May 19 2012, 23:18

Accuracy of climate model predictions: links

Forum about climate change and global warming | General | Climate debate in general

Desertphile	Accuracy of climate model predictions: links
Posts: 30 Joined: 15.02.11	Posted on 15-02-2011 03:19
Posts: 30 Joined: 15.02.11	Climate models have been and are extremely accurate: http://www.copenhagendiagnosis.com/ http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/pdf/TAR-12.PDF http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/1988/1988_Hansen_etal.pdf http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2006/2006_Hansen_etal_1.pdf http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2007/2007_Hansen_etal_3.pdf http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/318/5850/629 http://www.iac.ethz.ch/people/knuttir/papers/knutti08natgeo.pdf Edited by Desertphile on 15-02-2011 03:27
Hayduke	RE: Accuracy of climate model predictions: links
Posts: 23 Location: Santa Cruz, California Joined: 15.02.11	Posted on 15-02-2011 17:29
Posts: 23 Location: Santa Cruz, California Joined: 15.02.11	[quote]Desertphile wrote: Climate models have been and are extremely accurate: No, we don't yet know how accurate climate models are. Climate models do not provide evidence , they provide hypotheses that must be checked against the climate record. There has been insufficient time elapsed to draw any conclusions about their accurcy.
hotair	RE: Accuracy of climate model predictions: links
Posts: 11 Joined: 11.05.11	Posted on 11-05-2011 21:28
Posts: 11 Joined: 11.05.11	Hayduke: They have been verified. Many times. The real issue is which model to choose. For the most part, the models are more about what happens when we as a people decide to do anything. i.e. do we keep burning at a tremendous rate, or do we pull back to 1990 levels? etc. Check out our arctic circle; http://www.ec.gc.ca/adsc-cmda/default.asp?lang=En&n=77842065-1 As expected the arctic's heat is vastly higher than the world's average temperature. As predicted. In days gone by (1991 ish) there was a contest to simulate what would happen if we suddenly released huge amounts of CO2 from 1 location. You got it.... It was Saddam lighting the oil fields on fire. 1 year later, they compared their predicted future of the mideast region, and the actual temperature changes. More than half were spot on... the other half were off by a bit. (Some downright wrong.) More to the point, all predicted the warming of the region, which then occurred. I well and truly wish I could find any papers on it. What I saw was a military presentation.

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