canadian resident due to cold upwelling Northeastern Pacific Ocean waters that sent cold air into Canada, made stronger incursions into the High Arctic. Despite normal increasing warmth due to ever increasing direct solar radiation at this time of year, FAB
could not stay ahead of the average High Arctic temperature curve.
FAB
existed for a powerful 230+ days(almost 235 days?), an extreme presentation of the extreme AGW warming occurring in the High Arctic, which is an extreme reflection of general AGW Earth warming, due to increasing man-made non-phase change, infra-red energy absorbing GHGs AND their feedbacks AND AGW controlled phase change, infra-red energy absorbing GHG water vapor AND its feedbacks.
Present High Arctic Berserker or FAB
is dead..... long live FAB
!!!
Edited on 01-05-2017 19:45
19-06-2017 17:46
Wake
★★★★★
(2772)
Gray-Wolf wrote:
Well , melt season here again and heavy losses ongoing to the 'drift ice' that the 'crackopalypse event' shoved over Barentsz.

With even more FY ice than ever how do folk think the increases in 3rd and 4th year ice will do this summer (considering the bulk has now drifted into Beaufort which has ended ice free the past few years no matter what ice was present in spring...including the last of the paleocryistic in 2011.


The charts I saw showed a rapid recovery of the ice but not to previous levels. But we always have to remember that we haven't had monitoring of the true Arctic Ice levels until about 1980. So we have no idea what "normal" is. We CAN say that the USS Skate nuclear submarine surfaced into open water at the North Pole in 1955. And the following year the USS Nautilus surfaced there through very thin ice.
21-06-2017 00:54
litesong
★★★★★
(2041)
"old sick silly sleepy sleezy slimy steenkin' filthy vile reprobate rooting (& rotting) racist pukey proud pig AGW denier liar whiner wake-me-up" woofed: We CAN say that the USS Skate nuclear submarine surfaced into open water at the North Pole in 1955. And the following year the USS Nautilus surfaced there through very thin ice.

"wake-me-up" continues dozing, since I refuted its mention of Skate & Nautilus last time. Both Skate & Nautilus had their difficulties under the Arctic sea ice. From the Skate's captain's 1960 book:
"Surface at the Pole: The Extraordinary Voyages of the USS Skate,"[4] where Calvert said, "Seldom had the ice seemed so heavy and so thick as it did in the immediate vicinity of the pole. For days we had searched in vain for a suitable opening to surface in."[5] The closest was to make radio contact at the surface from a polynya around 30 nm away, but not to surface fully owing to the risk of damage from ice.[4] Skate did manage to surface and make contact with Drifting Ice Station Alpha at 85ºN, 300 nm away.[6]
As for the Nautilus:
....she entered the Chukchi Sea, but was turned back by deep drift ice in those shallow waters. On 28 June she arrived at Pearl Harbor to await better ice conditions.......By 23 July 1958 her wait was over, and she set a course northward......The most difficult part of the journey was in the Bering Strait. The ice extended as much as 60 feet (18 m) below sea level. During the initial attempt to go through the Bering Strait, there was insufficient room between the ice and the sea bottom. During the second, successful attempt to pass through the Bering passage, the submarine passed through a known channel close to Alaska.....
//////////
As of recent years, even sea doos, entering the Arctic seas from the Bering Strait, have worked their way thru the entire Alaskan Arctic waters & only been stopped after exploring a fair west to east portion of the High Arctic Canadian mainland AND EVEN INTO PARTS OF THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO.
As many AGW denier liar whiners have done in the past, "old sick silly sleepy sleezy slimy steenkin' filthy vile reprobate rooting (& rotting) racist pukey proud pig AGW denier liar whiner wake-me-up" makes past explorations of the Arctic appear to be cakewalks. But past explorations of the High Arctic have been dangerous & at times, Arctic conditions repulse the most valiant efforts.
/////////
"wake-me-up" & the other AGW denier liar whiner waifs pretend their stories of surfacing submarines show less Arctic sea ice before the 80's. Of course, there weren't decreases, as closer examinations of submarine logs indicate.
Edited on 21-06-2017 00:57
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