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Accuracy of climate model predictions: links


Accuracy of climate model predictions: links15-02-2011 04:19
DesertphileProfile picture☆☆☆☆☆
(33)
Climate models have been and are extremely accurate:

http://www.copenhagendiagnosis.com/

http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/pdf/TAR-12.PDF

http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/1988/1988_Hansen_etal.pdf

http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2006/2006_Hansen_etal_1.pdf

http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2007/2007_Hansen_etal_3.pdf

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/318/5850/629

http://www.iac.ethz.ch/people/knuttir/papers/knutti08natgeo.pdf
Edited on 15-02-2011 04:27
15-02-2011 18:29
Hayduke
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[quote]Desertphile wrote:
Climate models have been and are extremely accurate:

No, we don't yet know how accurate climate models are. Climate models do not provide evidence , they provide hypotheses that must be checked against the climate record. There has been insufficient time elapsed to draw any conclusions about their accurcy.
11-05-2011 23:28
hotair
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Hayduke: They have been verified. Many times. The real issue is which model to choose. For the most part, the models are more about what happens when we as a people decide to do anything. i.e. do we keep burning at a tremendous rate, or do we pull back to 1990 levels? etc.

Check out our arctic circle;
http://www.ec.gc.ca/adsc-cmda/default.asp?lang=En&n=77842065-1

As expected the arctic's heat is vastly higher than the world's average temperature. As predicted.


In days gone by (1991 ish) there was a contest to simulate what would happen if we suddenly released huge amounts of CO2 from 1 location. You got it.... It was Saddam lighting the oil fields on fire.

1 year later, they compared their predicted future of the mideast region, and the actual temperature changes.

More than half were spot on... the other half were off by a bit. (Some downright wrong.)

More to the point, all predicted the warming of the region, which then occurred.


I well and truly wish I could find any papers on it. What I saw was a military presentation.




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